Philliedelphia

Phillies' Postseason Roster: Reserve Position Players

In a previous post, we determined that the Phillies' postseason roster would likely include (at least in the first round) fifteen position players. They have one open spot for a position player who was not on the MLB active roster on 8/31, provided they don't use that spot on a reliever. The "definites" we projected earlier are:

Definite Position Players (9): Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco,
Mayberry, Jr., Ibanez, Victorino, Pence

Let's fill the rest of the first round playoff roster, by position.

Catchers

Brian Schneider (125 PA, .227 wOBA)

Erik Kratz (no MLB stats)

Schneider has had a pitiful season offensively, but the Phillies like his "defense" or "veteranosity", or something. Kratz posted an impressive .372 wOBA in AAA (409 PA). I might have DFA'd Schneider in July, and promoted Kratz, but that may be because Kratz and I have a history. Kratz may be the backup catcher in 2012, but Schneider will be the backup catcher for the playoffs.

Reserve Catcher (1): Schneider

Infielders

Wilson Valdez (285 PA, .274 wOBA)

Michael Martinez (227 PA, .247 wOBA)

Pete Orr (96 PA, .246 wOBA)

The Phillies will likely carry two backup infielders. They could try to get by with one, but it probably wouldn't be worth risking an injury situation, for the benefit of another weak pinch-hitting option. These guys already provide weak pinch-hitting options. Expect Valdez and Martinez to make the roster, with Orr an injury replacement, if needed.

Reserve Infielders (2): Valdez, Martinez

Outfielders

We have room for three additional outfielders/pinch-hitters, one of whom could be a player who was not on the MLB roster as of 8/31 (such as Domonic Brown, or Brandon Moss).

Ben Francisco (276 PA, .313 wOBA)

Ross Gload (103 PA, .252 wOBA)

Domonic Brown (209 PA, .323 wOBA)

Brandon Moss (no MLB stats, 506 PA/.380 wOBA in AAA)

John Bowker (26 PA, .165 wOBA (MLB)/.363 wOBA in AAA)

Ross Gload, despite his lack of success at hitting, or the ability to offer any sort of value on defense, gets one of the three spots. The Phils like him as a PH, and have kept him around all season to be a postseason pinch-hitter.

Ben Francisco has had a decent MLB season, and is the only right-handed batter here. He grabs the second spot.

That leaves one spot left, with the "extra" playoff roster spot still available. Domonic Brown, Brandon Moss, and John Bowker are the remaining candidates. Bowker has struggled in MLB this season, and appears likely to be nothing more than a potential injury replacement for Ross Gload.

Moss has had a great AAA season, but he is a AAAA-quality player. Domonic Brown had a good July in MLB, but then was demoted to AAA, where he struggled mightily (offensively and defensively). Both are left-handed batters, and would likely only see postseason time as pinch-hitters. The last two weeks of the season could decide this spot. Brown is a key to the Phillies' future. If Brown is still strong mentally, despite his recent struggles in AAA, expect him to be included on the playoff roster.

Reserve Outfielders (3): Francisco, Gload, Brown

Phillies' Postseason Roster: Pitching

In the previous post, we determined that the Phillies are likely to carry ten pitchers in the postseason's first round. The projected definites:

Starting Pitchers (4): Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt

Relief Pitchers (3): Madson, Bastardo, Worley

This leaves three postseason roster spots open, with eight candidates to fill them: Brad Lidge, David Herndon, Kyle Kendrick, Mike Stutes, Joe Blanton, Michael Schwimer, Justin De Fratus, and Joe Savery. (Note that Savery is the only left-handed pitcher in the group.) Before we look at the candidates, there are two points of business to cover.

Eligibilty

Any player who was on the Phillies' MLB roster, as of August 31st, is eligible for the playoff roster. Any player who was in the Phillies' organization (i.e. minor leagues) on August 31st is eligible, as a replacement for a Disabled player. Jose Contreras (remember him?) is out for the season, and leaves an opening for a single minor leaguer to join the playoff roster. Among the pitchers competing for this one (possible) spot are Schwimer, De Fratus, and Savery. (This one spot could also be used for a position player, such as Domonic Brown, Brandon Moss, Pete Orr, or Erik Kratz.) It's possible that the Phillies will opt not to use this "extra" spot at all. They could also save it for a later round, and/or switch this one player each round.

Mistakes were made

The Phillies have a historically dominant starting rotation. It is very reasonable to expect that their starting four (plus Ryan Madson) will consume the large majority of the postseason innings.

But the bullpen has more than it's share of question marks. The Phillies should have anticipated these bullpen issues, and started addressing them sooner.

• Antonio Bastardo, in his first full season as a MLB reliever, has pitched in sixty-one games. This heavy workload appears to be affecting the young reliever, at a most inopportune time. Given Bastardo's importance as Madson's setup man, as the sole (currently) viable bullpen lefty, and as a potentially crucial piece of what projects as a very young bullpen in 2012, Bastardo's usage has been unconscionable.
• Michael Schwimer, Justin De Fratus, and Phillippe Aumont had outstanding seasons in AAA. However, only Schwimer (9.1 IP) has seen any time in MLB. If the three had been given some MLB time in August, it's possible one (or all) could be a viable option for the postseason bullpen. At worst, their respective viabilities for the 2012 bullpen could have been investigated, which would have aided in making offseason transactions/free agent signings.
• Joe Blanton has pitched only two innings, since his return from injury. A stretched-out-for-starting, healthy Blanton would not have cracked the playoff rotation. He could be one of the top six relief choices, but his lack of use render him a poor choice.

The (Probable) Final Three Relievers

Brad Lidge (15 IP, 3.66 xFIP)

Lidge has been wild, walking an obscene 7.2 batters, per nine innings. But, given his pedigree, and Manuel's style, it seems very likely that he will make the playoff roster. Hopefully, he won't see too many high leverage situations, and will benefit from some BABIP-luck in the postseason.

David Herndon (53.1 IP, 4.16 xFIP)

Herndon has pitched well, but three bad outings have scorched his stat-line. He does a good job inducing ground balls (54.9 GB%), and is a satisfactory middle reliever.

Kyle Kendrick (106.1 IP, 4.44 xFIP)

Kendrick has ridden a .259 BABIP to a successful season. His woeful 4.49 K/9 makes him a better fit for a AAA bullpen, than a MLB bullpen. He's adequate as a long reliever, and could help save the bullpen from overwork, if a rain delay knocks out the starting pitcher. With Vance Worley projecting as a crucial setup relief option, Kendrick is the best choice for the long relief role, despite not being a very good pitcher.

The Others

Mike Stutes (56.2 IP, 4.30 xFIP)

Stutes has been helped greatly by his .250 BABIP, and 80.4 LOB%. His K/9 of 8.42 is good, but his 4.13 BB/9 is bad news for any pitcher, particularly a reliever, who may inherit baserunners. He could be an option for a later round.

Joe Blanton (35.1 IP, 3.54 xFIP)

Blanton has been cursed by a .359 BABIP, and injury problems this season. Almost all of his appearances have been as a starter. As stated above, he hasn't pitched enough since his return, to be considered a viable option for the playoff 'pen.

Michael Schwimer (9.1 IP, 4.91 xFIP)

Schwimer had an incredible AAA season: 2.45 FIP, 11.38 K/9, 2.91 BB/9. But in his short MLB stint, he has been BABIP'd (.346), and has posted an unwieldy 6.75 BB/9. He has a bright future, but hasn't done enough to merit a postseason roster spot. If only he been recalled sooner...

Justin De Fratus (no MLB stats)

De Fratus, like Schwimer, had ridiculously good AAA numbers: 2.44 FIP, 12.29 K/9, 2.41 BB/9. With no MLB time under his belt, it's unlikely that he sees postseason time. De Fratus should be part of the MLB bullpen in 2012.

Joe Savery (no MLB stats)

Savery has had one of the strangest seasons in memory. Rejected in the Rule 5 Draft, was a heavy-hitting position player in the lower minors, finished as a reliever in AAA. His AAA stats: 25 IP, 1.84 FIP, 9.36 K/9, 2.16 BB/9. He doesn't have enough MLB innings (or any innings, really) to be considered for the playoff bullpen... except for the fact that he is left-handed. If Bastardo can't pitch, Savery would likely make the squad as the sole southpaw. If the Phillies want to carry two lefty relievers, at some point in the postseason, Savery is in. It could be argued that the Phillies would be better off choosing one of their more experienced relievers, rather than rostering Savery due to his left-handedness. But it's certainly within the realm of possibility that Savery sees some postseason action, a thought that would have seemed ludicrous even a month ago.

Phillies' Postseason Roster: The Definites

With a postseason berth guaranteed, the Phillies will look to lock up the NL East, and to assure themselves of homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The Phillies, through their impressive regular season performance, have afforded themselves two luxuries: they can use these final two weeks to give their regulars some much-needed rest, and to determine the makeup of their postseason roster. Perhaps surprisingly, considering their success, the Phillies have some decisions to make when constructing that roster. The Phils won't make any choices based solely on the final two weeks, but there are several "bubble" players who should have the opportunity to help (or hurt) their chances. In this post, we'll determine how many/which players appear assured of playoff roster spots, and how many openings will remain for the rest.

There is one question to answer first- how many pitchers, and how many position players will the Phillies carry? This question could very well have one answer for the first, shorter best-of-five series, and a different answer in the later rounds. For now, we'll simply consider the first round.

A typical playoff team would likely carry fourteen position players (six bench players), and eleven pitchers on the postseason roster, even in the shorter opening round. A seventh reliever (assuming four different starting pitchers are used) would seem to be more potentially-valuable, than a seventh reserve position player. That hypothetical seventh position player is not likely to be very good, and would be relegated to pinch-hitting/serving as an additional (redundant?) insurance policy against injury. The seventh reliever could be used situationally (a LOOGY, perhaps?), or provide another option in an extra-inning (or rain-delayed) game.

However, the Phillies are not a typical playoff team. Yes, their seventh reserve position player won't be very good. But the team's strength is an innings-eating starting rotation, which severely mitigates the need for a seventh reliever, particularly in the shorter first round. It appears probable that the Phillies will begin the playoffs with fifteen position players, and ten pitchers.

Definite Starting Pitchers (4): Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt

If the Phillies fall behind in the series, two games to one, it's possible that Halladay will come back on three days' rest for Game 4, with Lee on regular rest in the fifth game. Most likely, the Phillies will use four starting pitchers. An argument could be made that Vance Worley, and not Roy Oswalt, should be the fourth starter. Worley has had an excellent season, but does anyone really think Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel will choose him over the established veteran Oswalt? Given Oswalt's career success, and a balky back that makes the irregular usage of a reliever a poor fit, expect Worley to be the one coming out of the bullpen.

Definite Relievers (3): Madson, Bastardo, Worley

Yikes. Not a lot of definites here. Three projected openings remain, with the likes of Brad Lidge, David Herndon, Mike Stutes, Kyle Kendrick, Joe Blanton, Michael Schwimer, Justin De Fratus, and Joe Savery in the mix. Interesting decisions to be made here, which we'll discuss in our next post.

Definite Position Players (9): Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Mayberry, Jr., Ibanez, Victorino, Pence

As Mayberry, Jr., has earned (at minimum) a platoon with Raul Ibanez, six projected bench openings remain. We'll look at the options for those spots, in a later post.

Undeserving Domonic Brown Enters Hall of Fame

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

(Spoiler Alert: The following was originally posted on July 25, 2033, as part of BleacherReportPhilly's Hall of Fame Induction coverage. It may contain spoilers if read prior to that date.)

Domonic Brown

Former Phillies' outfielder Domonic Brown was enshrined in Major League Baseball's Hall of Fame today, as the once-proud institution continued to lower their standards for inclusion. The underachieving Brown spent all seventeen years of his MLB career in Philadelphia, as General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr., and his successor, Scott Proefrock, repeatedly failed to cash in on the lazy rightfielder's plummeting trade value. Brown was an innocent bystander on twelve World Championship squads, as the selfish cleanup hitter reaped the benefits of a consistently strong surrounding cast.

Brown, who had notably poor baseball instincts, was best-known for his second-inning baserunning blunder in Game 4 of the 2016 World Series. Brown singled to start the inning, but was picked off first base by Blue Jays' starter Kyle Drabek, who took advantage of Brown's inattentiveness. (Replays indicated that the lackadaisical Brown should have been called safe, but a true gamer would never have put himself in that position to begin with.) Brown would later hit a pair of three-run homers in the game, his fourth and fifth of the Series, providing unnecessary offense in the Phillies' 13-1 sweep-clinching victory.

The overrated Brown made a career of fattening his statistics in meaningless situations. Brown frequently took advantage of his friendly home ballpark, hitting 212 of his 549 career homers at Citizens Bank Park. (Much to the chagrin of Phillies' fans, Brown finished his career atop the franchise's home run list, displacing the highly-popular Mike Schmidt, a true and exemplary Hall-of-Famer.) Brown collected three Triple Crowns, benefitting from poor and unlucky seasons by other, superior ballplayers, in addition to the advantage of never having to face the Phillies' dominant pitching staff. Excessively patient at the plate, the overpaid Brown paced the NL in walks eight times, despite being highly-compensated to actually contribute offensively. Brown always fared well in contemporary defensive metrics, but anyone who saw him play on a regular basis noticed his poor route-taking, his inaccurate arm, and his general apathy in the outfield.

Brown's Induction Speech was given by former Phillies' second-baseman Chase Utley. Utley, unlike Brown, is a true and exemplary Hall of Famer. Utley's speech wisely focused on Brown's actions outside the lines, including the highly-succesful Brown Foundation. BF managed to eradicate crime and illiteracy in the State of Pennsylvania, through little fault of the penurious Brown. Brown donated a mere 91% of his career earnings to the Foundation, while splurging on non-essentials for himself, such as his luxurious 800 sq. ft. home in Northeast Philadelphia's ritzy Holmesburg area.

Vance Worley shuts down Marlins, Gets optioned to AAA after game

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

 

Vance Worley

Vance Worley threw seven shutout innings on Monday, as the Phillies beat the host Marlins, 1-0. Worley has allowed only two runs, in his last twenty-five MLB innings, lowering his ERA to 2.20. For his efforts, Worley was dispatched to the Lehigh Valley IronPigs after the game.

No cause for concern, however, as this is a temporary demotion. With Worley not scheduled to make another MLB start prior to next Tuesday's All-Star Game, he'll return to AAA to stay on his typical routine. Expect him to return to the Phils, after the All-Star break, when his spot in the rotation comes up again.

The Phils will likely use Worley's vacated spot on the active roster to reinforce the bench. With centerfielder Shane Victorino currently day-to-day, expect hot-hitting outfielder John Mayberry, Jr. to return to the Phils.

Charlie Manuel, Master Tactician

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

(Spoiler Alert: The following is an excerpt from Digipedia, Version 5.0. It may contain spoilers, if read prior to December 31, 2061.)

 

Charlie Manuel, Master Tactician

Despite being the most successful manager in the history of his sport, Manuel was not always regarded as a great strategist. While his ability to manage his clubhouse was rarely called into question, his tactical moves were once frequently derided. In Manuel's early years as Phillies' Manager, though he was highly successful from a winning percentage standpoint, he was oft-criticized for questionable management of his pitching staff, as well as his inability to create properly-optimized lineups.

It wasn't until the middle of the Phillies' 2011 season (See also: 2011 Philadelphia Phillies, Baseball's Greatest Teams) that Manuel began to gain his reputation as one of baseball's greatest innovators. In a seemingly innocuous personnel move on June 23, 2011, relief pitcher Juan Perez was recalled from the Phillies' AAA Minor League affiliate at the time, the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (See also: Allentown Stoners.) In each of Perez' first three appearances, he faced only a single left-handed batter. Though loogification had been used throughout baseball for many years, Manuel had not previously embraced that particular tactic. When asked about his utilization of Perez, Manuel responded, "My job is to put my players in the best possible position to succeed. It's their job to win ballgames.", which would become the quote for which Manuel is most well-known (See also: Famous Quotations (MLB/ILB)). Loogification became a more widely accepted practice, as teams continued to imitate Manuel's successful deployment of a left-handed relief specialist, and became commonplace when active rosters were expanded to twenty-seven players (See MLB Rule changes (2019)).

Manuel's innovations continued throughout the World Championship 2011 season, and in the three one-hundred win seasons that followed. Early in his managing career, Manuel frequently allowed his starting pitchers to pitch deep into games, even if conventional leverage theories had dictated otherwise. He adapted his usage, beginning in the 2012 season, and is credited for extending the careers of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels (See also: Baseball Hall of Famers, List of).

Manuel also began to utilize an Alpha Reliever, using Ryan Madson during the highest leverage situations, rather than relegating his best reliever to endgame operations. The remainder of his bullpen pitched in defined roles, according to game leverage.

Manuel began to optimize his batting orders, including batting the pitcher in the eighth position, which served to maximize offensive production. Manuel realized the importance of the first two spots in the batting order, placing his two most effective offensive players atop the lineup.

Manuel's rotational defensive alignments, which included Shane Victorino (See also: Presidents of the United States) as a flex defender, changed the way the sport is played. Attempting to copy Manuel's success, his strategies were copied throughout all levels of baseball. Among current ILB franchises, only the St. Louis Cardinals and A.C. Milan play without a flex defender. The "Second Era" (2011-2023) of Charlie Manuel's managing career produced a winning percentage of .653, eight World Championships, and left a legacy of brilliant innovation.

The Phillies' Bench Construction: The Truth Revealed

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

The Minion's fist struck Phillies' General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. squarely in the mouth. The captive Amaro remained emotionless and unperturbed. "I'll never tell you our secrets.", Amaro stated dispassionately, directing a mixture of blood and broken teeth at his interrogator. Red Sox' General Manager Theo Epstein was similarly unmoved, lifting his left leg slightly to shake the shattered remains of Amaro's front teeth from the bottom of his khaki pants. "All I need to know is how many lights you see, Phillie.", Epstein responded flatly, "How many lights?"

***

"Ruben, this is a waste of time. We shouldn't be concerned about an event that has such a low probability of occurrence.", Phillies' Assistant General Manager Scott Proefrock argued. Proefrock had learned a great deal from these private meetings in Amaro's Citizens Bank Park office, and he suspected he might be in for yet another lesson.

Amaro pondered a response, as he sipped from his glass. "Cliff Lee's return was highly improbable, and we planned for that eventuality. The possible effects of this event certainly dwarf that, though I must admit that the probability is lower."

Proefrock grimaced, ignoring his own drink. "We've taken every possible precaution to ensure your safety. Ever since we hired (former reliever) Rudy Seanez as Head of Security, we haven't even had an attempt on your life. Well, I guess there was that thing the Mets tried to pull, but I would hardly classify that organization as a threat of any kind."

Amaro nodded. "Seanez has done a commendable job. Much better than he did the last time he worked for me. But I just like to be prepared."

Proefrock continued to ignore his drink. "Well, I've got the emergency protocols, and I know exactly what to do, if the time comes. Not that it ever will."

Amaro finished his drink. "Very well, then. With Spring Training now a month away, let's talk about how we will construct our ben..." Amaro felt his surroundings become blurry, then black, as he collapsed in his chair.

***

Amaro sat in the windowless room, secured to the chair where he had spent the last (seven? ten?) days. At first he had tried to keep track of the days, but his perception of time was now long lost. It required most of his remaining strength to simply remain conscious, a state in which he was spending a quickly diminishing amount of time. He fiddled with the ropes securing his wrists to the back of the chair. Freeing himself from the binds seemed hopeless, but at least it allowed his mind to focus on something. At least something rather than the pain cascading through his battered body.

"Good morning!", Epstein greeted Amaro, as he entered the room to continue the interrogation. "Or, good afternoon. Or, good evening. You're not really sure which salutation is apt, are you, Phillie?"

"Ruben Amaro, Jr. Sixteen home runs, one hundred RBIs", Amaro countered.

Epstein chuckled softly. "You know your feeble counting stats have no meaning here, Phillie. Make it easier on yourself, and answer the question. How many lights?"

Amaro sneered at Epstein, but did not respond. Epstein gestured to his muscular Minion, who immediately swung a Louisville Slugger bat, connecting violently with Amaro's kneecaps. The Phillies' GM howled in anguish.

Epstein laughed malevolently. "Do you know who that bat belons to, Phillie? Adrian Gonzalez. You may have heard of him. A lot cheaper than your Ryan Howard. Good fielder, too. We might play him in left field, during interleague play. And in the World Series, of course. What do you think would happen if you tried Howard in the outfield? He'd make Raul Ibanez look like a competent outfielder, I reckon." Epstein laughed again.

"Ruben Amaro, Jr. Sixteen home runs, one hundred RBIs", Amaro replied weakly, feeling the strength continue to drain from his body.

"Just answer the question, Phillie, and this will all be over.", Epstein promised. "Just tell me, how may lights do you see?"

Amaro answered with the rest of his strength, "There are..."

A quick flash blinded the room's occupants, and Amaro's vision was momentarily clouded, as smoke filled the room. Amaro could barely make out a maroon blur, which flashed around the room, making quick work of Amaro's captors. When the dust cleared, a muscular figure, dressed head-to-toe in maroon, stood above Amaro. The maroon ninja removed a knife that had been secreted within his attire, and raised it above Amaro's head.

Amaro winced in anticipation of a killing blow, almost welcoming the end of the torrent of pain. The maroon ninja deftly used the knife to free Amaro from the chair, and helped the now-fragile GM to his feet. The ninja removed his hood to reveal himself as... Phillies' pinch-hitter Ross Gload.

"I'm here to get you out of here, Mr. Amaro. But, first, you need to agree that, if I ever come to you with a request, it will be granted without question.", Gload informer his superior.

"Of course, of course.", Amaro replied weakly.

Neither noticed as Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman entered the room, approaching the pair from behind. Cashman raised his bat to swing... and collapsed awkwardly to the ground. Cashman flailed his arms, trying to remove the blow dart that had suddenly become lodged in his back, before the poisonous contents entered the prone Yankee's bloodstream. Cashman was unsuccessful, losing consciousness mere inches from Amaro.

A second maroon ninja entered the room, holding a blow gun in front of his small, athletic frame. "I want the same deal as Gload, Mr. Amaro.", utility infielder Michael Martinez demanded, as he removed the hood covering his face.

Senseless in Seattle: Raul Ibañez in Left Field?

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

Typically, when a National League team plays in an American League ballpark, they have an inherent disadvantage: the lack of an acceptable Designated Hitter. This season's Phillies' squad is no exception, as their weak bench doesn't offer much in the way of offense. Even more troubling than the weak bench, is Manager Charlie Manuel's tendency towards "innovative" lineup construction.

The best DH option seems pretty obvious; horrific-fielding Raul Ibanez at DH (with poor-fielding Ben Francisco in LF). Naturally, I figured that we'd see Ross Gload as the DH, despite the fact that he is unable to actually run the bases (or anything more strenous than gimping to first base, really.) In the current era, in which "ghostrunners" and "automatic runners" are not yet commonplace, Gload isn't a good fit for any regular season role, except that of "Disabled List Denizen (DLD)." So, with trepidation, I checked out the Phils' lineup:

 
Via Phillies official Twitter

The lineup order actually looks fine. Swapping Jimmy Rollins to the fifth spot, and having Placido Polanco bat first would be an improvement, but there really is not anything to complain about. Well, until you notice that Raul Ibanez is playing left field, and Ben Francisco is the designated hitter. Francisco is an average fielder, at best, but Ibanez is one of the worst fielders in baseball. In spacious Safeco Field, Ibanez' lack of mobility could prove to be even more damaging than it is at smaller CBP.

I actually spoke to Charlie Manuel (in my mind, because he no longer takes my calls/responds to my texts)about the decision.

Frohwirth: "C.F., are you serious about playing Ibanez in LF, and Francisco DHing? You're just trolling us, right?

Manuel: "Well, Ibanez played in Seattle for many years, so I wanted to let him play in the field, in front of the Seattle fans.

Frohwirth: "So, basically, things like "outfield defense", or "winning the game", these aren't the priorities. Letting Ibanez play in the field against his former team is?

Manuel: "Well, Ibanez has played here before, so he has that advantage over Francisco."

Frohwirth: "And Francisco has the advantage where he has the physical capacity to actually move around in the field."

Manuel: "I'm not worried about you and your numbers, Frohwirth. The lineup is what it is."

Frohwirth: "OK. I guess it could be worse. At least Gload and Michael Martinez aren't playing."

Manuel: "Wait 'til tomorrow, Frohwirth, wait 'til tomorrow.

Reliever J.C. Romero Loses the Battle for LOOGYfication

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Albert Einstein

***

Courtesy nbcphiladelphia.com

Every day, I try to find time for a long walk. I just grab my iPod, make sure it's not in shuffle mode (albums are meant to be consumed in their entirety), and head out. I let my mind wander, and allow my thoughts to propel me through the streets. I think about how I should invest my next million. I ponder how to re-cast recent films. I work out the plotlines for the sitcom that takes place only in my noggin.

Mostly, though, I think about the Phillies. I consider what personnel moves should be on their radar. I wonder if Charlie Manuel will ever stop batting Jimmy Rollins leadoff. I contemplate bullpen management, and bench usage, and the minor leagues, and... stumble on the same crack in the sidewalk almost every day.

It's just a momentary stumble, and there aren't really any repercussions to this particular act of doofusness. Sometimes, I'll elicit a concerned glance (or a derisive comment) from a fellow pedestrian. Typically, though, my lack of grace goes unnoticed. I'm not really sure why I stumble on that same crack so frequently. I'm well-aware of it's existence. I have the requisite level of agility to avoid a six-inch long obstacle on the ground, at least when given advance notice. I guess I just get lost in my train of thought most days, but there's really no good reason for making the same mistake so frequently.

***

In the offseason, when the Phillies declined reliever J.C. Romero's $4.5MM option, and retained him for $1.35MM, it looked like a good move. The signing was discussed on this here blog, and Romero appeared poised to be a useful member of the 2011 bullpen. The key to a successful season for Romero would be his usage. Against right-handed batters, Romero has struggled, posting a career split of .268/.382/.809 (K/BB of 1.07). However, against left-handed batters, Romero has been very effective, posting a career split of .215/.312/.290 (K/BB of 2.12). Even in the (highly unlikely) event that Charlie Manuel hasn't been reading this blog, it is fairly obvious that Romero is best-utilized as a LOOGY (left-handed, one-out guy).

As per usual, Romero has been superb against left-handed batters in 2011. Despite a somewhat-unfriendly BABIP of .313, Romero held lefties to a .208/.321/.208 slash line, which he coupled with a K/BB of 2.00. (By way of comparison, ace Roy Halladay's line against same-handed batters (righties, in his case) is .201/.228/.279.) Yesterday, Romero was designated for assignment, and is unlikely to play for the Phillies again.

What happened? Romero was badly misused by Manuel. It wasn't particularly surprising that Romero has struggled against right-handed batters this season, posting a very poor .297/.435/.432 line. But it was particularly disappointing that Romero faced right-handed batters 61.3% of the time.

There were game situations (typically, low leverage ones) where using Romero against right-handed batters was defensible. Occasionally, the availability of other relief options affected Manuel's deployment of Romero. However, the majority of the time, Manuel was able to use Romero optimally. Yet, he didn't.

I'm not really sure why Manuel used Romero the way he did. Heading into each game, Manuel was well-aware that Romero struggled against right-handed batters. Manuel is sufficiently agile, tactically, to keep Romero away from opposite-handed hitters. Maybe, as individual games progressed, Manuel simply became lost in his own strategic train of thought?

Unfortunately, Manuel's "crack in the sidewalk" has had, and could continue to have, repercussions. The Phillies currently have the best record in baseball, but correct use of Romero could have made that record even better. Additionally, Romero is available to be picked up by another contender, and would likely be particularly effective against the Phillies' lefty-heavy lineup. Romero could prove to be very damaging to the Phillies' postseason hopes, if he joins a team with a manager who, unlike Manuel, uses Romero optimally.

Ryan Madson Dreams of an All-Star Game Appearance

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

 

Earlier this week, Phillies closer Ryan Madson made an interesting comment about a possible All-Star Game selection:

"It would be a dream come true. It would probably beat going to the World Series, to be honest with you."

The Closer Mentality-possessing reliever is known for his jocular personality. This particular statement is pretty much too insane to be taken seriously. Additionally, recent studies indicate that, in approximately 74% of the instances in which it is used, the phrase "to be honest with you" follows (or precedes) a falsehood. All signs seem to indicate that Madson is joking here.

The signs, however, are wrong. Utilizing the myriad financial resources of the blog, particularly the clout afforded by many generous Tip Jar donations, we have been able to determine the truth. Our vast network of information-gatherers has managed to acquire the following list, which was briefly removed from Ryan Madson's locker at CBP. We are pleased to present it to you, in reverse order, for purposes of suspense:

 

"Ryan Madson's List of Dreams/Accomplishments", by Ryan Madson

10. Get past Soda Popinski in Punch-Out.

9. Punch every individual who claimed that I did not have a "closer's mentality" in the face, with my left hand.

8. Create my own signature sushi roll.

7. Play in the World Series.

6. Find a major network to buy my comedy pilot.

5. Perform "On the Rise" on the field at CBP, with Neil Patrick Harris.

4. Defeat Wilson Valdez at Guitar Hero.

3. Play in an All-Star Game.

2. Become a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

1. Defeat Sarah (Madson) at Boggle.

It is currently unclear how many of these dreams have already become accomplishments. It is likely, however, that achieving #2 may be beyond even Madson's capabilities.