Philliedelphia

Random Phillies Thoughts

Photo by Rich Wilkins

Well that was a garbage dump of a road trip. The Phillies were swept out of Cincinnati tonight and go home at 6-9. It was an awful trip, with two wins against the rat-awful Marlins being the saving grace. They did not score before the sixth inning of any of the six games, and did not score more than three in any games. They scored 10 runs on the trip.

It sucks, but it's not new. It's not the end of the season, or reason to go into a blind panic, or call for wild moves tomorrow. Personally, I'm most bothered by the calls to put Jimmy back at lead-off and drop Revere to the eight hole. Ricky Bottalico's line-up was really awful- he wants to put Jimmy back at one, put Young at two, and put God know's who behind Ryan Howard, since I mean, he's getting a lot of fastballs right now, right? I personally think that at some point Ben Revere will start seeing more balls get through the infield, and he'll get his average back towards last year's .294. With that said, he is .100 points below his numbers from Minnesota, and that is a concern. If you really want to shake things up, I'm ok with it, but at least be somewhat reasonable about what you propose. I could live with something like Chase, Ben, Young, Howard, Rollins, Brown (or Ruf if Brown's actually hurt), Mayberry/Nix, Kratz/Quintero for now. Get more plate appearances for Chase and Young, get someone who can hit for power behind Howard. Frankly their ten games from getting Chooch back, and at some point Delmon will return too. At that point I'd be fine with a Chase, Jimmy, Young, Howard, Ruiz, Brown, Delmon, Revere line-up. Honestly though, I'd change nothing right now, yet. I'd also resist the urge to talk about "trades and firings." Just sit tight.

If John Lannan goes to the DL with his knee issue, the only pitcher hot in AAA is Adam Morgan (who threw 8 shut out innings on Saturday), and also is not on the 40 man roster right now. For whatever reason, Cesar Jimenez threw 4.2 innings tonight as a starter (they did play two on Sunday). Pettibone struggled a bit again in yesterday's win. Cloyd would be a bit off turn (he threw Monday), and Martin and Rosenberg threw nice games on Sunday. That's the hard move, while the easy one is if Brown goes on the DL, Darin Ruf is waiting, and hit his first homer tonight.

That was a brutal trip. Things will get better.

Of the Phils, Pitching, and the Future

Over the last three days, the Phillies put about $68 million in average-annual-value on the mound to start baseball games, and for two of those days the pitching stunk. In the case of Cole Hamels, I think this is simply a product of cold weather, and April in general. At the ripe old age of 29, he seems healthy to me, and he's just gotta get some innings in to get the command going.

Then there's Roy Halladay- I increasingly think he's finished, or at least hurt again. He showed up last year with issues, apparently from a lower back in jury, that then caused a lat pull in his pitching shoulder, which then caused his season to stink. Ok, fine. This year he showed up well rested, and claiming good health. In his first spring start, he was throwing 89-90, and for his first few starts he was getting outs. Then his velocity dropped. First he had dead arm, then fatigue, then a stomach virus, then he lost 10 pounds over night, and finally he just needed more innings. Then he goes to Atlanta to start the season, gets bombed, but strikes out 9 in 3 1/3 innings. We now know the bad part of that line is the more real part, as he got bombed again by the Mets. Halladay is in serious trouble.

Halladay's problems aren't just one thing. Yes, his velocity is down. Yes, his fastball is flattened out. Yes, he has zero command of his pitches. Yes, his confidence is down. Yes, to everything said negative here. Here's the truth though- you don't often see pitchers go from where Halladay was at the end of 2011 to the dumps he's at now, at least not this fast. There's two possibilities here- he's either hurt, or his arm is simply shot, worn down, and done. It could be his back again, it could be a shoulder injury, it could just be that 230 innings a year wore him out. I don't know. I just know that at this point my confidence in getting a good season out of Doc is at zero. My guess here is that it's his shoulder (a doctor friend watched him and said that on Monday), and Doc simply doesn't want to give up a year at age 36, facing free agency, to get it cleaned up. I want to hope that this isn't the case, like I want to believe he didn't throw Kratz under the bus after his first start. I don't though. I am starting to believe the Phillies would be better off with any of their AAA prospect arms in the rotation than Doc right now.

All of this is pretty important since the Phillies are only 3-5, now 1-7 like some people seem to believe. A big part of that is the pitching of Cliff Lee, who's pitching like a pitcher who got $120 million for five years in free agency. I don't know when Cliff Lee wasn't an ace (please don't tell me about his won-lost record in 2012), but there seems to be genuine surprise that this guy is still good. Really? I never had any decreased expectations of Lee, nor do I of Hamels now. The question about this team is, will it be enough? Yes, it's been ugly, but the Phillies next four games are against the Mets tonight, and three with the Marlins this weekend (in the heat of Miami), and that makes it plausible that they could be at or over .500 by then. Even if they are not, there will still be 150 games left. I've enjoyed hearing about how the Phillies are the "third or fourth most talented team in the division" from some blogs, but these same people claim that Michael Young and his 2012 average of .277, was one of the two or three worst players in the league last year (Yes, worse than Michael Martinez). The point there is, my expectation that this team is an 85-90 win team has not gone away yet. With two aces, why would I change that? If you get good seasons from Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, and Lannan, what would make this team bad? Just for the record too, I'm not on board with signing Oswalt and guaranteeing him a rotation slot. He looked pretty shot last year.

Well, my biggest fear is unfortunately in the dugout. There are few to no bigger Charlie Manuel fans than me, but I've been more frustrated with him than usual this season. His "platoon" in right-field has not really followed a "righty-lefty" split, but kind of just went on a hunch. That's, um, great. Then there's his bullpen use, which really alarms me. The home opener is the poster child to me, but I don't want to totally harp on just one game. In that game, the Phillies lead 4-2 with 2 outs in the 6th inning. They needed just ten outs. Game this out for a moment too, it was simple:

• Papelbon was going to be the last 3 outs. 
• Adams was going to get the 3 outs before that.
• They needed just 4 additional outs, with both Aumont and Bastardo fully rested from the day before when Lee went 8 innings. 

He went to Horst, Durbin, and Valdes instead, and watched the lead evaporate, and the other team then run away with an easy win. Generally speaking, inside of ten outs, with a lead, a manager should try to use his best four relievers to get those outs. I might be overly picking on Charlie here, but it's driving me absolutely nuts that Chad Durbin has inherited the most base-runners in this bullpen, but has the worst punch-out stuff to get out of those jams. I love Charlie for the parade he lead us to, but this is maddening.

I'm about as optimistic as we can be about things getting better. Sure, Michael Young won't end up with a .976 OPS most likely (he was .854 in his last great year, 2011), and sure,  Chase Utley will drop a bit too, but the pitching should get better. This roster has holes (Valdes, the bench, right-field, etc.), but it will improve sometimes next month (I think). If it doesn't, this will be a different team come August. While Joseph, Asche, and Gillies are struggling, I wouldn't write any of them totally off yet in AAA, and Cesar Hernandez (.462/1.154) and Darin Ruf (.308/.719) are off to solid starts. This team could be turned over completely by next Opening Day, which should give you some light even if this season does go dark quickly.

Charlie Manuel Is Comfortable With Ryne Sandberg's Promotion And His Own Contract

According to an article written by CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel feels no threat with the new promotion of Ryne Sandberg.

The hall of famer Sandberg was appointed to the third base coaching position for the big league club this morning following the Phillies' house cleaning within the coaching staff.

With Charlie Manuel's contract expiring after next season, a big question and apparent speculation regarding Sandberg's future with the club is emerging. Although the fans' speculation is that Sandberg will become Manuel's successor. However, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has made it clear that Sandberg has not been promised any managerial job in the future. 

“The fact is he’s not the heir apparent,” Amaro said. “There have been no promises made to Ryne Sandberg. He’s part of the staff and we’re happy to have him. I believe he will get an opportunity to be a big-league manager at some point. Whether it’s with the Phillies or another club I don’t know.”

Amaro noted that Sandberg is free to interview for any manager's positions that might rise this offseason. Salisbury notes that Sandberg may have no intentions of signing with another club and that his best shot to manage in the MLB is with Philadelphia.

It is not clear whether Sandberg would accept interviews with other clubs. He clearly wants to manage in the majors and sources say he has an understanding that his best chance of doing so might be with the Phillies. 

Charlie Manuel, who is the all-time leader in managerial wins for the Phillies, will enter the final year of his contract in 2013. The 68 year-old, who turns 69 in January, signed a two-year extension in an effort to end it near his 70th birthday. Salisbury speculates and notes, like most of us, that Charlie Manuel won't make the decision any time soon.

Manuel had long said he would evaluate his personal situation and his standing in the franchise at the end of the deal and decide if he wanted to pursue a new deal or retire. Though Manuel has never publicly said he intends to retire from managing after the 2013 season, people close to him have said that is his intent and that team officials know that. Manuel probably does not want to reveal his intentions because he doesn’t want to create the impression he is coasting toward the end.

With that being said, Manuel has explained that he is comfortable without a contract extension.

“I know how old I am,” said Manuel. “My favorite saying is know thyself. I still have passion and drive. My contract is fine. At the end of the year I’ll sit down and take inventory of myself and talk to people and see where I am. I’m not saying I’m going to quit. [The 2013 season] is a great challenge for our team.”

Manuel also said he would not be threatened by the presence of Ryne Sandberg. With the man who could succeed him in the dugout beside him, the Phils' skipper is keeping his cool. Manuel also noted that he’s looking forward to having Sandberg’s input on hitting and defensive positioning.

 

“I have a contract and it’s good,” Manuel said. “I’ll get caught up in the fact that I love baseball and how determined I am to see us play better. That won’t be a problem at all. I think any problem that comes up we can handle it. I like everything about Ryne Sandberg.”

The future is upon us and we're not the same team that we have been for the past five years. Changes are coming and changes will happen. Amaro stated that changing faces in the organization will better the club in the long run.

"One of the things that makes an organization strong, frankly, is hiring people that might eventually take our jobs," Amaro said. "That’s one of the beauties of hiring strong people: They get opportunities to step up later on.”

I like this move and the potential that it holds for the Phillies. Of course we have another season with Uncle Cholly. If 2013 is indeed his last at the helm of the Phillies, the Phillies should strive to send him off the right way: with another World Series.

H/T to CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury.

Follow Erik on Twitter @ErikSeyboldPHI.

 

Losses That Don't Bother Me

There's a misconception out there, that because the Phillies are still playing baseball, there's a shot of this team coming back. It's a misconception because this team is 54-64. It's a misconception because this team has real flaws. It's a misconception because well, it's just not going to happen.

Yes, I know this team came back once, like five years ago. Yes, I know they play 13 games against the Rockies, Marlins, Astros, and Mets in mid-September. That's nice. They're not coming back. This team has had a lot of injuries for any team to endure this year. They've got a weak bullpen, and currently some spots in the line-up being occupied by little more than replacement level players. There is a nice core to build around, for next year, and yes there are some players with something to prove, but the best anyone should really hope for is more than 80 wins as a team achievement.

This is why, for once, I agree with a Philly.com writer about a game. Matt Gelb is spot on- we're not in this race, so why not use Lindblom there? He was, after all, a center-piece of the Victorino trade, and is going to be in next year's bullpen in some role, be it as a primary set-up man or a guy who just eats low-leverage innings. Why not figure out his role now? Why not let him play? Why not try out De Fratus and Aumont, or Cloyd, or others, come September 1st? I feel like the worst thing you could do is to not get a good look at as many guys as you can in actual major league games. So what if the Phillies lost? If you're not playoff bound, does it matter if you win 82 games? I'd like them to. I'm not overly worried about it though.

At least one Charlie Manuel believes in good process

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

(On Tuesday night, Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel chose to leave closer Ryan Madson in the bullpen, while the St. Louis Cardinals beat Danys Baez and J.C. Romero for a walkoff victory. In at least one alternate universe, events played out differently.)

***

"The reverse side also has a reverse side."- Japanese proverb

***

BOTTOM OF THE NINTH INNING IN ST. LOUIS, PHILLIES AND CARDINALS TIED AT 1

Ryan Theriot never had a chance. Under typical circumstances, a plate appearance against Ryan Madson, the Phillies' northpaw closer, would be a tough situation for the Cardinals' right-handed hitting second baseman. Facing Madson, with the Phils' reliever pitching on three days' rest, was downright untenable. Theriot slumped back to the dugout, considering himself fortunate to have at least fouled off the second of Madson's three fastballs. At least his leadoff whiff had included a loud foul, Theriot consoled himself.

***

The easy move, the "conventional" move, would have been to hold Ryan Madson in reserve for a potential save situation. If the Phillies' mostly-absent offense could actually provide a second run, perhaps even one of the earned variety this time, Madson would finish up for the save. When it comes to road games, that's just "how it's done."

Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel wasn't particularly interested in making the "conventional" move. Or the move that could be most easily-defended later. Manuel didn't let arbitrary statistics dictate his bullpen maneuvers. With the top of the Cardinals' order due to bat, he was going to use his best remaining pitcher. If it meant that the likes of Danys Baez and J.C. Romero would be called upon to protect a lead later, so be it. Manuel sure as heck wasn't going to lose with Madson still on the bench.

***

Cardinals' outfielder John Jay wasn't about to be intimidated by Ryan Madson's fastball. Jay had experienced success against Madson in the past. Well, maybe not a lot of success. In his only career plate appearance against Madson, Jay had flied out. But it was a long, loud out, a fastball driven to deep centerfield, a blast that would have left the ballpark under more favorable weather conditions. If the left-handed Jay had connected with that pitch a millisecond earlier, Madson's fastball would have landed in the right field seats. Jay would be ready this time. Madson twirled and fired, Jay coiled and swung, ...and weakly dribbled a change-up to third base for the second out.

***

Charlie Manuel wasn't much for all the newfangled stats and theories. He based his decisions on what he'd seen. In his more than sixty years worth of watching baseball, he'd seen a lot. Above all the lessons Manuel had learned in those six decades was one: Focus on the process. Luck has a tendency to intersect with talent in beautiful and mysterious ways, or in hideous and terrifying ways, depending upon the point of view. Manuel knew to focus on the methodology behind his decisions, rather than the results, as he was well-aware that those results were largely outside of his control. Over the long run, Manuel believed that correct process would lead to success, at least more often than not. The results in the short run? Who knows? That's baseball. Or life.

***

Cardinals' slugger Albert Pujols strode purposefully to the plate, ready to send the fans home happy with a single swing. There was a reason that sponsorship of Pujols' baseball reference page cost a cool $1540. Actually, there were four hundred and fifteen reasons, with number four hundred and sixteen only a pitch away. But not the next pitch, as Pujols lined to left to retire the side.

***

TOP 10

Fernando Salas pitching.

Offensive substitution: Pinch hitter Ross Gload replaces Ryan Madson.

Ross Gload called out on strikes.

Carlos Ruiz grounds out, third baseman Daniel Descalso to first baseman Albert Pujols.

Jimmy Rollins homers (3) to left.

Michael Martinez strikes out swinging.

BOTTOM 10

Pitcher Change: Danys Baez replaces Ryan Madson, batting 8th.

Matt Holliday singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ben Francisco.

Pitcher Change: J.C. Romero replaces Danys Baez, batting 8th.

Lance Berkman homers (12) to center field.

Final score: Cardinals 3, Phillies 2.

***

“People judge too much by results. I’m just the opposite. I care about more than
results. I’d rather make a good pitch and give up a bloop single than make a bad
pitch and get an out.” - Greg Maddux

Examining Manuel: Was Contreras' Injury Avoidable?

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

Closer Jose Contreras joined previous closer Brad Lidge on the Disabled List on Sunday, further depleting the Phillies' bullpen. It's easy to look at Contreras' workload over the past week (four appearances in five days/five appearances in seven days), and conclude that Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel overworked the veteran reliever, which contributed to his injury. Given that Contreras is 39, and has only spent one full season as a reliever, perhaps a lighter usage pattern would have been prudent. Of course, Manuel's mandate is to win ballgames, and with only Contreras and Ryan Madson as dependable bullpen options, limiting Contreras' appearances is easier said than done. Still, was Manuel's usage of Contreras defensible?

April 15th: Contreras enters the game in the top of the 9th inning. The Phillies trail the Marlins, 4-3. The Phillies have a Win Expectancy of 17.4%. The Leverage Index (LI), as Contreras faces his first batter, is .64.

Remember, a LI<1.0 is a low leverage ("not suspenseful/stressful") situation. Preferably, a weaker reliever (both Kyle Kendrick and David Herndon were available) would be used here. Of course, either option would likely have been successful in knocking the Phillies' Win Expectancy into single digits. However, the most important factor to consider here: Contreras hadn't pitched for four days (last appearance was April 10th). Contreras needed the work. Contreras retired all three batters he faced, throwing nine pitches. Conclusion: Correct Usage

April 17th: Contreras enters the game in the top of the 9th inning. The Phillies lead the Marlins, 3-2. The Phillies' Win Expectancy is 84.2%. The Leverage Index (LI), as Contreras faces his first batter, is 2.84.

High leverage, a day off between appearances, no problems here. Contreras allowed a pair of walks, but successfully protected the lead, throwing twenty-two pitches. Conclusion: Correct Usage

April 18th: Contreras enters the game in top of the 10th inning. The Phillies are tied with the Brewers, 3-3. The Phillies' Win Expectancy is at 50%. The Leverage Index, as Contreras faces his first batter, is 2.30.

As the Phillies were at home, there would be no save situation, once the game reached extra innings. This appearance was Contreras' third, in four days. Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Kendrick were both available. (Both appeared later in the game.) Danys Baez was also available (bad option for high leverage situations, such as this one), but did not appear in the game. Manuel could have, possibly, gone with Bastardo in the 10th inning. But he still would have, likely, have had to use Contreras in the 11th inning. Giving Contreras the day off might have been a good idea, but the game circumstances seemed to prohibit it. Contreras retired all three batters he faced, throwing only nine pitches. Conclusion: Correct usage. Contreras would, likely, have been needed in either the tenth or eleventh inning. This was a winnable ballgame, at least until Kendrick entered.

April 20th: Contreras enters the game in the top of the ninth inning. The Phillies lead the Brewers, 4-3. The Phillies' Win Expectancy is at 84.2%. The Leverage Index (LI), as Contreras entered the game, was 2.84.

This was Contreras' third appearance, in four days. The LI and WE both call for Contreras' use. It could be argued that Bastardo could have been used in the eighth, with Madson in the ninth. However, the LI ranged from 1.84 to 3.81 in the eighth inning, so using Bastardo in that situation may have been dicey. Given that two of those three Contreras appearances each lasted only nine pitches, using Contreras is defensible here. Contreras faced four batters, throwing fifteen pitches. Conclusion: Correct usage

April 21st: Contreras enters the game in the bottom of the ninth inning. The Phillies lead the Padres, 3-0. The Phillies' Win Expectancy is 97%. The Leverage Index (LI), as Contreras entered the game, was .72.

Ryan Madson had appeared in three of the four previous games, so Manuel wanted to stay away from him. Antonio Bastardo was used in the seventh and eighth innings. Baez probably could have been used to start the ninth, with Contreras available, if needed. But that would have been a bit of a gamble, and Contreras may have been needed anyway. Contreras held the Padres scoreless, but was forced to throw twenty-six pitches. It was Contreras' fifth appearance, in seven games. Conclusion: Incorrect usage. Very tough decision, given the game circumstances/relief options, but Manuel should have tried to keep Contreras out of the game.

Overall conclusions:

• Manuel needs another reliable option for high leverage situations, beyond Madson and Contreras. This third option could be Bastardo, but it isn't yet. (Of course, with Contreras on the DL, Bastardo will likely be force-fed into high leverage situations. I think he will do fine in higher leverage opportunities, but have concerns about his durability.)
• The poor performance of the Phillies' offense has made managing the bullpen exceedingly difficult. The Phillies are playing a lot of close games, which is necessitating the (over?)use of the Phillies' high leverage relievers. The Phils need to win some blowouts, so they can give Madson/Contreras more rest.
• It's difficult to fault Manuel for his use of Contreras. There was no guarantee Contreras wouldn't have been needed, to rescue Baez in the ninth inning in San Diego, if Manuel had tried to rest Contreras. There's no guarantee that Contreras wouldn't have required a Disabled List stint, even if he hadn't pitched five times, in seven days. Manuel is doing his best to win games, with the cards he has been dealt. If there is a failure here, it's a failure of roster construction.

 

Examining Manuel: 4-12-2011

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

Joe Blanton is not exactly off to a great start. In Tuesday night's 7-4 loss to the Nationals, Blanton allowed five runs, in six innings. His ERA is an unsightly 10.45. But after two starts, it's too early to worry about the veteran northpaw. A .429 BABIP (league average BABIP is~.300), and a 49.5 LOB % (league average LOB % is ~70%) imply that Blanton has been unlucky. His current xFIP of 3.33 implies that he has pitched better than his results indicate. Hopefully, Blanton will see some BABIP/LOB regression to the mean in the near future.

Game Graph, Courtesy of Fangraphs

Game graph

The turning point in this game was the fourth inning, when the Phillies' Win Expectancy dropped from 44.1% to 15.2%, as the Nationals took a 4-1 lead. The Phils would fail to increase their Win Expectancy for the remainder of the game.

Against RHP Livan Hernandez, right-handed hitting Ben Francisco batted fifth, between lefties Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.

Batting Francisco fifth prevents the opposition from being able to use the same left-handed reliever to face Howard and Ibanez, without having to deal with Francisco. Given that Francisco is outperforming Ibanez currently, he should probably always be batting higher in the lineup.

With the Phillies and Nationals tied 1-1 in the fourth inning, Blanton faced four high leverage (Leverage Index (LI)> 1.5), situations, in five batters. He allowed three runs, and the Phillies Win Expectancy plummeted by almost 30%.

It was too early in the game to consider a reliever. Against the bottom of the Nationals' order, Blanton needs to do better.

Entering the top of the seventh inning, the Phillies trailed, 4-1. With the tying run at the plate, and one out, right-handed batting Wilson Valdez faced right-handed pitcher Livan Hernandez, in a 1.45 leverage situation.

The way the Phillies' lineup is usually set up, the eighth spot (Valdez) and ninth spot (pitcher) are prime pinch-hitting territory. The large majority of the team's pinch-hitting appearances should be for this segment of the lineup. Manuel's bench options include a capable right-handed hitter (John Mayberry, Jr.), a capable left-handed hitter (Ross Gload), a backup catcher than he won't use to pinch-hit (Brian Schneider), and weak-hitting Pete Orr (RHB) and Michael Martinez (BHB). With only two good pinch-hitting options, Manuel has to choose when to use them carefully. Valdez is much weaker against lefties, than he is against righties, but neither Orr and Martinez are more than a slight upgrade against lefties.

With the pitcher on deck, Manuel was reticent to use one of his two good pinch-hitters to bat for Valdez, as he knew that he would be need to use one next. Manuel didn't want to exhaust his only two worthwhile pinch-hitting options in only the seventh inning. While that thinking is understandable, I don't think it is correct. As the tying run was on deck, you need to go with one of your sluggers, rather than GIDP-master Valdez. With the righthander Hernandez on the mound, Manuel probably should have batted Ross Gload here. Fortunately, Manuel's decision to let Valdez bat worked out, as the second basemen singled.

Top of the seventh inning, one out. Bases Loaded. Phillies trail, 5-1. RHP Livan Hernandez on the mound, RHP Tyler Clippard ready, if needed. LHB Ross Gload and RHB John Mayberry, Jr. available to bat. Leverage Index is 2.56.

The obvious (and correct?) choice here is Ross Gload. Mayberry, Jr. struggles against RHP, and off-speed stuff, so a matchup against Hernandez is far from preferable. Manuel chose Mayberry, Jr., and Mayberry, Jr. struck out swinging.

After the game, Manuel indicated that he batted Mayberry, Jr., because he felt that the young outfielder had a better chance of a game-tying homer there. However, all he needed there was a two-run single, and to turn the lineup over to the top of the order. Gload would have been a better option.

In the ninth inning, with the Phillies trailing 7-3, Wilson Valdez was allowed to lead off the inning against left-handed reliever Sean Burnett.

This late in the game, Manuel probably should have batted for Valdez. Assuming Manuel was saving Ross Gload to bat next, Pete Orr and Michael Martinez may have been superior options to Valdez, at least against a southpaw. Valdez faced Burnett, and singled.

With left-handed reliever Burnett still on the mound, and right-handed reliever Drew Storen ready to relieve, Manuel chose to use switch-hitter Michael Martinez.

Against a left-handed reliever, Gload is a better choice than Martinez. Against a right-handed reliever, Gload is a better choice than Martinez. The only possible advantage to this move would have been if Martinez had forced the Nationals to counter with Storen, as the top of the Phillies' order matches up better against Storen. However, Martinez is not enough of a concern to warrant a pitching change. Martinez grounded out, Burnett stayed in the game, and the Phillies lost. Ross Gload, the Phillies' best pinch-hitter, never got a chance to bat.

Examining Manuel: 4-9-2011

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

Another blowout victory by the Phillies on Saturday, 10-2 in Atlanta. Winner Roy Oswalt pitched six strong innings, allowing two runs (one earned), and contributing .128 in Win Probability Added (WPA). Pinch-hitter Carlos Ruiz had the big blow, a seventh-inning grand slam, which was good for .113 in WPA. Game Graph!

 

Game Graph, Courtesy of Fangraphs

The bottom portion of the Game Graph measures the "Leverage Index (LI)" at different points during the game. According to Fangraphs,

Leverage Index is an attempty to quantify the level of suspense at different times in the game. For example, a one-run lead late in the game is much more suspenseful than a one-run lead early in the game. An average (neutral) LI is 1.0, an LI below 1.0 is considered "low leverage", and an LI above 1.5 is considered "high leverage." Approximately 10% of real game situations have a LI greater than 2, while 60% have an LI less than 1.

As you can see from the LI graph, there wasn't much suspense after Ruiz' seventh inning grand slam. The LI was .15, or lower, after that point. In terms of Win Expectancy, the Phillies' WE was at 97.2% after Ruiz' blast. A team's best relief pitchers (ex. Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras) often are reserved for high leverage situations (LI>1.5), while weaker options (ex. Danys Baez and David Herndon) are reserved for low leverage situations (LI<1.0). Last season, Manuel used his best relief pitchers in low leverage situations (ex. Ryan Madson in the ninth inning, protecting a six-run lead) a bit too often. Hopefully, he'll improve in that area in 2011. (Maybe someone in the Phils' clubhouse, with Fangraphs access, should be helping inform Manuel's bullpen decisions?)

The big red spike in the LI graph occurred in the bottom of the sixth inning, with Roy Oswalt on the mound. The Phillies were holding a 3-2 lead, with two outs, the bases loaded, and Jason Heyward at the plate. It doesn't get much more high leverage than that, especially that early in the game. Oswalt retired Heyward, in a situation where the LI was 5.16, adding .129 in Win Expectancy (WE). (The Phillies' probability of a win increased from 57.3%, to 70.2%, as a result of that plate appearance.)

Next, we will examine some of Manuel's strategic decisions.

Carlos Ruiz was given the day off, replaced by Brian Schneider, batting 7th. The rest of the typical lineup, including Ryan Howard-Ben Francisco-Raul Ibanez in the 4-5-6 spots, was used.

The left-handed Schneider got the start against Atlanta's right-handed starting pitching, Brian Beachy, in the day game after a night game. It's very convenient to have a left-handed hitting backup catcher, when your starting catcher bats from the right side.

With a scheduled off day on Monday, it is viable for Manuel to use his best lineup all weekend, against the division rival Braves. The Phils play the Nationals on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Expect to see some of the reserves get starts in those games, particularly on Wednesday night, when the Nats will start LHP John Lannan. Raul Ibanez, Wilson Valdez, and Placido Polanco are good candidates for off-days against LHP.

In the first inning, with two outs and a runner on third, the Braves had RHP Beachy intentionally walk LHB Ryan Howard, in order to face RHB Ben Francisco. In the pursuit of a single out, this seemed like an advantageous move, but it backfired when Francisco singled in the game's first run. Think the process behind this move was good, however.

In the bottom of the sixth inning, with two outs, and the Phillies clinging to a 3-2 lead, the Braves loaded the bases for Jason Heyward. Right-handed starter Roy Oswalt, who was at 88 pitches, was permitted to face the left-handed slugger.

Here's that 5.16 LI situation, the big red spike in the LI graph. Ideally, the Phillies would have had a left-handed reliever ready for this situation. However, their options were not ideal. J.C. Romero is not a good choice in high leverage situations. Antonio Bastardo, who struck out Heyward on Friday night, was unavailable due to his two-inning, thirty-five pitch outing the night before. It was likely too early in the game for Ryan Madson to be deployed, so Oswalt was the best available choice. Oswalt retired Heyward to end the inning.

With the Phillies leading 3-2, Raul Ibanez began the top of the seventh with a double. With left-handed catcher Brian Schneider due to bat, the Braves brought in left-handed reliever George Sherrill. Manuel countered with right-handed pinch-hitter John Mayberry, Jr.

It wasn't a question of if Manuel should pinch-hit for Schneider, if was a question of which right-handed bat he would choose. Removing Schneider meant that Carlos Ruiz' day off was cancelled, but the opportunity for a crucial insurance run was too much to pass up.

Manuel's top two pinch-hitting choices here were Ruiz and Mayberry, Jr. Both are good choices against a LHP, while Ruiz is a better choice against RHP. RHP Scott Linebrink was warming for the Braves, but LHP Sherrill was locked into facing that batter. Given that Manuel might want to pinch-hit for either (or both) of the next two batters (Wilson Valdez and pitcher Oswalt), having Mayberry, Jr. face Sherrill was the right move. Ruiz, who was definitely coming into the game to catch, with Schneider removed by a pinch-hitter, would be available to pinch-hit later in the inning. Mayberry singled, moving Ibanez to third.

Top of the seventh, Phillies lead 3-2, no outs, runners on first and third, LHP Sherrill on the mound, RHP Linebrink ready to enter the game, RHB Wilson Valdez scheduled to bat.

Valdez is a weak hitter against RHP, and an atrocious hitter against LHP. Considering the Phillies' weak relief options for the bottom of the seventh (Romero, Danys Baez, David Herndon), the Phils would probably have preferred to keep Oswalt, batting next, in the game. The Phils best options here were LHB Ross Gload, who would likely have faced LHP Sherrill, or RHB Ruiz, who likely would have faced RHB Linebrink. The Ruiz v. Linebrink option would have been preferable for the Phillies. However, surprisingly, Valdez was allowed to bat. This non-move, for all intents and purposes, meant that Roy Oswalt would leave the game, which Manuel may have already decided. (Well, unless GIDP Valdez managed to hit into a triple play.) Valdez, instead, walked to load the bases. Not sure about the process behind Manuel's non-move here, but the result was good.

Top of the seventh, bases loaded, Phils lead 3-2, no outs. Oswalt scheduled to bat.

Obvious move to pinch-hit for Oswalt here, with a huge chance to break the game open. Manuel chose the Ruiz v. Linebrink option, which was preferable to the Gload v. Sherrill option. Ruiz hit a grand slam, giving the Phils a 7-2 lead.

With a 7-2 lead, Manuel was able to stay away from his high leverage relievers (Madson, Contreras), and finish the game with low leverage options (Herndon, Romero, Baez). Romero faced two right-handed batters in his inning, which was fine in a low leverage situation. Manuel's decision not to pinch-hit for Valdez in the seventh was questionable, but the success of his moves (and non-moves) played a large role in the Phillies' victory.

Examining Manuel: 4-8-2011

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

The Phillies jumped to a 3-0 lead in the third inning (Win Expectancy= 76%), against Braves' starter Tim Hudson. Unfortunately, the Braves knocked Phils' starter Cliff Lee around for six runs, while Hudson (and the Braves' bullpen) held the Phillies scoreless the rest of the way. To the Game Graph!

Game Graph, courtesy of Fangraphs

Promising start for the Phillies, but Atlanta held a stranglehold on the Win Expectancy after the third inning. Martin Prado's second-inning double (+.132) and Chipper Jones' fourth-inning double/should-have-been-scored-a-Victorino-error (+.202) were the most damaging blows to the Phils' WE. Cliff Lee posted a very unsightly WE of -.498. Let's look at some Manuel strategy.

The Phillies used their starters at each position, with right-handed hitting Ben Francisco batting between lefties Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.

The Phils also used this 4-5-6 combo against Mets' left-handed starter Jonathan Niese on Thursday. As the Braves bullpen possesses lefties George Sherrill, Eric O'Flaherty, and Jonny Venters, the Phils' batting order prevented the Braves from being able to use a single lefty to get through the four- and five-spots, without facing a right-handed batter. Given Ibanez' relative difficulties against southpaws, this should be the Phillies' 4-5-6 combo against left-handed starters, and against teams with strong left-handed bullpen options.

Starter Cliff Lee was pulled in the third inning, with one out, and runners on first and third. The Phillies trailed 6-3.

Lee had uncharacteristic command problems, frequently leaving the ball up in the zone. The aggressive Braves smacked him around for ten hits. If Victorino catches Jones' "double", the scoreboard damage could have been smaller. However with Lee having thrown seventy-three pitches, and the Phillies still within three runs, removing Lee then was the right move.

Kyle Kendrick entered the game, replacing Lee.

Manuel wanted his next reliever to consume multiple innings, and 6th (7th?) starter Kendrick is his best choice for that role.

Kyle Kendrick replaced Lee in the batting order, batting ninth. Weak-hitting 2B Wilson Valdez, batting eighth, had made the final out in the previous inning.

When the Phillies are trailing, and have their starting lineup in the game, the only non-pitcher that should be substituted in a double-switch is 2B Wilson Valdez. (He is easily the worst hitter in the starting lineup, hot start aside, and there is not much of a drop offensively between Valdez and backup Pete Orr.) Inexplicably, Manuel opted not to double-switch here, and weak-hitting pitcher Kendrick lead off the next inning. (Even more inexplicably, Kendrick singled, in a stark example of good result, despite bad process.)

After Kendrick pitched one and two-thirds scoreless innings, Manuel relieved him with Antonio Bastardo. Bastardo entered the game in the eighth spot in the lineup, with Pete Orr replacing Valdez at 2B, and batting ninth.

The lineup looped around perfectly for Manuel to get another shot at a Orr-Valdez double-switch. Given Manuel's belief in Valdez' superior defensive capabilities, this move seemed to imply that Manuel hoped to use Bastardo for multiple innings. If Manuel expected Bastardo to pitch a single inning, he likely would have kept Valdez in the game. Then, he could have used one of his strong pinch-hitters (Gload, Mayberry, Jr.) to pinch-hit for Bastardo in the top of the seventh.

Bastardo pitched two brilliant, scoreless innings, allowing only a single, while striking out six.

Bastardo has been outstanding this season, throwing four and two-third scoreless innings, and allowing only two singles (zero walks/nine strikeouts). He has the potential to become the seventh-inning shutdown reliever that the Phillies need (to precede Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras).

Manuel has to be careful with the oft-injured reliever's workload, however. Bastardo has pitched on three of the last four days, and threw thirty-five pitches on Friday. Bastardo was incredible on Friday, and was the Phils' best choice to keep them in that game, but Manuel needs to stay away from using him during Saturday's game (preferably Sunday's game, as well.) The rest of the bullpen, with the possible exception of Kyle Kendrick, should be available on Saturday. (I think the right move here would have been to use Bastardo for a single inning, pinch-hit for him in the 7th with Mayberry, Jr., and let Danys Baez handle the eighth inning.)

Examining Manuel: 4-7-2011

Posted by Mike Frohwirth

 

Very impressive 11-0 win by the Phillies on Thursday afternoon. Seven scoreless frames from Roy Halladay, a 4 for 4 day from Wilson Valdez (!), and two-hit games from Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco, and Jimmy Rollins paced the Phils' 16-hit demolition of the Mets. Not a lot of strategy to review, so let's take a look at the Game Graph first.

Fangraphs.com

For a Phillies fan, that's a pretty good-looking Win Expectancy curve. From the bottom of the third on, the Phils spent the rest of the game over 50% WE. They never dipped under 98% after the bottom of the fifth, in a very comfortable victory. The Win Probability Added (WPA) leaders were Roy Halladay, who's contributions added 22.7% to the probability of a win (WPA=.227), and Shane Victorino, who added 12.7% (WPA=.127).

Right-handed hitting outfielder Ben Francisco batted fifth, between left-handed batters Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.

As Raul Ibanez hits better against RHP, than he does against LHP, moving him down against LHP Jon Niese was advantageous. Splitting the lefties also came in handy later in the game, when southpaw Tim Byrdak entered the game. Considering that Francisco is raking right now, Manuel should probably roll with this 4-5-6 ordering for awhile.

With a 8-0 lead, Roy Halladay was allowed to bat for himself in the bottom of the sixth inning. Halladay pitched the seventh, and left with a 10-0 lead. Halladay threw 113 pitches.

Totally baffling move by Manuel here. On Opening Day, Halladay was removed for a pinch-hitter (weak-hitting Pete Orr, as Manuel wanted to save he stronger PH options) in the bottom of the 6th, with the Phils trailing, 1-0. He had thrown 101 pitches. Considering the Phillies' weak 7th inning relief options, that was a questionable move. It didn't work, as J.C. Romero and David Herndon allowed three runs in the top of the seventh. (Note: We are more concerned with the process, than the results. Both were bad here.)

This time, Manuel kept Halladay in for that extra inning, despite a huge lead. There was no excuse for keeping Halladay in to throw 113 pitches, in 50 degree weather, with an eight-run lead.

Danys Baez (8th inning) and David Herndon (9th) finished up, each throwing one scoreless inning.

Thankfully, neither Ryan Madson nor Jose Contreras was brought in to protect a double-digit lead. Baez and Herndon should both be available on Friday.

The Phillies lead 8-0 after five innings, 10-0 after seven innings, and 11-0 after eight. Manuel kept his starting eight in for the entire game.

It's still early in the season, but why not give some of the starters a few innings of rest, and let the reserves play a few innings? The starters can't get hurt in the dugout (or clubhouse), and the reserves could use a little playing time. Not every game will provide these opportunities, so it seems prudent to take advantage of them, when they do occur.