Philliedelphia

OF Michael Bourn Signs With Cleveland Indians

Michael Bourn has finally landed....in Cleveland.

That's right. Bourn, 30, and the Indians have inked a contract that could lock him in a Tribe uni through 2017. Bourn will make approximately $12MM a year for four years with a vesting option that could make it a five-year, $60MM deal.

The two-time Gold Glover has waited a long while to find a home for 2013. After a long offseason of quietness and fictious signings, Bourn finally has a job. Bourn hit .274 with 9 home runs, 57 RBI, and 42 stolen bases last season with the Braves. From 2009-2011, Bourn led the NL in stolen bases. 

Bourn joins the Indians, who signed OF Nick Swisher on December 23 and P Daisuke Matsusaka to a minor-league deal yesterday, in an effort to take back the American League Central. 

The Phillies won't see Bourn as often as they did when he was in a Braves uni, but they will see him twice this season when the Indians come to town on May 14-15. 

Follow Erik on Twitter @ErikSeyboldPHI.

Doom and Gloom For the Phillies? I'm Not Buying It

I've read it enough that I've kind of got to the point of being tired of it: The Phillies are done, and Amaro is a bust. In fact, even optimism is fake now. Seriously. This team is just screwed. I mean, first we heard how bad Michael Young is, then how Ben Revere has no power, then how Lannan couldn't make the Nationals (I personally don't see Ross Detweiller as worlds better, but ok), then how Mike Adams is a bust, and of course now how Delmon Young is the worst signing ever. We're screwed, royally.

 

I just have trouble buying it. This isn't shocking, I'm one of the few people on the 'net that thinks that Billy Beane and his "Moneyball" is an utter failure (in a decade plus's time, he hasn't had one team make the World Series), so I'm not quite always with the prevailing wisdom. I both don't think the Nationals and Braves have improved as much as others think, and I don't think the Phillies are in such a ridiculous decline either. Am I saying the Phillies are the team to beat, or even necessarily better than the Braves today? No. I also would say that I probably wouldn't have done much different this off-season, and I think this team will be a contender.

 

Let's start with the competition. In 2013, the Mets and Marlins are pathetically bad baseball teams on paper, and don't warrant much discussion, except to say that the Phillies better put double digit wins (I'm thinking 25 total, at least) on both of them. Let's then move to the teams that matter, the Nationals and Braves. Here's their off-seasons to date:

 

• Nationals- Replace Edwin Jackson with Danny Haren, Replace Michael Morse in the line-up with Denard Span, Replace Sean Burnett with Rafael Soriano.
• Braves- Replace Michael Bourn with B.J. Upton, Replace Martin Prado with Justin Upton, Replace Chipper Jones with Chris Johnson. Add Jordan Walden while giving away Tommy Hanson.

Let's not kid ourselves, almost all of these moves could go either way. Haren could be healthy, he could not, in which case that wildly alters the fifth starter situation in DC. They'll miss Morse, but Span is solid and fills more of a need, though he doesn't upgrade their production much. Soriano is an upgrade on Burnett, but he's also another righty in a 'pen full of them. The Braves may have gained in the power department, but given up some in other areas of their offense. The most likely take away from this is that both teams are about as good on paper going into the year as they were last year- when both finished ahead of the Phillies, and made the playoffs.

Let's now put the Phillies through the same ringer, and see how they look.

• Ben Revere essentially takes Juan Pierre's line-up role, and Mayberry's defensive job at the end of the year.
• John Lannan essentially replaces Vance Worley.
• Mike Adams essentially replaces no one, as we had no real set-up person that is gone.
• Michael Young replaces Placido Polanco.
• Delmon Young essentially replaces Mayberry in the line-up, and Pierre defensively, but mostly Schierholtz on the roster.
• Kevin Frandsen now replaces Michael Martinez, as Erik Kratz replaces Brian Schneider.

Revere is a better defender than Mayberry, though a younger, similar version of Pierre. Lannan may end up being a downgrade from Worley, but maybe not too. Adams, even last year's worst season of his career version, is a huge upgrade on anything we had. Young is an upgrade offensively, and health wise, on Polanco. Young should be a better hitter than Mayberry, but a much worse defender than Pierre. Frandsen and Kratz would appear to be upgrades, right now. Looking at it this way, the Phillies right now are a little better than they were at the end of last season- in which they finished 81-81, but 44-31 in the second half of the season.

What all of this means about the Phillies is, they are about as good as their health is. Does Chase Utley play a full season, and 130 games or more? How about Ryan Howard? Does Roy Halladay join Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels making 30 All-Star level starts this season? If those things are true, there is no reason to doubt that this team can win 92-95 games as constructed right now, even in a difficult division. Post trade deadline they played very well against both Washington and Atlanta in their head-to-head games.

For those of you who are very sabermetric friendly, look at it like this- Revere was a 2.4 WAR player in 2012, while Pierre was a 1.9 WAR player. Lannan was a 0.3 WAR pitcher, while Worley was a 0.7 WAR pitcher. While Michael Young was a -2.4 WAR player (which strikes me as ridiculous for a .277 hitter with 79 runs scored, but ok), Polanco was somehow a 0.3 (which strikes me as almost disqualifying for this stat). Delmon Young's -1.2 WAR (similarly weird to me, but ok) wasn't good, but Schierholtz's -0.1 WAR wasn't either. Frandsen's 1.5 WAR and Kratz's 1.4 WAR, are both huge upgrades on Martinez's -0.2 (which is simply not low enough) and Schneider's 0 WAR. Mike Adams adds 1.2 WAR. Bottom line? We're 0.6 WAR better (Note that I don't really believe in WAR).

What's that all mean? Well, it means that we're probably dependent on some aging stars having come back years, such as Halladay, Howard, and Utley. Lots of blogs are saying it won't happen, and that this team has become much worse this off-season, and for my two cents I couldn't disagree more. If Roy Halladay's issue was a lat-pull (which is what they say), and he took the time to heal this winter (which they say again), then I have to believe he will return much closer to what he was in 2011 than in 2012. Based on the power numbers put up by Howard and Utley in their shortened seasons, I have no reason to doubt they still have some good baseball left too (also, in Utley's case, how much he did play after returning, nearly every day period, is a good sign). If those three are good this season, and the Phillies other players don't all turn to trash, why aren't they a 90 win team? I'm still not picking up that argument very well.

My optimism that the 2013 Phillies can still be at least a playoff level team is tempered by lots of things, sure. They're not as young as the other two competitors in this division. They finished third last year. The Nationals and Braves have some very nice ballplayers, and frankly still have more financial flexibility than we appear to have right now, if we need a move in season. Finally, yes, I do know that guys who get injured seriously tend to keep getting injured, so I'm not rock solid in my hopes for Utley, Howard, or Halladay. My skepticism is not based on the moves the Phillies made this off-season though, or the moves of the Nationals and Braves. We may flop this season, sure, but it will be because the core of our team has aged, not because we brought in Delmon Young.

I'm also not using this to defend Ruben Amaro's overall performance, which I'd rate as somewhere between low mediocrity and decent. He's made trades and signings I like, such as moves for Halladay and Lee, but also moves I can't stand, such as the entire Hunter Pence fiasco, not playing Dom Brown for an extended enough period to come to a final opinion, and even the higher than market value deals with Howard and Papelbon (mostly because we don't have those dollars for other things, not because the players stink). He's won three divisions in four years, but we've went backwards in the post-season picture each year. Our drafts, since he was hired over Mike Arbuckle, have not so far yielded the kinds of blue-chip talents that Arbuckle was landing when he built our title teams. I still think he's not doing enough to sign international talent either. With that all said, I'm neither willing to call his tenure a complete failure yet, or that this team is going nowhere.

I will defend his off-season though. Should we have overpaid B.J. Upton, or traded every chip left in our system (which still probably doesn't get it done) to get his brother? Should we over pay the wildly mediocre Nick Swisher, or give Angel Pagan a major payday after his best year? I think not. Ruben spent this off-season giving out very short-term commitments to players who might make this team just a little bit better this year, in the hopes that his core players, many of them facing impending free agency, can pull out one more year of greatness, and give the developing talent he does have, one more year to develop. Cody Asche, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph, Tyson Gillies, Jesse Biddle, and other names who will be in Reading and Allentown, will probably have more to do with how this team is in three years than Delmon Young and Michael Young, and by extension, they will probably have more to do with whether or not Ruben Amaro is still here in two or three years. By resisting the urge to overpay a Josh Hamilton, Ruben kept this off-season from digging his payroll hole deeper with an aging team. I actually have to say this off-season is better than last, when he both spent money and didn't upgrade the team much.

All of this talk will soon be irrelevant. Spring training is almost here, and I'm actually remaining optimistic on the whole.

Delmon Young Will Get Paid $600,000 Extra To Eat Less

Photo: Erik Seybold's glorious photoshop skills

Delmon Young has a lot to work for in order to make all of his incentives. Not only must Young stay out of trouble off the field, but he must also watch what he eats. Looks like no cheesesteaks for Delmon.

In a report by Philly.com's Matt Gelb, Delmon Young is eligible to gain an extra $600,000 if he can keep his weight under 230 pounds.

Young's one-year, $750,000 contract includes bonuses based on his weight, according to The Associated Press. Young must be weighed six separate instances, the timing of which will be chosen by the Phillies. 

Each time he makes weight, Young receives $100,000. The first three times he must weigh 230 pounds or less. He must weigh 235 pounds or less for the last three weigh-ins.

Young says as of Tuesday's physical, his current weight tips the scale at 238 pounds. He needs to lose eight pounds before his first weigh-in in order to get paid his incentives.

Young's other incentives include $250,000 for being on active roster for a week and an additional $100,000 each for 40, 80, 120 and 160 days. 

It seems to me like the Phillies are trying to shape Delmon Young into a respectible and fit teammate as both will benefit the organization and himself.

Follow Erik on Twitter @ErikSeyboldPHI.

Report: Phillies add Brian Bass, Tom Cochran, and Joe Mather

Utility player Joe Mather even pitched the Cubs out of a jam in August 2012. 

While the Delmon Young rumors are cooking up, Jeff Schuler of the Morning Call reports that pitcher Tom Cochran will be returning to the Phillies organization as will Brian Bass who pitched in Lehigh Valley during the 2011 season. Also in the mix is outfielder/third baseman Joe Mather who got a nice handful of at bats with the Chicago Cubs last season hitting a .209/.256/.324 clip (better than Michael Martinez I suppose).

Not looking good for Mini Mart who's already facing utlity competition from Freddy Galvis and Andres Blanco.

Report: Phillies "Seriously Considering" Signing OF Delmon Young

According to a report from CSN's Jim Salisbury, the Phillies are considering a deal with OF Delmon Young. 

The Phillies are still looking for a corner outfielder and Ruben Amaro Jr., who usually keeps team matters to himself, has not denied any rumors of the Phillies and Young.

Amaro, who typically keeps matters of free-agency close to his vest, did not deny that.

“We’ve kicked around a lot of stuff,” he said. “He’s among them.”

Asked if he’d spoken with Young’s representatives, Amaro said: “We’ve talked to everybody, everybody who is still out there, the whole gamut.”

Young batted .266 in 2012 while tallying 18 home runs and driving in 74 runs. Young also hit .296/.411/.707 in 151 games for the Tigers last year. Despite an average regular season, Young had a phenomenal offseason, batting .359 (11 for 31) while hitting three homers and seven RBIs in the ALCS and World Series.

Young would be a great addition to the Phillies lineup, but his off-the-field controversy could be an issue. In April of 2012, Young was arrested in New York after screaming anti-Semitic remarks while intoxicated. Young was suspended by the Tigers and MLB and has since apologized for the incident. 

Amaro would not discuss Young’s off-field history in specifics. He did discuss in general the idea of pursuing players who have “baggage.”

“We have to keep our minds open on everything,” Amaro said.  “Of course I have reservations about guys who have had some issues. But we’ve got to keep our minds open also.”

Amaro said the Phillies have to be cognizant of their payroll while looking for late-winter roster tweaks.

“We’re looking for low-risk, high-reward guys if we can,” he said.

Young is still a very talented hitter and could be on the verge of entering his prime, but another factor that can be worrisome is that he spent last season mainly as a designated hitter. Young only appeared in the outfield in 31 of 151 games last year.

Although Delmon Young is a great prospect and a talent the Phillies could definitely use, he's not a desperation move - yet. The Phillies still have candidates for the corner outfield spots in Darin Ruf, John Mayberry Jr., Domonic Brown and Laynce Nix. If Young would come to Philly, he could become an everyday-player if he can live up to the expectations.

We will keep you updated on this story.

Follow Erik on Twitter @ErikSeyboldPHI.

Roy Halladay Scheduled to Throw Off Of A Mound For the First Time This Offseason

(Photo: Todd Zolecki/2012)

It's been nearly five whole months since we've heard any news about the Good Doctor. No heroic tales from the Amazon, nor any updates on his health. Today, however, there is some good news about the Phillies ace.

According to CSN's Jim Salisbury, Roy Halladay will throw from a mound (weather permitting) for the first time this offseason in Florida. Halladay had an injury-ridden 2012, one of his career-worst seasons. He went 11-8 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP despite missing significant time (May 29- July 17) with a shoulder strain which was later diagnosed to be a strained latissimus dorsi (strained lat muscle). 2012 was the first season since 2004 that Halladay had not been voted as an All-Star or been a candidate for the Cy Young Award.

I personally think that the Phillies rushed Halladay back to the mound last season, but you can't blame the team completely because Doc is a tank and he can be stubborn. Hopefully a five month rest on his arm, lat muscles, and his body altogether will be enough recuperating time for Halladay to stay healthy throughout 2012 and pitch to perfection like he has in the past.

Also in today's news, Kyle Kendrick is set to pitch off of a mound today as well. Kendrick is most likely going to be the Phillies' fourth man in the rotation (John Lannan will most likely be the fifth man) after going 11-12 with a 3.90 ERA in 2012, one of the best records for a fifth spot starter last year.

Follow Erik on Twitter @ErikSeyboldPHI

Phils in the WBC, And a Look at the Rosters

Three Phillies' system players will be on Team Canada in 2013.

If you want to have a reason to watch the World Baseball Classic, and like the Phillies, you'll have some stuff to watch. Old friend Shane Victorino will be on Team USA. Then there's three Phillie system players going to play for Team Canada- Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Pete Orr. For Aumont, it's a second go-around, and another chance to wow a large audience.

The Phillies have been active lately on the free agency market as well. Old Phillies Rodrigo Lopez is returning to the team on a minor league deal. He'll likely join the Iron Pigs rotation, helping them add depth.

Now inside the 30 days out period until the first day of pitchers and catchers at spring training, I feel like it's a good time to start discussing the 2013 rosters. First, here's my current projection for the big league club:

• Rotation- Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, and Lannan 
• Line-Up- Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, Young-3B, Brown-RF, Ruf-LF, Kratz-C
• Bullpen- Papelbon, Adams, Aumont, Bastardo, Stutes, Horst, De Fratus
• Bench- Frandsen, Quintero, Galvis, Mayberry, Nix
• 40 Man, Optioned- Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Gillies, Hernandez, Valle, Diekman, Valdes, Schwimer, Savery, Robles, Ramirez
• Suspended- Ruiz-C

After the Phillies roster, there is an Iron Pigs roster to build. Right now, I see this roster:

• Rotation- Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Lopez, Rosenberg
• Line-Up- Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, Valle-C, Overbeck-1B, Mitchell-LF, Fields-3B, Mitchell-RF, Blanco-SS, Orr-IF/DH
• Bullpen- Diekman, Valdes, Schwimer, Savery, Robles, Ramirez, Miner
• Bench- LeRud, Martinez, Susdorf

Obviously, more can change, and the bullpen is the most competitive area, but this seems to look like a team right now. Rosters can move a lot, but Ruben Amaro's work looks increasingly done.

Improving a Strength, Signing a Closer Not Always Helpful

The 102 win Phillies signed Papelbon..... He did great too..... They won 81 games.

The Nationals went bold today and signed Rafael Soriano, which has there fans and many other writers declaring them the team to beat for 2013. Seems understandable, I mean even the Philly Press is saying so now.

I have a couple thoughts here, and on the whole I'll just start by saying it's a good move. Soriano is a much better closer than the seemingly mentally soft Storen, who may well be wrecked after his collapse in game five of the NLDS. Over the course of the season though, is this a big move? For one, Soriano, Tyler Clippard, and Drew Storen are all right-handed, and this team will badly miss the departed lefty, Sean Burnett. If Storen is kept, and doesn't take well to this, they could also be carrying around a malcontent reliever. At best, the Nationals now have three closers to pitch the last two innings, instead of two, and this was not a problem last year.

This is kind of the main point to me. It's one thing when you bring in a big-time player to replace a real weak spot on your team. If you're the 2007 Phillies, using Tom Gordon and Brett Myers to close games, bringing in Brad Lidge in his prime can be the difference that brings you the 2008 World Series (it was). Same thing with Keith Foulke and the 2004 Boston Red Sox. When a team replaces a strength with a little bit better player though, the small difference in production usually does not change the result though. Think about the Yankees trading Alphonso Soriano for Alex Rodriguez as the best example of this. Clippard and Storen combined to be one of the top closer/set-up combos out there last year, adding Soriano increases their odds of repeating that, but it doesn't fix any weaknesses.

That move did pan out though.

Closers in general are a tough commodity to value. Again, you could look at the Lidge and Foulke examples, and you could assign a high value to closers. You could say the same by looking at many other great closers with rings- Mariano, Papelbon, and Wilson come to mind. At the same time, there are lots of examples of closers doing well and their teams struggling (Papelbon last year), and of teams with bad to no closers going fairly far (2007 and 2009 Phillies, 2003 Red Sox). There are teams that had to solve closing games in a makeshift way (2012 Giants lost Wilson early, 2012 Tigers' closer fell apart, 2008 Rays threw Price into that as a September call-up), and go very far. The importance of closers to winning seems to be much less clear than say, having a number one starter.

I'd still say this is not a bad move by Washington though, even if it's not the silver-bullet some make it seem. As I said, Soriano is better than the guys who were closing, so it's hard to argue with it on the field. Even before this move, many people would pick the Nationals to win the division, so this doesn't hurt. The one good thing they have set up is, they can trade a late-inning reliever in Storen or Clippard, and slugger Michael Morse, recoup some prospects, and keep their system deep.

Under 30 days until spring training. It'll be fun to watch if anyone in the division responds. I'd argue the Braves still have the best bullpen, easily, in the division. The Nationals should be solid, but so should the Phillies.

Phillies Sign RHP Rodrigo Lopez to Minor-League Deal

Holy crap the Phillies have made a move. 

According to Fernando Ballesteros at the Mexican baseball magazine Puro Beisbol, the Phillies have signed 37-year-old Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal. Lopez, who is signing on for his second stint with the Phillies, last played for the team in 2009. (It is worth noting that it was Lopez's spot in the rotation that was given up for Cliff Lee when he was acquired from Cleveland.)

That season, Lopez went 3-1 with a 5.70 ERA in 5 starts. Last season with the Cubs, Lopez posted a 5.68 ERA and tallied an 0-1 record in just 4 games. He spent most of the 2012 season in Triple-A, where he posted a 5.28 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings.

Lopez will serve as veteran depth in the Phillies Triple-A rotation and could possibly serve as a fill-in starter in the big leagues. 

Follow Erik on Twitter @ErikSeyboldPHI.

New Phillies 3B Michael Young to Play on Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic?

I had no idea he might qualify.   According to Gerry Fraley of the Dallas News, new Phillies third baseman Michael Young may play for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.

Mexico lists Young among the candidates for its team. Young qualifies because his mother is of Mexican descent. Young has not indicated if he intends to play for Mexico.

Young played for the United States in 2006, when he played with Chase Utley and former Phillies Brad  Lidge and Brian Schneider.    The same year Young played for the United States the Mexican team had to use some non-major league talent, drawing from the Mexican League and even plucked former Phillies Spring Training invitee Karim Garcia from Japan to play.