The Ben Revere Deal A Good One For The Phillies

Ruben Amaro surprised me today. Not only did he make a good trade (which he has done before), he also got a player that I didn't see us getting. Ben Revere is a good, young, talented player who doesn't cost much. Yes, the Phillies paid a price, but no, this is not at all a risky trade.

Let's start with the obvious: Vance Worley and Trevor May is not a small price. The price the Phillies paid is already being compared to the price the Nationals paid for Denard Span, which was just prospect arm Alex Meyer. Let's just line-up Revere and Span for a minute and take a look at the comparison:

• Denard Span- 28 years old- Five year, $16.5 million deal, $3.3 million average-annual value through 2014- 2012 stats: .283/.342/.394/.738, 4 HR, 41 RBI's, 17 SB's, 128 Games, 568 PA's, 71 Runs, 105 OPS+- Career Average Stats (Five Years)- .284/.357/.389/.746, 4.6 HR, 46 RBI's,  18 SB's, 117.8 Games, 534.2 PA's, 72 R's, 104 OPS+.
• Ben Revere- 24 years old- Club controlled in 2013, $515,000, arbitration eligible after this year at best, free agent after 2016- 2012 stats: .294/.333/.342/.675, 0 HR, 32 RBI's, 40 SB's, 124 Games, 553 PA's, 70 Runs, 89 OPS+- Career Average Stats (Two Plus Years)- .278/.329/.323/.642, 0 HR, 32 RBI's, 37 SB's, 127 games, 532 PA's, 63.5 R's, 79 OPS+

So let's start with the obvious- they're similar players, but Span is more accomplished right now. Revere plays more games and steals more bases, but Span is otherwise getting the better, so far. Span has also been a starter for nearly five full years, Revere for one and a half. Revere is younger, had a better 2012,  and appears to be improving across the board (besides power). He's also nearly $3 million cheaper. To get four years of Revere, who projects to improve, as opposed to two for Span, who appears to be in his prime, the price was adding a major league starting pitcher to the prospect arm. It's also worth noting that Meyer has had a much more steady minor league season than Trevor May, was picked higher in the draft, and probably projects a little higher in the rotation. Both may have big league stuff, but the Nationals gave a little bit higher prospect than the Phillies. 

Exactly how we compare these trades will be revisited obviously once all the players involved actually play, however I'd say the Phillies did fine here. They got an upgrade on starting Mayberry in center (which is how they finished 2012), got a player who projects to be around a while, and now could potentially put a very young outfield on the field opening day.

As far as Revere goes, the big knocks on him are his power and his on-base percentage. It's true, Revere does not have power, and that was really exposed at Target Field. Many good lead-off men did not have much power. I guess we'll put that strike against him though. As for his on-base percentage, and it's relative closeness to his average- yes, that's true too. Revere hit in the two-hole in Minnesota, which put him smack between Span and Joe Mauer. Not a lot of pitchers were going to pitch around Revere and go after those guys, so he saw a lot of good pitches to hit. If he struck out more than 54 times, I might be worried about this, but he doesn't appear to be undisciplined. He hit .294 and didn't strike out much, so I'm not too worried about his pitch selection right now. His strikeout rate of 9.4% is very low, about 10% off of the league average.

The Phillies current line-up is fairly cheap, even with Ryan Howard around. Here's where the Phillies would be at if they opened today:

1. Jimmy Rollins- SS- $11MM AAV
2. Ben Revere- CF- $515K AAV
3. Chase Utley- 2B- $12.14 MM AAV
4. Ryan Howard- 1B- $25 MM AAV
5. Carlos Ruiz- C- $3.34 MM AAV
6. Dom Brown- RF- $515K AAV
7. Darin Ruf- LF- $480K AAV
8. Kevin Frandsen- $800K AAV

That entire group adds up to $53.79 million for this year. This is considerably down from where they've been, though I doubt this is the final product. I would expect to see either a third baseman or left-fielder added soon, if not more. Adding Revere at such a discount price does not prohibit them from doing whatever they want now. Want Josh Hamilton? Go ahead and get him. Want Chase Headley? You can afford the extension. Want Young, Youkilis, or someone else at third? Ok, go get them. They have the money available. What they may not be as comfortable with is giving up prospects for anyone else available on the trade market now. I doubt the Phillies would be dying to move either catcher, Biddle, or a De Fratus or Aumont type of reliever for many of the players left. In addition though, they do need a fourth starter type, unless their willing to go into the season with both Tyler Cloyd and Kyle Kendrick in the rotation. 

So who's on my shopping list now?

• Outfield- Josh Hamilton remains a possible target, while Michael Bourn does not. Hamilton is not going to get more than five years anyway, and I'm not sure I'd have a problem giving it to him. If the Phillies don't want to pay him though, Ryan Ludwick would be interesting to me, if he doesn't go back to the Reds quickly. Cody Ross may make sense, though I'm not sure the fans or Ross would love to have him here, as he may not get the playing time he wants. I'm not crazy about Scott Hairston or Raul Ibanez though. Raul had a nice post-season, and I like him, but he's not a full-time left-fielder, or for that matter a regular platoon guy in my eyes. I'd be fine if the Phillies did nothing here, and entered the season with Ruf, Revere, and Brown across the outfield, and Mayberry and Nix on the bench.
• Third Base- Chase Headley is my ideal, but I don't see any reason it happens right now. Kevin Youkilis seems costly, but they can afford it, and they should take a look at fellow free agent Jeff Keppinger as well. If the Michael Young proposed rumor goes down, and the Phillies only give up a Schwimer/Rosenberg/Savery type, plus an A baller, I'm alright with that, so long as the Rangers eat half or more of the money. If they make an outfield move, I wouldn't even scream bloody murder if they went into the season with Frandsen and Galvis at the position, though that's not optimal.
• Starting Pitcher- Ryan Dempster and Kyle Lohse jump out to me. I don't think an Anibal Sanchez or Zack Greinke is an option for the Phillies, though I'd never count us out. Dempster and Lohse top my list, but if not them, then the Phillies should proceed in scouring the trade market, though that may be more expensive. I'm on board with Dempster right now.
• Bullpen- Mike Adams seems like the right option to me now. If not him, they will need to work the phones and look for a relief pitcher who can pitch late in the game via trade.

There's still lots to be done, but everyone can relax now- the Phillies filled centerfield at least.

Comments

[matthew nellis]

its weird that nobody mentions michael morse. his bat would fit well in the lineup and he can play any outfield spot..plus he'd be cheap. only bad thing is that he would only come from a trade. getting young and morse would boost the offense alot and be cheap enough to where alot of money could be spent on the bullpen. i say get Young, Morse, Shaun Marcum, and bullpen arms..

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