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February 24, 2014

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awh™

Well, you're probably correct about who makes the bench and the bullpen being the only question marks.

The bullpen is pretty intriguing, because I can see a lot of scenarios unfolding.

Opening the season, I see Papelbon, Bastardo and Lincoln (who's out of options) as locks.

I agree that Diekman has to earn it, but if he can maintain the command he had late last season he'll make it.

The rest are a tossup, and I really think they love Aumont's arm enough to give him a lot of slack.


Munson
Rosenberg
Aumont
De Fratus
Horst
Stutes
Garcia

could all make the team out of ST in various scenarios, though I think if Diekman makes the team they may not want to keep 3 lefties and that would send Horst down.

Adams will open the season on the DL, it look like, so if he is effective he'll replace someone at some point.

Rich Wilkins

I wanted to leave the DL stuff until later in camp, but I'm glad you brought it up, because Adams will probably be on the DL, as could potentially Cole if they want to come north with an extra arm and he's going to be a week or two late. I agree with you that the Phillies will give Aumont every chance possible. He has a great arm, and right now he's Ruben's screw up. I lack confidence in him right now, even in the Spring, to show enough though. My guess is that he's behind Stutes and Horst right now. I also think Martin, no matter what he does, will be closing in Allentown.

awh™

We disagree on Martin. I think they'll keep him stretched out as a starter, just because they lack SP depth.

Now, as the season develops, if one of the younger arms like Mario Hollands or even Biddle or Severino Gonzalez shows enough at the beginning of the season in the minors, they may make the move and put Martin in the bullpen where he seems to belong.

John Hilton

Galvis will make the team, likely at the expense of Frandsen. Defense, versatility, and a .300 BA in September and Winter Ball all weigh in Galvis' favor.

awh™

Yeah, they migt just eat Frandsen's money if he won't take a AAA assignment.

Of course, his contract is guaranteed, so he gets paid anyway.

Rich Wilkins

You guys don't know how much I hope you're right about Galvis over Frandsen. I'd love to see some young guys who can grow make this team. I don't believe it will happen, but I hope you guys are right, and i'm wrong.

As for Martin, I feel like making him start more is a waste of time, but it wouldn't be the first time I disagreed with Ruben...

awh™

Rich, I think Martin probably belongs in the 'pen. IMO this is his last gasp if he wants to be a MLB starter.

I just think the SP depth is so bad at this point that he'll start out there.

I would not be surprised to see him finish the season as a reliever.

Dickie Thong

I don't think I could take another year of Mayberry. Giving him a guaranteed deal was foolish.

Rich Wilkins

Mayberry's deal is slightly different than Frandsen's. With Frandsen, we gave him an actually guaranteed deal, instead of entering into the arbitration process with him, as I understand it. I think that was foolish, but we did it. Mayberry, if we cut him, is only owed 6 weeks of pay. That's really not too horrible.

Dickie Thong

According to a recent Matt Gelb article on philly.com, Mayberry's deal is guaranteed.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/John-Mayberry-Jr-Kevin-Frandsen-signed-guaranteed-contracts.html

Phillibuster

I'd love if Galvis beat out Frandsen, but that's primarily because Frandsen is bat-exclusive at this point, and primarily against LHP. His glove is a minus at every position.

Also, let's not pretend that Galvis is ever going to be a legitimate bat. That .309 September BA accompanied a .321 OBP, and he only managed it with a .357 BABIP. If you normalize for BABIP (his season number was .273, so let's give him the benefit of the doubt up to .300 in all), he still would have posted a seasonal slash of somewhere in the .245/.295/.385 range. I tend to think of that as his ceiling, unless something changes.

awh™

" His glove is a minus at every position."


Buster, true. And where Frandsen is concerned that's probably always been true, hence his relegation to an MLB bench.

awh™

BTW, nice to see you and dickie over here.

Phillibuster

Eh, I think Frandsen could probably - at one point - muster an average-ish glove at 2nd. Technically I guess he's probably still there at 1st, but he doesn't have the bat to stick there for even one or two games.

The bigger problem is that his bat isn't good enough in a non-platoon... And possibly not even then.

FantasyNerd

I just don't see how the Phillies will choose to carry 6 outfielders and Frandsen as the only possible infield substitute. He's the most sure fire to make the bench, and given that he's one of the only guys that can hit lefties(.289 career vL .311 in 2013); and he can not only cover 2b and 3b (and SS apparently) but he can actually put that knack for hitting lefties to use by subbing Howard at first. Whether Howard is healthy or not he still just can't hit lefties.

That leaves Mayberry, Ruf and Abreu fighting for 2 spots; and Hernandez and Galvis fighting for another. Though it's possible albeit unlikely that both Hernandez and Galvis make the squad, since they could conceivably see enough time in the outfield to be worth while.

But neither of them making it mean that they trust Ruf to cover First, believe Asche is fully prepared to be an every day starter, and that Utley will not need days off to remain healthy and that Byrd, Brown and Revere require more maintenance/days off/substitutions than Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Asche. The infield needs far more insurance that the outfield at this point.

In all honesty Ruf is the most likely to start the season in AAA. I think they'll at least give Abreu a chance to prove he's still got something left, and they just avoided arbitration with Mayberry, meanwhile Ruf isn't arbitration eligible until 2017 as of now.

The situation you've laid out for the bench is just not going to work over a 162 game season. It's probably the least like scenario aside from Frandsen missing the roster all together.

nokwurst

The guaranteed deals to both Frandsen & Mayberry are really gumming up the works. I agree w/ many that a bench of Galvis & Ruf is considerably better, but the contracts make it likely they'll both start the season at LV.

Even more frustrating when you consider that neither Frandsen nor Mayberry HAD to be kept w/ arbitration. Could have chanced offering them MiLB deals, and if they left, no big loss.

Phillibuster

I tend to think that it'd be really hard to carry Ruf on the bench due to his poor outfield D. It's not impossible, but our starters will likely need enough breathers to make carrying 2 1B/DH-exclusive types difficult.

nokwurst

I don't consider Ruf to be 1B/DH exclusive. Sure he's a subpar OF, but he can play there occasionally and not hurt you too bad (not any worse than Dom, though that's not exactly a ringing endorsement.)

I think if you go w/ a bench of Abreu, Ruf, Galvis & Hernandez, mostly everything is covered (as well as can be given the options):

LH bat: Abreu
RH bat: Ruf
INF defense: Galvis
CF defense: Hernandez
LF/RF defense: um, well...

Alternatively you can pencil in Gwynn Jr. for Hernandez, which gives you late-game baserunning.

Phillibuster

Nokwurst: See, there's where we differ. I don't think he even has Brown-level defense, and is in fact quite a bit worse. He's got worse range, a worse arm, a slightly-worse glove... About the only thing he may do better is run routes.

Compound that by having our LF be the younger (and thus, less likely to miss time) corner outfielder, and it only looks more problematic.

Frank Klose

I just wanted to thank you all for following us. I saw Dickie's comment on the other site. Not many are on Typepad, and I had to restrict comments thanks to spam, so we have not been able to get much chat going. You are always welcome here!

You can follow us on facebook . com / philliedelphia to get a steady stream of posts, too. I think many commenters choose that to comment, but you're most welcome here!

awh™

Frank, just keep the new threads coming and many of us may permanently migrate here. BL is dying a slow death from neglect.

bullit

thanks for the warm welcome, Frank. that was a great discussion. some of BL's all-stars. hope it continues and grows. the headers are great. and the font is very readable by these old eyes.

my only contribution is that i think the sample size on ruf's OF play is pretty small. at least RF. i saw him make some very nice plays out there. a sliding catch into foul territory. and he banged the wire wall pretty hard trying to make one catch. (if the ball isn't in your glove when you make the first step onto the warning track, it is too late to catch it safely.) i too am baffled and dismayed by the GC to frandsen and mayberry.

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