Philliedelphia

Phillies Weekly Preview 5/20-5/26

Another winning week against decent competition. After a 4-3 trip out West, now the Phillies put up a 3-2 trip out East, and things are not necessarily looking up, but at least looking okay at 21-23, 4.5 out in the NL East.

Philadelphia Phillies (21-23, NL East-3) @ Miami Marlines (12-32, NL East-5)
Where: Marlins Park
When: Monday-Wednesday 7:10
TV: CSN Monday- Tuesday, PHL 17 on Wednesday.
Pitching Match-Ups:

Monday- Cole Hamels (1-6, 4.61) vs. Alex Sanabia (2-6, 5.00)
Tuesday- Tyler Cloyd (0-0, 2.84) vs. Jose Fernandez (2-2, 3.48)
Wednesday- Cliff Lee (4-2, 2.83) vs. Kevin Slowey (1-4, 3.44)

On the Phillies- Well, they just won a series against the mighty Reds, and did so dramatically beating Aroldis Chapman. They will be looking to build momentum here.

On the Marlins- They're not going anywhere, but their rotation is tougher than one might have thought.

PREDICTION- It won't be pretty or easy, but the Phillies will win 2 of 3.

Phillies @ Washington Nationals  (23-21, NL East-2)
Where: Nationals Park
When: Friday 7:05, Saturday 7:15, Sunday 1:35
TV: Friday CSN, Saturday FOX, Sunday PHL 17
Pitching Match-Ups:

Friday- Kyle Kendrick (4-2, 2.82) vs. Jordan Zimmerman (7-2, 1.62)
Saturday- Jon Pettibone (2-0, 3.00) vs. TBD
Sunday- Hamels vs. TBD

On the Nats- They have some injury issues in the rotation, making it probable that we'll see Haren and Duke over the weekend, in some order. They're a pretty similar team to the Phillies so far- good pitching, bad hitting. They're similar in record too. I won't call this series "big," but it's been on my calendar.

PREDICTION- Friday night features two hot pitchers, then both teams pitching "issues" come into play after that. I can't stand the Nats, so this is hard to pick. I'll make myself sick a moment. Nats 2 of 3.

Phillies Weekly Preview, 5/13-5/19

"DDDeeeeeeellllllmmmmmoooonnnnn! Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

The week ahead....

Philadelphia Phillies (18-21, NL East-3) vs. Cleveland Indians (21-16, AL Central-2)

Where: Citizens Bank Park
When: Tuesday 7:05, Wednesday 1:05
TV: CSN
Pitching Match Ups:

Tuesday- Scott Kazmir (2-1, 4.87) vs. Jon Pettibone (2-0, 3.63)
Wednesday- Corey Kluber (2-2, 5.64) vs. Cole Hamels (1-5, 4.18)

On the Indians- Now this is an offensive squad. They've played their way to within a half-game of first place Detroit. They swept us out there, in case you forgot.

On the Phillies- The Phillies weren't pretty, but they had their best week of the season in my view, going 4-3 out west playing San Francisco and Arizona. At just 4.5 games out, it's a small miracle they haven't been dusted by Atlanta or Washington yet.

Prediction- Pettibone crashes to Earth tonight, Hamels finally gets a little offense tomorrow to earn the SPLIT.

Phillies vs. Cincinnati (22-16, NL Central-2)

Where: CBP again
When: Friday 7:05, Saturday 4:05, Sunday 1:05
TV: PHL 17 Friday and Sunday, FOX on Saturday
Pitch Match Ups:

Friday- Anthony Cigriani (2-0, 2.89) vs. Cliff Lee (4-2, 2.86)
Saturday- Bronson Arroyo (3-4, 3.76) vs. Kyle Kendrick (4-1, 2.47)
Sunday- Homer Bailey (1-3, 3.83) vs. Jon Pettibone

On the Reds- It's worth noting that the Phillies did not win a game in Ohio earlier on. Here come the Reds again, who can hit, pitch better than they used to, and swept us once.

On the Phillies- Not much needs to be said that wasn't said above.

Prediction- I think the Phillies play a lot better this time and take a game, maybe two. 2 OF 3.

Phillies Weekly Preview, 5/6-5/12

The most interesting thing I saw at the game on Satuday was Cracker Jack Man, the best vendor in the stadium.

Well, that week sucked. The Phillies are down to 14-18, and frankly look like a disaster in the making. This week could get really ugly.

Philadelphia Phillies (14-18 NL East-3) @ San Francisco Giants (19-12, NL West-1)
Where- AT&T Park in San Francisco
When- Monday 10:15, Tuesday 10:15, Wednesday 3:45
TV- CSN

Pitching-
Monday- Cliff Lee (2-2, 3.46) vs. Madison Baumgartner (3-0, 1.55)
Tuesday- Kyle Kendrick (3-1, 2.43) vs. Tim Lincecum (2-1, 4.41)
Wednesday- Jon Pettibone (2-0, 3.24) vs. Barry Zito (3-1, 3.06)

On the Phillies- What do I even write? We just lost two straight to the Marlins. We stink right now. We're going to find out how injured our $20 million righty is. Things are a joy.

On the Giants- The Giants have won 2 of the last 3 World Series, have ya' heard? Baseball's best team until proven otherwise is in first place, and hot right now.

PREDICTION- I'm tempted to say we win a game here. I bet not though. We're getting SWEPT.

Phillies @Arizona Diamondbacks (16-15, NL West-3)
Where- Chase Field in Phoenix
When- Thursday 9:40, Friday 9:40, Saturday 8:10, and Sunday 4:10
TV- Thursday-Saturday CSN, PHL 17 on Sunday

Pitching-
Thursday- Cole Hamels (1-4, 4.34) vs. Patrick Corbin (4-0, 1.80)
Friday- TBA vs. Ian Kennedy (1-3, 5.19)
Saturday- Lee vs. Trevor Cahill (1-3, 2.84)
Sunday- Kendrick vs. TBA

On the Phillies- See above.

On the Diamondbacks- They've been slightly better than us.

PREDICTION- We avert total disaster. SPLIT.

Doc, Hurting the Team, and Chasing the Ring

Photo by Rich Wilkins

Roy Halladay is one of the best players of the last 15 years, if not the best pitcher of that time. No one will argue that. The man was putting up sub-3.00 ERA's, 200 innings, 15 wins, and lots of complete games per year, on a team that never reached the playoffs in Toronto. He did so in a division where the Yankees and Red Sox were great teams consistently, and later the Rays joined them. Then, he finally was traded to Philadelphia, where he was on a contender. He promptly threw a perfect game, threw a playoff no-hitter, won a Cy Young, won 20 games, and won three playoff games in two seasons. He's got 200 career wins, a couple of Cy Youngs, the most memorable playoff performance of his generation in the post-season, to go with a bunch of top ten Cy Young finishes. He's going to Cooperstown someday.

Unfortunately, that's just not enough for Doc, and that's clear now. Last year when he began to slip, it was clear that he was hurting. He pitched through for a while, then finally admitted he was hurt. It was a lat pull at the time, then by the time this season started, we learned he was having lower back pains. When he started poorly this season, we thought he was hurt, and then he managed to get it together for three really good starts. Then the last week happened.

Yes, Doc should have told the Phillies he was hurt. He can't pitch like this. Yes, the Phillies had to sit him down. I have a hard time though with blaming him. That a $20 million pitcher who is the most accomplished player on the roster really wanted to help his team, and really believed he could do his job better than anyone else is not a shock. It's also what you want to hear. It's clear though that he was hurting the team now. He can't get anyone out if he can't get the Marlins out. It's painful, but Doc shouldn't be allowed back out there unless Dr. Yocum says he's got no structural damage, and the Phillies can watch him throw and see noticeable improvement from where he's been this season. I don't care what your track record is, when you have the worst ERA of any starter in baseball, we have a problem.

Why did Doc do this though? It's clear that he badly wants a World Series ring. There would be something really wrong if his last good chance was Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS. In a sports culture that is obsessed with individuals getting rings in team sports, it's what defines Michael Jordan as "great," and Barry Bonds as somehow less. Doc does not want to be defined by playing most of his career on a team that could not win. How can he be, to be honest? It makes little to no sense, but the drive for one ring will make players do dumb things. Like play hurt.

Don't Get Too Excited About Doc's Replacement

Morgan on-deck yesterday. By Rich Wilkins

I got the texts yesterday-

"So Morgan or Biddle replaces Halladay now?"

Uh, no.

Let's review. Neither is on the 40 man roster, the first issue. Secondly, I doubt the Phillies are trying to fill that 40th spot right now, it takes away flexibility in other areas. Finally, there's the fact that neither is really ready, despite their immense talent.

Say what?

Let's start with Biddle, because it's even more ridiculous that he's in the discussion of anyone at all. Biddle's the best talent in the pitching corps down there. He struck out 16 guys in AA just two weeks ago. He's a talent, no doubt. He also went 0.2 of an inning in his last start, facing seven hitters and retiring only two. Reading lost that game 15-5. He was not good. It doesn't mean give up on him, obviously. It means he has work to do. No shame in that, but that is not a sign he belongs on the big club now.

Then there's Morgan. I got an up-close-and-personal view on him yesterday. It wasn't pretty. He battled through four innings, surrendering four runs. Yes, he struck out a lot of guys (6), and you can see the talent in him. Between him and Francisco Liriano (doing a rehab stint), the first four innings felt like they took four days. Morgan's command can evade him, and this is the second time I've seen that. He had trouble controlling the ball in the exhibition game with Reading that I was at too. I still like him to make this team, or some team, next season, but not now. He needs to develop his command on multiple pitches, including all of his off-speed stuff. He's not quite there yet. He will be, but he's not yet. Let's not forget, he's basically pitched two months above A ball so far. Maybe in a month or two my view will change here. In fact, probably. He's been very good in AAA overall, and I'm kind of dumping cold water on this based on a couple of times seeing him. In his favor is that he's on schedule to start for Halladay.

Just forget Ethan Martin too, while we're at it. He's struggled with command. So if all the young guys with plus stuff are out, who's in?

I'd be literally shocked if they don't call up Tyler Cloyd. He's pitching well right now after a bad start. He wasn't great last September, but he was totally passable as a fifth starter. He's the furthest along in his development. I'd be shocked if it's not him. If it's not, I'll start believing Ruben's desperate.

Why are we Discussing Giancarlo Stanton?

From Stanton's Twitter

Let me start with this- I'd love to have Giancarlo Stanton in Philadelphia for the next decade. Seriously. The guy is a certified beast, and in Philly he'd play in meaningful games. Imagine him splitting up Utley and Howard, or hitting behind Howard, or whatever else you want to do with him!

There's no reason to discuss him though. We do not have the trade chips, and the ones we do should not be shipped out for him. If you were the Marlins, don't you ask for Biddle, Morgan, Quinn, and Joseph to start? Yeah, exactly, we don't have the chips. I would not move any of them right now if I had my way, and there's no scenario where I move them all. Biddle and Morgan may be in the 2014 rotation (if not 2013), Quinn would be selling low, and Joseph is the catcher next year, if it were me running the team. With three free agent starting pitchers, and three of the five infield spots also being open, there's just no way I could make that trade right now.

Sure, if I could get away with getting Stanton for less than the price above, I'd consider it, but if we go lower, some other team will outbid us. I'd be open to sending Brown or Ruf for Stanton but I'd want a signed an extension quickly too. Frankly, I just think the cost is higher than we can afford to send for him. If we get a deal, take it, but I don't see it. I think we're riding out this season as is.

Phillies Outfield No Good

The Phillies outfield has the lowest OPS in the majors, and Ruben screwed up to make it this way. If you're reading about the Phillies though, you already know that. I'm going to ignore Delmon Young for a minute, who A.) has only played two games, B.) hasn't played the field yet, and C.) actually has a few walks and has hit a homer. We just have enough of a sample on him. We do have enough of a sample on Ben Revere, Dom Brown, John Mayberry Jr., and Laynce Nix. I'll also ignore the jettisoned Ezequiel Carrera.

On the guys we know about, here's their numbers-

• Ben Revere- .204/.245/.226/.471, 0 HR, 0 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 9 R, 5 BB, 6 SB. 100 PA
• Dom Brown- .244/.317/.378/.695, 3 HR, 3 2B, 0 3B, 11 RBI, 8 R, 9 BB, 0 SB. 101 PA
• John Mayberry Jr.- .242/.324/.470/.794, 2 HR, 7 2B, 1 3B, 6 RBI, 9 R, 8 BB, 1 SB. 74 PA
• Laynce Nix- .250/.321/.417/.737, 2 HR, 2 2B, 0 3B, 6 RBI, 5 R, 5 BB, 0 SB. 53 PA

I'm dumbfounded by Revere's numbers. How the hell do you have 1 XBH in your first 100 PA's? How do you have a .471 OPS? You used to have Bobby Abreu in this outfield challenging .471 with his OBP. He's been awful, and while the other CF options from the off-season have been too, Ben's just not going to be able to keep playing like this. Maybe Mayberry or Brown have to play over there. That's awful. Brown's only been okay, and while no one wants to discuss his future, a .695 OPS isn't going to cut it. I'm less concerned by his .244 than I am by his lack of walks and his 6 XBH's. I can live with Mayberry and Nix's numbers- as long as I'm getting that from non-starters. 

So what else is available? 

• Darin Ruf- .267/.319/.512/.831, 4 HR, 9 2B, 0 3B, 15 RBI, 13 R, 0 SB, 7 BB. 93 PA
• Jermaine Mitchell- .250/.340/.477/.816, 1 HR, 5 2B, 1 3B, 5 RBI, 9 R, 3 SB, 5 BB. 49 PA

Realistically, this is it. Gillies has a .507 OPS. So here's the question I pose- how long do the guys above get before Ruf takes someone's job? I recognize that Delmon is here now, and he'll take one spot, but just how long do Ben and Dom get to play through this? Dom's clearly not in the same boat as Ben, but I'm not sure either is safe. I like Ruf's line, but even with him, i'm not sure we're going to get everything we want. We may just have to ride out a long year with this group.

The Phillies outfield has the lowest OPS in the majors, and Ruben screwed up to make it this way. If you're reading about the Phillies though, you already know that. I'm going to ignore Delmon Young for a minute, who A.) has only played two games, B.) hasn't played the field yet, and C.) actually has a few walks and has hit a homer. We just have enough of a sample on him. We do have enough of a sample on Ben Revere, Dom Brown, John Mayberry Jr., and Laynce Nix. I'll also ignore the jettisoned Ezequiel Carrera.

On the guys we know about, here's their numbers-

• Ben Revere- .204/.245/.226/.471, 0 HR, 0 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 9 R, 5 BB, 6 SB. 100 PA
• Dom Brown- .244/.317/.378/.695, 3 HR, 3 2B, 0 3B, 11 RBI, 8 R, 9 BB, 0 SB. 101 PA
• John Mayberry Jr.- .242/.324/.470/.794, 2 HR, 7 2B, 1 3B, 6 RBI, 9 R, 8 BB, 1 SB. 74 PA
• Laynce Nix- .250/.321/.417/.737, 2 HR, 2 2B, 0 3B, 6 RBI, 5 R, 5 BB, 0 SB. 53 PA

I'm dumbfounded by Revere's numbers. How the hell do you have 1 XBH in your first 100 PA's? How do you have a .471 OPS? You used to have Bobby Abreu in this outfield challenging .471 with his OBP. He's been awful, and while the other CF options from the off-season have been too, Ben's just not going to be able to keep playing like this. Maybe Mayberry or Brown have to play over there. That's awful. Brown's only been okay, and while no one wants to discuss his future, a .695 OPS isn't going to cut it. I'm less concerned by his .244 than I am by his lack of walks and his 6 XBH's. I can live with Mayberry and Nix's numbers- as long as I'm getting that from non-starters. 

So what else is available? 

• Darin Ruf- .267/.319/.512/.831, 4 HR, 9 2B, 0 3B, 15 RBI, 13 R, 0 SB, 7 BB. 93 PA
• Jermaine Mitchell- .250/.340/.477/.816, 1 HR, 5 2B, 1 3B, 5 RBI, 9 R, 3 SB, 5 BB. 49 PA

Realistically, this is it. Gillies has a .507 OPS. So here's the question I pose- how long do the guys above get before Ruf takes someone's job? I recognize that Delmon is here now, and he'll take one spot, but just how long do Ben and Dom get to play through this? Dom's clearly not in the same boat as Ben, but I'm not sure either is safe. I like Ruf's line, but even with him, i'm not sure we're going to get everything we want. We may just have to ride out a long year with this group.

Darin Ruf Putting Pressure On Domonic Brown With Hot Streak

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

Darin Ruf hit his third homer in three days yesterday. He's 8-for his last-13, with three doubles and three homers in the last three days. He was off to a slow start, but now starts to look like he's ready to go.

The Phillies seem content to leave him in AAA right now. With that said, if he keeps it up, and they continue to hit with inconsistency, how long does he stay down? No, he won't play first, but he's playing more left-field. So is Dom Brown. Dom's not lighting the world on fire right now. Delmon Young hit well last night, but that's not enough sample to call him safe.

It's a story to watch. If Ruf keeps hitting, it will get more and more difficult to justify him in the minors.

Grading the Phililes: April Report Card

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

We're a month into the season, and the Phillies are a 12-15 team. They have an inconsistent offense, basically solid starting pitching, a good bench so far, and a terrible bullpen besides the back-end guys. Here's where we're at.

Start with the good stuff- the A grades:

• Pinch-Hitters- Yes, all of them. It seems like the only way the Phillies score any late-inning runs.
• Kyle Kendrick- He's not your 2010 Kendrick.
• Papelbon- Even if he says stupid stuff about Obama taking his guns, if he keeps saving games, I'm for him.
• Bastardo- Not much needs to be written beyond his numbers.
• Utley and Young- Really good first months from guys who we were told were "too old" to be good.
• Health- Most of the health issues have been avoided.

Now the pretty good stuff- the B grades:

• Cliff Lee- He wasn't unhittable every start, but he was damn good this month.
• Mike Adams- A couple of shaky spots this month don't ruin an overall solid body of work.
• Jimmy Rollins- I can't say too much bad about his opening month.
• Frandsen, Galvis, Mayberry, and Nix- Their numbers aren't eye-popping, but I wouldn't say any of them really were putrid in their roles this month. They were good as pinch-hitters, and passable when forced to start.
• Jon Pettibone/John Lannan/5th starters- Lannan looked like he was off to a good start before he got hurt. Pettibone did better than I thought he would after getting the shot. He's shaky, but that's life with a rookie 6th starter.

Now the mediocre stuff- C grades:

• Ryan Howard- This is an unfair grade to one of my favorite players ever. His numbers aren't bad at all, but this wasn't a "great" Howard month. He lacked power for much of it. They need him to hit long balls.
• Cole Hamels- He's coming on fine now, but the first two starts were terrible. He'll be fine, and his grade will improve.
• Dom Brown- He's not been great yet, but he's shown some flashes of power. The Phillies need more from him. If his next month is like the first month, he'll fall on this scale. Still, he wasn't really awful.

Not good stuff. D grades:

• Management of the games- I've seen several decisions I felt made games worse, or cost us them. Not good at all.
• Catching- The Phillies were actually starting Quintero because Doc liked him better. Dare I say this, it was ugly. Only Kratz's power numbers saved this from failure.
• Doc Halladay- He was at a C going into tonight, and stunk tonight. Having an ERA over six after a month is bad.
• Phillippe Aumont- He's hanging on by a thread at this point.

Failing grades. F:

• Ben Revere- Maybe we should have sought more offense? I defended this move hard, so this one hurts. I hope he shows me that .294 stroke soon.
• Durbin/Valdes/Horst- The only thing worse than one mop-up guy is two.... or three...
• Base-running- Yeah, no more going on contact with zero or one outs and a guy on third.
• GM work- We already have DFA'ed three players and still have two garbage time, multi-inning relievers in this pen. Yay off-season!

It's only a month, so relax. This team will play better, hopefully soon. Last night's game just put me in a crappy mood to do this.