Philliedelphia

Phillies Weekly Preview

                                                            Photo by Rich Wilkins

Another week down, another week coming up. The Phillies welcome Delmon Young back tonight as the DH.

Onto series one of the week-

Philadelphia Phillies (12-14, NL East 3rd) @ Cleveland Indians (10-13, AL Central 4th)

At: Cleveland's Progressive Field
When: Tuesday 7:05, Wednesday 7:05
TV: Both on CSN.

Pitching Match-Ups:
Tuesday- Roy Halladay (2-2, 5.08) vs. Zach McAllister (1-3, 3.52)
Wednesday- Cliff Lee (2-1, 3.03) vs. Trevor Bauer (0-1, 5.40)

On the Phillies- Coming off of a sweep of the Mets, the Phillies are within two games of .500, and have the Braves and Nats in their view. Finally, they are at full strength, with Chooch and Delmon on the team. The line-up should look normal.

On the Indians- I'm not sure what to make of them. With a similar situation to the Phillies, they had a nice off-season and a lot of people think they'll be much improved on last season. So far, they're mediocre.

Prediction- My first inclination is to say sweep, because of the pitching match-ups. I have my doubts, so I'll say SPLIT.

Second series- Phillies vs. Miami Marlins (7-19, NL East 5th)

At: CBP
When: Thursday 7:05, Friday 7:05, Saturday 7:05, Sunday 2:35
TV: Thursday through Saturday on CSN, Sunday on PHL 17

Pitching Match-Ups:
Thursday- Alex Sanabia (2-3, 4.85) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 2.41)
Friday- Ricky Nolasco (2-2, 3.82) vs. Jon Pettibone (1-0, 4.35)
Saturday- Jose Fernandez (0-2, 4.50) vs. Cole Hamels (1-3, 4.78)
Sunday- TBD vs. Halladay

Prediction- The Phillies will have a good weekend against a team that once again lacks Giancarlo Stanton. I'll say PHILLIES 3 OF 4.

How to Recap a 2013 Phillies Game, 101

Every game is the same- "The offense struggled today, getting ____ (between 0 and 3) runs early, while the starter was great today. _______ (any of the 5 starters) was flawless through 5, giving up a (or a pair) of runs in the 6th inning, before giving away to _________ (Horst, Valdes, Durbin, Aumont), who promptly let ______ (other team) tie the game up on a walk and couple of hits. ___________ (one of the other pitchers, or Adams lately) came on in the 8th and surrendered __________ (insert horrible line here for their slop performance), giving _____ (other team) the lead. The Phillies then got runners on first and third with a chance to tie, but _____ was thrown out at home, and _____ (likely Howard, or any of the other 7 hitters) struck out to end the rally. Tough loss today!

Pettibone, Biddle, and Ranking the Young Arms

So Jon Pettibone threw really well last night for a big league debut, which doesn't shock me. Sometimes a good debut means you're a future Cole Hamels, sometimes it means you're Carlton Loewer. You shouldn't get overly excited, or totally dismissive, because he did pitch good, but lots of young guys have quick success before people have seen them much.

I have seen plenty of Pettibone though. I saw him a couple times last season, and I saw his first start in AAA this year. He is not a future ace, but he could and should be a decent big leaguer some day. He's got a nice 91-92 type fastball, and a good sinker when he's on. His best games are the games that put you to sleep. That's a profile that seems to go high end #3, and low end #5. I wouldn't put too much stock into last night, or his two rough starts in AAA.

Pettibone was not the "big" start by a young guy last night. That still goes to Jesse Biddle. All he did was punch out 16 last night in Reading, over 7 innings. If you were wondering, I haven't seen him pitch yet, and it's one of the things I really want to do this summer. And every summer going forward.

So far this summer I've seen Ethan Martin (twice), Pettibone, Cloyd, Brody Colvin, and Zach Miner (ouch) start minor league games. In terms of what I saw, I was probably most impressed with Colvin to be honest, and he's actually come out of the gates okay for once, pitching to a 3.97 ERA in his two starts before going on the 7 day DL (I'm not sure why). I did see Adam Morgan in the Lehigh Valley-Reading scrimmage, and he looked bothered by the extreme cold that night, but he's pitched excellent since then.

Being that the Phillies are likely to have 2 or 3 openings in next year's rotation, how do all of these young arms rate right now? I'll give you my best crack, which I'll base on their ceiling and likelihood to actually be a starter in the end. I think it's obvious who I'll rank #1, but still, here's my list:

1. Jesse Biddle- I'd be kind of surprised if he didn't make the 2014 rotation right now. He's got a 2.16 ERA in Reading, which makes it very possible that he is in Lehigh Valley by June or July if he throws like that. Simply put, he strikes me as a guy who flies through these levels and opens next season as a fourth or fifth starter, unless they hold him back until June.
2. Adam Morgan- I'd be pretty surprised if Morgan is not making his MLB Debut before the end of this season. He's dominated the minors since we drafted him out of Alabama, and he's dominated AAA so far this season. He's the best pitcher so far on that team, as he's been on every team so far that he's been on. He's got a solid fastball, and a great slider. If he can work on a third pitch, he's ready. He's not yet, but he will be soon.
3. Jon Pettibone- Am I ranking him higher than you would? I suppose so in some cases. I think he's the safest guy in the system. Pettibone is a guy who has to consistently get ground balls, but he can grow into that guy. I'm hesitant to compare him to Kendrick, if for no other reason than I think he may be ahead of where Kendrick was, but being a sinker-baller, Pettibone does have to do the same things we used to say Kendrick did.
4. Ethan Martin- He's certainly more talented than Pettibone, but he's in AAA and still has some struggles with control and command. He's got a great fastball, and actually good stuff on the whole, he just seems to get behind in the count sometimes and get into trouble. I'm a believer he ends up being a closer or high-leverage spot reliever some day. He's a strong bet to make the bigs.
5. Brody Colvin- He's a guy with a high ceiling, and he came out of the gates well, but now he's on the DL. I'm not sure why, but he was a late scratch from his last scheduled start. This is kind of a make-or-break year for him, and he could fall on this list. He could also move way up it too.
6. Seth Rosin- He's throwing pretty well so far, and seems to be adapted after being traded for Hunter Pence last year.
7. Tyler Cloyd- I don't think he can make it as a full-time starter. He's a AAAA guy at best.
8. Austin Wright- He's on the DL right now. I liked his numbers last year, but have never seen him.
9. B.J. Rosenberg- I think he's a reliever, which is why he's so low on this list. I like that they have him stretching out though, and getting more innings.

This is just my early take on these guys, and their likely outcomes. In a month this could change. For now, it's based on a small sample size of this year, and their pedigree in the rankings.

Observations at 20 Games

"Crahuhjahheuh!" Love the cracker jacks, and the dude is a cool dude.

So, the Phillies had a losing opening 20 games. The last time they opened 8-11 didn't end so bad though- it was 2007. The real difference in that team and this one is two-fold:

1. That team could hit anyone they faced. 
2. That team couldn't pitch to save it's life.

This year is the polar opposite. They can pitch, but they can't hit. They also have had managerial issues. They also have had roster issues. What can I say, they have issues.

This is not a sub-.500 team, or a .500 team even. They are 9-11 right now though, and they are looking up in the standings. The question is, where are they going?

My guess is that the starting pitching will continue to be good, and probably even improve. The bullpen will continue to stabilize and give them more too. The bench has been effective. The problem will be the line-up, and a lack of consistency. I don't think they will be good enough to get much beyond 90 games, or win the division. If health holds up, I still think they can be a Wild Card team. I just don't think this team will be good enough offensively, as they currently fill in the line-up card, to win the NL East. Charlie is not showing enough creativity to change the offensive personality of this group. He's also leaving a lot to be desired in the bullpen.

That's just my take at 20 games.

The Phillies Week Ahead

Well, last week I got the Cardinals series right, and the Reds one way wrong. The Phillies are 8-11, and celebrate 20 games of baseball tonight. The Pirates come in for four, and then the Phillies head up to Gotham, to visit our friends in Queens, the Mets. Here's the match-ups for the week:

Philadelphia Phillies (8-11) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (10-8)

When: Monday-Thursday

Times: Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday 7:05; Thursday 1:05.

TV: CSN- Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday; TCN- Tuesday.

PITCHING MATCH-UPS:
Monday- Jon Pettibone (0-0, MLB Debut) vs. A.J. Burnett (1-2, 2.63)
Tuesday- Cole Hamels (0-2, 6.46) vs. Jeff Locke (1-1, 5.17)
Wednesday- Roy Halladay (0-2, 6.04) vs. Wandy Rodriguez (2-0, 0.56)
Thursday- Cliff Lee (2-1, 2.83) vs. James McDonald (2-2, 4.12)

On the Phillies- A good win on Sunday night makes you feel better, but it was a rough, 2-5 week. At 8-11, they will have a losing record through 20 games. The inconsistency of the offense is a bit concerning, especially since Pittsburgh has played pretty well.

On the Pirates- The Pirates just took 3 of 4 from the Braves, so what else needs to be said about their play? Rodriguez and Burnett are off to really good starts. They have some outstanding young talent.

PREDICTIONS- I'd love to think they get going here. They won't. SPLIT.

Phillies @New York Mets (9-8)

When- Friday-Sunday

Times- Friday 7:10; Saturday 1:05, Sunday 1:10.

TV- PHL17- Friday, Sunday; FOX- Saturday;

PITCHING MATCH-UPS:
Friday- Kyle Kendrick (1-1, 3.28) vs. Dillon Gee (1-3, 5.95)
Saturday- TBD vs. Jon Niese (2-1, 3.80)
Sunday- Hamels vs. TBD

On the Phillies- In the first meeting of these two teams, the Phillies took 2 of 3. This will be their first trip to Citi Field this year. They won their last game there 16-1.

On the Mets- The Mets are off to a good start, and just beat the Nationals in 2 of 3 this weekend.

PREDICTION- Write off Saturday, they won't win that one. I still like them here. PHILLIES 2 OF 3.

Random Phillies Thoughts

Photo by Rich Wilkins

Well that was a garbage dump of a road trip. The Phillies were swept out of Cincinnati tonight and go home at 6-9. It was an awful trip, with two wins against the rat-awful Marlins being the saving grace. They did not score before the sixth inning of any of the six games, and did not score more than three in any games. They scored 10 runs on the trip.

It sucks, but it's not new. It's not the end of the season, or reason to go into a blind panic, or call for wild moves tomorrow. Personally, I'm most bothered by the calls to put Jimmy back at lead-off and drop Revere to the eight hole. Ricky Bottalico's line-up was really awful- he wants to put Jimmy back at one, put Young at two, and put God know's who behind Ryan Howard, since I mean, he's getting a lot of fastballs right now, right? I personally think that at some point Ben Revere will start seeing more balls get through the infield, and he'll get his average back towards last year's .294. With that said, he is .100 points below his numbers from Minnesota, and that is a concern. If you really want to shake things up, I'm ok with it, but at least be somewhat reasonable about what you propose. I could live with something like Chase, Ben, Young, Howard, Rollins, Brown (or Ruf if Brown's actually hurt), Mayberry/Nix, Kratz/Quintero for now. Get more plate appearances for Chase and Young, get someone who can hit for power behind Howard. Frankly their ten games from getting Chooch back, and at some point Delmon will return too. At that point I'd be fine with a Chase, Jimmy, Young, Howard, Ruiz, Brown, Delmon, Revere line-up. Honestly though, I'd change nothing right now, yet. I'd also resist the urge to talk about "trades and firings." Just sit tight.

If John Lannan goes to the DL with his knee issue, the only pitcher hot in AAA is Adam Morgan (who threw 8 shut out innings on Saturday), and also is not on the 40 man roster right now. For whatever reason, Cesar Jimenez threw 4.2 innings tonight as a starter (they did play two on Sunday). Pettibone struggled a bit again in yesterday's win. Cloyd would be a bit off turn (he threw Monday), and Martin and Rosenberg threw nice games on Sunday. That's the hard move, while the easy one is if Brown goes on the DL, Darin Ruf is waiting, and hit his first homer tonight.

That was a brutal trip. Things will get better.

Phillies Weekly Preview

Photo by Rich Wilkins

It's time for week three. Two series, two playoff teams from a year ago. We start in Cincinnati-

Monday-Wednesday- Philadelphia Phillies (6-6) @ Cincinnati Red (5-7)

Monday- Cliff Lee (2-0, 1.08) vs. Bronson Arroyo (1-1, 5.25)
Tuesday- Kyle Kendrick (1-1, 5.40) vs. Homer Bailey (1-1, 5.73)
Wednesday- John Lannan (0-0, 2.77) vs. Mike Leake (0-0, 6.75)

On the Reds- The Reds lost the last five games of their road trip and come home with a losing record. They don't get to throw Cueto or Latos at the Phillies, a big plus.  With that said, this is a team with the Vottos, Bruces, and Chapmans of the world on it, so this is no easy task.

On the Phillies- They're playing fairly well. They won both series last week, including 4 of their last 5 games. This is the end of their rotation that has been fairly consistent too. They had a lot of trouble scoring in Miami, but I think the lack of home run balls in Miami's cave of a stadium had a lot to do with that.

PREDICTION- This is a trap pick, because the Reds are playing bad and the Phillies are playing good right now. I'm not going to get carried away- PHILLIES 2 of 3.

Thursday-Sunday- St. Louis Cardinals (7-5) @ Phillies

Thursday- Adam Wainwright (2-1, 2.05) vs Cole Hamels (0-2, 7.56)
Friday- Jaime Garcia (1-0, 1.86) vs. Roy Halladay (1-2, 7.63)
Saturday- Lance Lynn (1-0, 4.50) vs. Lee
Sunday- Jake Westbrook (1-1, 0.00) vs. Kendrick

On the Cardinals- You don't go win a World Series and make it to game 7 of the NLCS the next year without being a pretty damn good team, right? They hit, they pitch, they do a lot right. Their bullpen has been their achilles so far this season.

On the Phillies- Well, I guess we'll have a pretty good idea of where they currently are by the end of the week. They have had their past issues with Wainwright and Garcia before.

PREDICTION- This one's a wash. SPLIT.

Welcome to Miami, Phillies: Raging Against Their Team

From Rat Marlins

Back in 1991, my dad decided to get a 16 game (that was the size at the time) season ticket plan in section 205 at the Vet. We proceeded to watch some of the worst baseball teams assembled through the 90s, and it was a damn struggle. I learned to "boo" a lot. I learned to curse the Ricky Oteros of the world. I somehow stuck around long enough to see the Phillies get good.

For this reason, I'm going to give lots of respect to the "Rage Against Team" Marlins group. They wanted to protest the team blowing up all of it's talent and selling it, and instead this happened:

We the members of the RageAgaisntTheMarlins.com Team went to the game tonight, and were promptly thrown out before we ever made it to our seats, for no reason that was given to us at all.

As soon as we entered the concourse we were approached by Dave Hyde from The Sun-Sentinel and Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post because our shirts and sign caught their eye. As soon as we started talking to them police officers approached and stood over our shoulder as we were interviewed. One officer can be seen in the background of our picture talking on his radio. At one point he leaned in and abruptly asked ” Are we almost done here!” So we finished our interviews and started walking to our seats.

Marlins security personnel immediately started following us. Its was soon after this, as we were approaching our section, that a police officer stopped us. He said “I need you all to wait right here”, then talked to someone on the on his radio. Seconds later there were 4 more police officers all around us. when we asked what we had done wrong the police said they didn’t know. All the police knew was that “Someone” wanted us to wait there. They said a marlins representative wanted to talk to us. After 10 minutes of no representative showing up, they led us down a flight of stairs and out the door. It was at this point, standing on the sidewalk outside the stadium, that we were FIRST asked for our I.D. Being that we were already kicked out we refused and walked away from them. They followed us for a few minutes until we were off the property.

After the Game David Sampson Said this to the Media:

“We got information from the police that they’d run into a couple of fans who were walking around holding signs that were fine. That was not the issue. They were drawing some attention to themselves. Making some noise later in the game, which is not uncommon,’’ Samson said.

“As per standard operating procedure, the police go up, try to tell them to calm down and they did not. Then the police said, ‘Show me ID’ and they did not. And that was it. You have to show ID when asked. So they were ejected.”

ThESE ARE

LIESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

How were we “making some noise later in the game and being unruly” when it was the SECOND INNING and we hadn’t even reached our seats! Later in the game was when we were driving home on I-95 talking to Dave Hyde (something Dave Hyde has already mentioned in his article). He also mentioned this “They said after being ejected they were asked for identification and refused to show any. (This was updated after an e-mail sent by Gardner this morning, writing, “Just for the record, we were kicked out before we were ever asked for ID. Not giving ID had nothing to do with it! … They only started demanding ID’s after we were already out of the stadium.”)

I'm totally in solidarity with these guys. I remember when the Phillies sucked too. Our owners were cheap then too. I know their feeling. What's worse for them though is that unlike the Phillies, who started spending money once they knew they were opening a new ballpark, the Marlins head-faked that for the first year in their new park, and now cut spending to the bare-bone. Jeffrey Loria can't even claim he has ballpark financing issues, as he put the taxpayers of Miami-Dade County on the hook for $1.2 billion to pay for his park.

As much as I like having a crappy team in our division, MLB should not be allowing this garbage. The Commissioner should strongly urge Loria to sell his team.

Check out Rage Against the Marlins' website by clicking here.

The Boys Ain't So Bad....

Photo by Rich Wilkins

There are lots of ways to look at the 4-5 Phillies so far, and some blogs have made them all negative. Let me give you another one- Cole and Doc have made it close to impossible to win 4 of the first 9. That leaves just 5 games with a shot to win, and the Phillies have won 4 of them. Presuming that at least Cole is going to get it together, they may just be good enough.

It's important not to make too much of beating the Mets for 2 of 3 games. There was lots of good stuff in this series, including some power (whew, where has that been?), and some good pitching. Dom Brown's home run last night might not have landed yet. The bullpen was both finally used right last night, and pretty good in the series.

The Phillies go to Miami now for the weekend, to face the worst team in the division. The Marlins are 1-8 right now. Even 2 of 3 would put us at .500, a sweep takes us over. Next week the schedule gets much harder, with the Reds and Cardinals. It would be nice to walk in with a nice record to face those teams.

Of the Phils, Pitching, and the Future

Over the last three days, the Phillies put about $68 million in average-annual-value on the mound to start baseball games, and for two of those days the pitching stunk. In the case of Cole Hamels, I think this is simply a product of cold weather, and April in general. At the ripe old age of 29, he seems healthy to me, and he's just gotta get some innings in to get the command going.

Then there's Roy Halladay- I increasingly think he's finished, or at least hurt again. He showed up last year with issues, apparently from a lower back in jury, that then caused a lat pull in his pitching shoulder, which then caused his season to stink. Ok, fine. This year he showed up well rested, and claiming good health. In his first spring start, he was throwing 89-90, and for his first few starts he was getting outs. Then his velocity dropped. First he had dead arm, then fatigue, then a stomach virus, then he lost 10 pounds over night, and finally he just needed more innings. Then he goes to Atlanta to start the season, gets bombed, but strikes out 9 in 3 1/3 innings. We now know the bad part of that line is the more real part, as he got bombed again by the Mets. Halladay is in serious trouble.

Halladay's problems aren't just one thing. Yes, his velocity is down. Yes, his fastball is flattened out. Yes, he has zero command of his pitches. Yes, his confidence is down. Yes, to everything said negative here. Here's the truth though- you don't often see pitchers go from where Halladay was at the end of 2011 to the dumps he's at now, at least not this fast. There's two possibilities here- he's either hurt, or his arm is simply shot, worn down, and done. It could be his back again, it could be a shoulder injury, it could just be that 230 innings a year wore him out. I don't know. I just know that at this point my confidence in getting a good season out of Doc is at zero. My guess here is that it's his shoulder (a doctor friend watched him and said that on Monday), and Doc simply doesn't want to give up a year at age 36, facing free agency, to get it cleaned up. I want to hope that this isn't the case, like I want to believe he didn't throw Kratz under the bus after his first start. I don't though. I am starting to believe the Phillies would be better off with any of their AAA prospect arms in the rotation than Doc right now.

All of this is pretty important since the Phillies are only 3-5, now 1-7 like some people seem to believe. A big part of that is the pitching of Cliff Lee, who's pitching like a pitcher who got $120 million for five years in free agency. I don't know when Cliff Lee wasn't an ace (please don't tell me about his won-lost record in 2012), but there seems to be genuine surprise that this guy is still good. Really? I never had any decreased expectations of Lee, nor do I of Hamels now. The question about this team is, will it be enough? Yes, it's been ugly, but the Phillies next four games are against the Mets tonight, and three with the Marlins this weekend (in the heat of Miami), and that makes it plausible that they could be at or over .500 by then. Even if they are not, there will still be 150 games left. I've enjoyed hearing about how the Phillies are the "third or fourth most talented team in the division" from some blogs, but these same people claim that Michael Young and his 2012 average of .277, was one of the two or three worst players in the league last year (Yes, worse than Michael Martinez). The point there is, my expectation that this team is an 85-90 win team has not gone away yet. With two aces, why would I change that? If you get good seasons from Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, and Lannan, what would make this team bad? Just for the record too, I'm not on board with signing Oswalt and guaranteeing him a rotation slot. He looked pretty shot last year.

Well, my biggest fear is unfortunately in the dugout. There are few to no bigger Charlie Manuel fans than me, but I've been more frustrated with him than usual this season. His "platoon" in right-field has not really followed a "righty-lefty" split, but kind of just went on a hunch. That's, um, great. Then there's his bullpen use, which really alarms me. The home opener is the poster child to me, but I don't want to totally harp on just one game. In that game, the Phillies lead 4-2 with 2 outs in the 6th inning. They needed just ten outs. Game this out for a moment too, it was simple:

• Papelbon was going to be the last 3 outs. 
• Adams was going to get the 3 outs before that.
• They needed just 4 additional outs, with both Aumont and Bastardo fully rested from the day before when Lee went 8 innings. 

He went to Horst, Durbin, and Valdes instead, and watched the lead evaporate, and the other team then run away with an easy win. Generally speaking, inside of ten outs, with a lead, a manager should try to use his best four relievers to get those outs. I might be overly picking on Charlie here, but it's driving me absolutely nuts that Chad Durbin has inherited the most base-runners in this bullpen, but has the worst punch-out stuff to get out of those jams. I love Charlie for the parade he lead us to, but this is maddening.

I'm about as optimistic as we can be about things getting better. Sure, Michael Young won't end up with a .976 OPS most likely (he was .854 in his last great year, 2011), and sure,  Chase Utley will drop a bit too, but the pitching should get better. This roster has holes (Valdes, the bench, right-field, etc.), but it will improve sometimes next month (I think). If it doesn't, this will be a different team come August. While Joseph, Asche, and Gillies are struggling, I wouldn't write any of them totally off yet in AAA, and Cesar Hernandez (.462/1.154) and Darin Ruf (.308/.719) are off to solid starts. This team could be turned over completely by next Opening Day, which should give you some light even if this season does go dark quickly.