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3/28 Phillies Roster Projections: No Changes

Yesterday I did a roster prediction for every team that is breaking camp in the Phillies system this week.

Today I have no changes.

Today they did play, and they did win their finale in Florida, a 7-2 win over the Blue Jays. The Phillies finish the Grapefruit schedule 16-15, and now head north to play the on-deck series at CBP starting tomorrow. They see the Blue Jays again, for both games.

Some of the big spring questions were answered. I'll re-cap the spring later, but for now, here's a recap of yesterday's roster projections.

Phillies-

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-RF, Mayberry-LF, Kratz-C.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, Valdes. In the running: Stutes, Cook.
• Bench: Nix, Frandsen, Galvis, Lerud, Inciarte. In the running: Orr, Quintero.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• 40 man, inactive: Gillies, Collier, Ruf, Hernandez, Valle, Pettibone, Cloyd, Martin, Stutes, De Fratus, Rosenberg, Diekman, Robles, Savery.

Lehigh Valley-

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Rosenberg, Morgan. In the running: Cochran, Bass.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Asche-3B, Joseph-C, Overbeck-DH,  Field-1B, Martinez-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Friend, Savery, Jimenez, Cochran. In the running: Bass, Hyatt.
• Bench: Orr, Quintero, Tolbert, Susdorf.
• DL: Bass, Blanco.

Reading-

• Rotation: Biddle, Buchanan, Garcia, Wright, Colvin. In the running: Hyatt.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, Hanzawa-SS, Welty-RF, Murphy-1B, Castro-LF, Valle-C/DH, Rupp-DH/C, Abreu-3B, Cartwright-2B.
• Bullpen: Simon, Robles, Rosin, Ramirez, Hyatt, Sosa, Ellis. In the running: Johnson.
• Bench: Suomi, Murphy, Mitchell, Hewitt. In the running: Henson.
• DL: Johnson, Henson, James.

Clearwater-

• Rotation: Hollands, Garner, Stewart, Kleven, Milner.
• Line-Up: Hudson-CF, Altherr-RF, Alvarez-LF, Franco-3B/DH, Martinez-1B/DH/3B, Alonso-1B/3B/DH, Ludy-C, Villalobos-SS, Carver-2B.
• Bullpen: Arias, Shreve, O'Sullivan, Murray, Nesseth, Hernandez, Giles.
• Bench: Lavin, Roof, Stassi, Moore.
• DL: Dugan, Stumpo. 

Lakewood-

• Rotation: Watson, Warner, Brady, Stefan, Martinez.
• Line-Up: Quinn-SS, Tocci-OF, Walding-3B, Serritella-1B, Pointer-OF, Greene-2B, Hill-C, Perkins-OF, Arthur-DH.
• Bullpen: Inch, Santos, Rojas, Broussard, Aizenstadt, Cooper, Oviedo.
• Bench: Quaranto, Olmo, Taylor, Mora.
• DL: Numata, Carmona.

Phillies Roster Projections, 3/27

Let this sink in for a moment- tomorrow is the last Grapefruit League game, and on Friday the Phillies will be in Philadelphia.

Ok, enough of that. Yesterday I put out a set of roster predictions for every team that will break camp and start next week. Literally nothing has changed with the big league Phillies, so I will simply quote myself on the roster:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-RF, Mayberry-LF, Kratz-C.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, Valdes. In the running: Stutes
• Bench: Nix, Frandsen, Galvis, Lerud, Inciarte. In the running: Orr, Quintero.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• 40 man, inactive: Gillies, Collier, Ruf, Hernandez, Valle, Pettibone, Cloyd, Martin, Stutes, De Fratus, Rosenberg, Diekman, Robles, Savery.

There is nothing different today, and the total roster positions open is still probably down to about 3. You have the Stutes-Aumont battle, the Lerud-Quintero battle, and the Inciarte-Orr battle, while there is also the question of who plays left field on Opening Day.

The drama is shifting to the minors, where there are lots of battles still ongoing. The IronPigs won yesterday's game to break a losing streak, and they'll break camp on Saturday. On Tuesday they'll host the Reading Fightin' Phils in an exhibition game, then they open Thursday. They're also going to have a cool urinal game system. I digress though. Their rotation appears to be nearly set too, according to the front office, which along with their workout groups, pretty much sets this team as nearly done.

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Rosenberg, Morgan. In the running: Cochran, Bass.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Asche-3B, Joseph-C, Overbeck-DH,  Field-1B, Martinez-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Friend, Savery, Jimenez, Cochran. In the running: Bass, Hyatt.
• Bench: Orr, Quintero, Tolbert, Susdorf.
• DL: Bass, Blanco.

With the rotation fairly set, the question is how the Phillies will stash Bass, Cochran, and Hyatt. I think they'll DL one of Bass and Cochran, stick the other in the bullpen, and send Hyatt to Reading. Leandro Castro is also a big issue here, as he probably will get sent down too if the Pigs don't DL Tolbert. Hernandez played yesterday, so he will not get DL'ed. Andres Blanco is totally inactive, so expect him to be DL'ed.

AA:

• Rotation: Biddle, Buchanan, Garcia, Wright, Colvin. In the running: Hyatt.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, Hanzawa-SS, Welty-RF, Murphy-1B, Castro-LF, Valle-C/DH, Rupp-DH/C, Abreu-3B, Cartwright-2B.
• Bullpen: Simon, Robles, Rosin, Ramirez, Hyatt, Sosa, Ellis. In the running: Johnson.
• Bench: Suomi, Murphy, Mitchell, Hewitt. In the running: Henson.
• DL: Johnson, Henson, James.

Jiwan James is out until July, which makes the Castro move easier here. That staff has talent, which will be interesting to watch, and the bullpen should be fun at the back-end too. The offense will be the question mark. Colvin making this team does cause down the line changes too.

A- Clearwater:

• Rotation: Hollands, Garner, Stewart, Kleven, Milner.
• Line-Up: Hudson-CF, Altherr-RF, Alvarez-LF, Franco-3B/DH, Martinez-1B/DH/3B, Alonso-1B/3B/DH, Ludy-C, Villalobos-SS, Carver-2B.
• Bullpen: Arias, Shreve, O'Sullivan, Murray, Nesseth, Hernandez, Giles.
• Bench: Lavin, Roof, Stassi, Moore.
• DL: Dugan, Stumpo. 

There's a lot of talent in that line-up. I'm really intrigued about Dugan, though he's not going to start the season. This takes us to Lakewood, where I show no changes from yesterday, so:

• Rotation: Watson, Warner, Brady, Stefan, Martinez.
• Line-Up: Quinn-SS, Tocci-OF, Walding-3B, Serritella-1B, Pointer-OF, Greene-2B, Hill-C, Perkins-OF, Arthur-DH.
• Bullpen: Inch, Santos, Rojas, Broussard, Aizenstadt, Cooper, Oviedo.
• Bench: Quaranto, Olmo, Taylor, Mora.
• DL: Numata, Carmona.

With that, I think we're set for another day.

3/26 Phillies Roster Projections

Another day, another day closer to Opening Day. Today's the day we'll find out about Aaron Cook's future here, as he'll either make the team, be sent to AAA and get $100,000 in bonus money, or walk away from camp. I hope he stays, and don't think he will. If he goes the way of our old friend Yuniesky Betancourt, it's worth noting that Betancourt ended yesterday unemployed still.

Beyond that, the battles are very, very clear now. There's Cook-Valdes, which is likely to be settled today. If Cook wins, expect a 40 man move as well, so there's two losers. Then there's the Aumont-Stutes battle, which kind of goes hand in hand with the other. Then of course, you have the Quintero-Lerud battle, which is coming down to the finish, closer than expected. Finally there's the Inciarte-Orr-nameless pick-up battle for the last outfield spot.

With all of that said, here's the roster projection:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-RF, Mayberry-LF, Kratz-C.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, Valdes. In the running: Stutes, Cook.
• Bench: Nix, Frandsen, Galvis, Lerud, Inciarte. In the running: Orr, Quintero.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• 40 man, inactive: Gillies, Collier, Ruf, Hernandez, Valle, Pettibone, Cloyd, Martin, Stutes, De Fratus, Rosenberg, Diekman, Robles, Savery.

The big story here is that Lerud now beats out Quintero because he had a better spring. Cook narrowly misses and stays off the 40 man, since he'll get the bonus either way and it makes no sense to give him a spot.

This takes me down to AAA. The Morning Call's "Hog Blog" has their roster projection up. Phuture Phillies is up with the last set of workout groups. Here's my version of AAA, Lehigh Valley:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Cochran, Hyatt. In the running: Cook, Morgan, Bass.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Orr-2B, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Asche-3B, Joseph-C, Overbeck-1B, Fields-DH, Martinez-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, Savery, Jimenez, Friend.
• Bench: Castro, Quintero, Susdorf, Tolbert.
• DL: Hernandez. 

There's a lot of buzz that Morgan will make this team, but I'm in the doubting camp. He wasn't up in Reading that long last summer, and I don't see them rushing him right now. It's hard to tell who comes back ready to go between Martinez, Hernandez, and Tolbert, as all are shelved right now, but I doubt that even two of them go to the DL. 

Now AA:

• Rotation: Morgan, Biddle, Buchanan, Garcia, Wright. In the running: Colvin.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, Hanzawa-SS, Welty-RF, Murphy-1B, Valle-C/DH, Rupp-DH/C, Mitchell-LF, Abreu-3B, Cartwright-2B. 
• Bullpen: Simon, Robles, Ramirez, Ellis, Rosin, Sosa, Johnson.
• Bench: Suomi, Murphy, Henson, Hewitt.
• DL: James, Duran.

My sense here is that the offense is a little down compared to last year, but they have some talent. I'm putting Valle and Rupp in as regulars because I don't think they'll sit one regularly, although sometimes you'll see Hewitt or Suomi DH, and the other sit as a back-up catcher.

So then, A ball in Clearwater:

• Rotation: Colvin, Hollands, Garner, Stewart, Kleven.
• Line-Up: Hudson-CF, Altherr-RF, Alvarez-LF, Franco-3B, Martinez-DH/1B, Alonso-1B/DH, Ludy-C, Villalobos-SS, Carver-2B.
• Bullpen: Arias, Shreve, Milner, O'Sullivan, Murray, Nesseth, Hernandez.
• Bench: Moore, Roof, Stassi, Lavin,
• DL: Dugan, Stumpo.

Lot of talent here, I would hardly be shocked to see some of it in AA this season. The offense is pretty good, the staff has guys who are ready for the next step, and there's actually going to be some decent guys not starting everyday.

Finally, A ball in Lakewood:

• Rotation: Watson, Warner, Brady, Stefan, Martinez.
• Line-Up: Quinn-SS, Tocci-OF, Walding-3B, Serritella-1B, Pointer-OF, Greene-2B, Hill-C, Perkins-OF, Arthur-DH.
• Bullpen: Inch, Santos, Rojas, Broussard, Aizenstadt, Cooper, Oviedo.
• Bench: Quaranto, Olmo, Taylor, Mora.
• DL: Numata, Carmona.

That's all for today. The workout groups seem to be pretty telling.

Phillies Roster Projections 3/25

Well, one can't accuse Ruben Amaro of not doing anything. The Phillies are essentially down to just one decision. Here's the news:

• The Phillies have cut Yuniesky Betancourt. No shock there. There just wasn't 40 man room to add him. Besides, Galvis played well enough this spring that using an option on him would be stupid.
• Virtual lock to make Reading's rotation, and one of the most impressive pitchers (numbers wise) in the organization up until the middle of last year, Julio Rodriguez was traded. This is a surprise to me. The Phillies picked up outfielder Ronnie Welty from Baltimore's system in the deal, who hit 13 homers over 213 at-bats in AA or lower.
• Doc didn't pitch good yesterday, and Amaro was quiet about it afterwards. I'm concerned about him.

In a spring that has been better than not, about the only two things that haven't been "on schedule" were Ruf and Halladay. Otherwise, you have to be happy overall. 

The last decision remaining is on Aaron Cook really. I prefer they keep him, however they need to do it. I expect they won't.

So here's my roster projection:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, Young-3B, Brown-RF, Mayberry-LF,  Kratz-C.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst, Valdes. In the running: Cook, Stutes.
• Bench: Frandsen, Galvis, Nix, Inciarte, Quintero.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• 40 Man, Inactive: Hernandez, Valle, Collier, Gillies, Ruf, Pettibone, Martin, Cloyd, Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, Robles, Savery.

I think things are pretty well set. Cook and Stutes are still in camp, and therefore in competition, but the jobs are settled for the most part. With Betancourt gone, I think Inciarte's a safe bet to start the year on the team, barring a move still to come in the next week. 

So with that, the Iron Pigs and Reading could be effected by the Rodriguez trade, not only because his spot in Reading's rotation is open, but also because Willey is likely to be assigned to AA. My guess is that he doesn't change the Iron Pigs:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Cochran, Bass. In the running: Cook, Morgan.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Joseph-C, Fields-3B, Overbeck-1B, Blanco-SS, Orr-2B, Mitchell-DH.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, Robles, Savery, Jimenez.
• Bench: Lerud, Martinez, Susdorf, Tolbert.
• DL: Hernandez.

So a couple things here. I really, really wouldn't mind seeing the Phillies start Morgan out here, but I doubt it, especially after the trade. He'll start in AA I think, then make the move up. I'm going to swap in Tolbert due to Hernandez injury.

AA:

• Rotation: Morgan, Hyatt, Biddle, Buchanan, Wright. In the running: Colvin, Hollands, Garner.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, Castro-LF, Asche-3B, Murphy-1B, Willey-RF, Valle-C, Hewitt-DH, Murphy-2B, Hanzawa-SS.
• Bullpen: Friend, Simon, Ramirez, Hollands, Lafferty, Shreve, Ellis.
• Bench: Suomi, Abreu, Alvarez, Gallagher.
• DL: James.

Alonso comes up at least while James is out. I put Wright in for now, edging out the other options for the fifth spot in the rotation. The first three in the bullpen could be interchangeable with Jimenez in AAA.

A: 

• Rotation: Colvin, Garner, Garcia, Stewart, Kleven.
• Line-Up: Altherr-RF, Hudson-CF, Franco-3B, Martinez-1B, Rupp-C, Alonso-DH, Lavin-LF, Cartwright-2B, Duran-SS.
• Bullpen: Sosa, Rosin, O'Sullivan, Whatcott, Nerris, Johnson, Murray.
• Bench: Hill, Serritella, Perkins, Stassi.
• DL: Dugan, Pointer.

Honestly, this is a real guess at  some spots. It's hard to predict this team without knowing the first two. 

3/23 Phillies Roster Notes

Frank Klose of Philliedelphia created this goodie.

Well, this is getting easier to figure out, even if it doesn't make much sense.

• Ruf got optioned, as did Jermaine Mitchell. Rodrigo Lopez got released.
• The Phillies are looking to make moves.

So with that stuff all known, here's the latest roster projection:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan. 
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-LF, Mayberry-RF, Kratz-C.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst, Valdes. In the running: Cook.
• Bench: Nix, Frandsen, Inciarte, Galvis, Quintero. In the running: Betancourt.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.

Ruf and Mitchell being optioned made this a little easier. We just don't know yet what happens with Cook and Betancourt. It also makes the AAA roster easier:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Cochran, Bass. In the running: Cook.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Joseph-C, Fields-1B, Overbeck-1B/DH, Orr-3B, Blanco-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Robles, Rosenberg, Savery, Jimenez.
• Bench: Lerud, Martinez, D. Mitchell, Susdorf.

The big change here is Rodrigo being out. This will make it easier to promote Adam Morgan in a couple of months. Also, I'm dropping Hanzawa back down for now.

So AA:

• Rotation: Morgan, Rodriguez, Hyatt, Biddle, Buchanan. In the running: Wright, Colvin, Hollands.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, James-RF, Asche-3B, Murphy-1B, Castro-LF, Valle-C, Hewitt-DH, Murphy-2B, Hanzawa-SS.
• Bullpen: Friend, Simon, Ramirez, Hollands, Lafferty, Shreve, Whatcott.
• Bench: Suomi, Abreu, Tolbert, Alvarez.

And High-A:

• Rotation: Wright, Colvin, Garner, Stewart, Garcia.
• Line-Up: Altherr-RF, Hudson-CF, Dugan-LF, Franco-3B, Martinez-1B, Rupp-C, Alonso-DH, Cartwright-2B, Duran-SS.
• Bullpen: Sosa, O'Sullivan, Nerris, Rosin, Johnson, Murray, Knigge.
• Bench: Hill, Serritella, Gallagher, Lavin.

That's all I have for now. I'm sure the minors will still surprise me. The big leagues look close to set.

Phillies Notes and Roster Projections, 3/21

After a day off, not a lot has changed today in the Phillies roster situation. Yesterday though, some news was made. Today some non-field news was. Here's my latest:

• Doc will pitch in a minor league game Saturday. Dare I say there will be more attention there than Sarasota. 
• Kendrick looked awesome yesterday. So the pitcher who just threw a sinker and a normal fastball now is pitching better with a change-up. Good.
• People are noticing Dom Brown's success. I'm just wondering when he's officially announced as a starter?

So now that we dispensed with the news, here's my roster update:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-LF, Mayberry-RF, Kratz-C. In the running: Ruf, Nix.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst, Valdes. In the running: Stutes, Cook.
• Bench: Nix, Frandsen, Inciarte, Galvis, Quintero. In the running: Ruf, J. Mitchell, Betancourt.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.

I'm going to say Mayberry will start Opening Day and Nix will not really be a platoon partner. For all the talk about Ruf underperforming, his .671 OPS beats Nix's .606. I'd like to see Nix get the job and hopefully succeed (so Delmon Young isn't a guy we depend on), but I'm definitely not sure on Nix getting much playing time. I also continue to think the bench looks as is, and Aumont, Horst, and Valdes will be the last three in the bullpen. No changes here.

Now, AAA:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Lopez, Martin, Cochran. In the running: Cook, Bass.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Joseph-C, Fields-1B, Overbeck-1B/DH, Blanco-SS, Orr-3B. In the running: Martinez, Valle.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, Robles, Savery, Jimenez. In the running: Simon, Friend.
• Bench: Martinez, Lerud, D. Mitchell, Hanzawa. In the running: Suomi, Susdorf.

I'll take it a step forward. I have no changes in any level for today. So the minor league projections here are the same now. Hopefully by Sunday we'll know.

Phillies Roster Projections and Notes, 3/19

Well, the last two days have brought some interesting roster cuts, and a lot of offense, and yes, green uniforms. While your lucky charms might be getting a bit soggy by today, the race for the roster is heating up. What's the news of note?

• Justin De Fratus and Jake Diekman will be up the turnpike from Philadelphia in Allentown, as both were optioned out of camp on Sunday morning. Considering how high on these two the organization has been, I'm a little surprised by this move, for it's timing. I thought they'd hang in at least another week.
• Yuniesky Betancourt could be a trade candidate? Apparently the Cardinals want him, which is no shock. I don't see much chance that Betancourt wouldn't opt out next Sunday, because I don't believe the Phillies will option down Galvis and keep him. With that in mind, and the Cardinals interest, I see no reason not to look for some kind of minor league depth for him.
• Michael Cisco, Chris Duffy, and Gauntlett Eldemire were all shipped out of minor league camp, Cisco just given to the Angels and the others cut. These moves are a necessary part of the late spring, as the team makes long term decisions about whether a player fits into the plan.
• The Phillies hit the hell out of the ball today, but lost 17-10 to Atlanta. Cliff Lee pitched in the minor league game, but it's nice to see the line-up hit.

So now, with all this news, what's the roster gonna look like?

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan. 
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-LF, Mayberry/Nix-RF, Kratz-C. In the running: Ruf-RF/LF.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst, Valdes. In the running: Stutes, Cook.
• Bench: Mayberry/Nix, Frandsen, Inciarte, Galvis, Quintero. In the running: J. Mitchell, Ruf.
• DL: D. Young
• Restricted: Ruiz
• 40 Man, Inactive: Valle, Hernandez, Ruf, Gillies, Collier, Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Savery, Rosenberg, Robles.

I'd love to see us strike a deal to stash Inciarte in AA ball, perhaps moving someone from a 40 man slot who is out of favor right now, then use the two slots to add Cook and Mitchell, but I'm doubtful. This is what I see shaking out right now.

So then, the AAA club:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Lopez, Martin, Cochran. In the running: Bass, Morgan.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Joseph-C, Fields-1B, Overbeck-DH/1B, Orr-3B, Blanco-SS. In the running: Asche-3B, Martinez, Valle-C.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, Robles, Savery, Jimenez. In the running: Friend, Ramirez, Simon.
• Bench: Lerud, Martinez, D. Mitchell, Hanzawa. In the running: Suomi, Susdorf.

I hope this is the team, for the most part. Asche will get to AAA this team, he doesn't have to out of camp. On to AA:

• Rotation: Morgan, Rodriguez, Hyatt, Biddle, Buchanan. In the running: Wright, Colvin, Hollands.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, James-RF, Asche-3B, Murphy-1B, Castro-LF, Valle-C, Hewitt-DH, Murphy-2B, Duran-SS. 
• Bullpen: Friend, Simon, Ramirez, Hollands, Lafferty, Shreve, Whatcott.
• Bench: Susdorf, Suomi, Abreu, Tolbert.

Not a lot of changes. So, what about a stab at Clearwater?

• Rotation: Wright, Colvin, Garner, Stewart, Garcia.
• Line-Up: Altherr-RF, Hudson-CF, Dugan-LF, Franco-3B, Rupp-C, Martinez-1B, Alonso-DH, Cartwright-2B, Quinn-SS. 
• Bullpen: Sosa, O'Sullivan, Neris, Rosin, Johnson, Murray, Knigge.
• Bench: Hill, Alvarez, Serritella, Gallagher.

I know this isn't going to be right- but hey, it's worth a stab.

Roster Projections, 3/17

On a weekend where John Lannan and Raul Valdes were firing and Dom Brown was slugging, the Phillies roster really wasn't changed much. I think the main questions that are out there still exist, and none of the main spots in question are settled.

Here's the good news- De Fratus, Stutes, and Valdes are all firing right now. The bad news? There is no bad news in that. Here's the latest roster projection I have:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan. 
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, Young-3B, Brown-LF, Nix/Mayberry-RF, Kratz-C. In the running: Ruf- RF/LF.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Aumont, Durbin, Bastardo, Valdes, Horst. In the running: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Cook.
• Bench: Nix/Mayberry, Frandsen, Inciarte, Galvis, Quintero. In the running: Ruf, Betancourt, Mitchell.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• DL: D. Young.
• Last 5 off: Ruf, Cook, De Fratus, Stutes, Diekman.
• 40 Man, Inactive: Ruf, Gillies, Hernandez, Collier, Valle, Pettibone, Cloyd, Martin, Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, Savery, Robles.

I would like to see Mitchell at least get a 40 man spot for his hot spring, but we'll see what happens there. As of now, no one's been DFA'ed this spring. Quintero will get added for Ruiz's suspension, then he'll go, but the Phillies would still be at 40. Hopefully we'll see some movement that opens up one or two slots for Mitchell and Cook, though I think Mitchell would accept a AAA slot. Phuture Phillies did a pretty good roster projection last night too, if you want another read.

Which takes us to AAA. Who makes the AAA squad? Here's my guess:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Lopez, Cochran. In the running: Cook, Bass.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Joseph-C, Fields-1B/3B, Overbeck-DH/1B, Orr-3B, Blanco-SS. Others in the running: Martinez, Valle, Betancourt, Asche.
• Bullpen: De Fratus, Stutes, Diekman, Rosenberg, Robles, Savery, Jimenez. Others in the running: Friend, Ramirez, Miner.
• Bench: Martinez, D. Mitchell, Lerud, Hanzawa. In the running: Susdorf, Suomi.

And of course, AA:

• Rotation: Morgan, Rodriguez, Hyatt, Biddle, Buchanan. In the running: Wright, Colvin, Hollands.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, James-RF, Asche-3B, Murphy-1B, Castro-LF, Valle-C, Hewitt-DH, Murphy-2B, Duran-SS
• Bullpen: Friend, Simon, Cisco, Ramirez, Hollands, Lafferty, Shreve.
• Bench: Susdorf, Abreu, Suomi, Tolbert.

I think the only real drama here is whether or not Cook and Betancourt are around in a week. My guess on Betancourt is no, since teams need SS help. Cook may get a 40 man spot I believe, which would shake things up minorly. The big decisions in the upper levels are the catchers, and where Asche plays, otherwise I think things are kind of just going to play out as is. I'm not secure in my Hewitt pick here either. 

Phillies Roster Predictions and Notes, 3/15

Yesterday was a pretty nice day for Phillies fans. The team won the game, and Roy Halladay threw what Rich Dubee called a good bullpen session. In fact, some are even saying we shouldn't be worried about Halladay's last start. I'm not bothered by his line- I'm bothered by two straight starts of falling velocity. If that starts to turn back to 89-90 MPH's next start, he's fine. If not, I'll be worried.

Darin Ruf's performance has started to pick up, slightly, and he's still very much in the running. Mike Stutes also is picking it up now. I don't see many changes though in my roster projections, though:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan. Others in play: Cook, Lopez.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-RF, Nix/Mayberry-LF, Kratz-C. Others in play: Ruf-LF.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst, Stutes. Others in play: De Fratus, Valdes, Diekman.
• Bench: Frandsen, Nix/Mayberry, Galvis, Inciarte, Quintero. Others in play: Lerud, Betancourt.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• Others on 40 man: Valle, Hernandez, Gillies, Collier, Ruf, Pettibone, Martin, Cloyd, De Fratus, Valdes, Diekman, Robles, Rosenberg, Savery.
• Opts Out: Cook, Betancourt.

So a couple of changes here. A couple of good innings from Stutes made him the pick over De Fratus, for today. Hitting a homer and getting a hit in the last two days doesn't quite get Ruf onto the team, for now. If that continues, maybe that changes. Quintero still edges out Lerud, and Galvis over Betancourt. Valdes and Diekman remain in the running obviously, because they're the last guys up. Quintero remains on the 40 man only until Chooch is back. The interesting call will come when Delmon Young gets off the DL. Inciarte will need to play well to be safe there, and he's another who's 25 and 40 man slots are inter-locked, unless you believe Mayberry or Nix could be available then, or Galvis could go down. I had them DFA'ing Savery two days ago to keep Cook, but I doubt that now. They probably will be comfortable with one of the guys on the 40 man, though Cook is throwing well enough to make it.

On the pharm, Phuture Phillies posted the new workout groups in minor league camp. Additionally, Phillies Nation reported on the Phillies signing a few new minor league deals, including the return of Andres Blanco. So, with all of that in mind, here's the roster in Lehigh Valley:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Lopez, Martin, Cochran. Also in the running: Bass, Cook, Morgan, Rosenberg.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Joseph-C, Fields-1B, Overbeck-DH, Orr-3B, Blanco-SS. Also in the running: Martinez, Valle, Suomi, D. Mitchell, Betancourt.
• Bullpen: De Fratus, Diekman, Valdes, Rosenberg, Savery, Robles, Jimenez. Others in the running: Ramirez, Miner, Friend.
• Bench: Martinez, Lerud, D. Mitchell, Hanzawa

So the bullpen will be filled by all the 40 man guys, plus Jimenez, while the rotation is also going to be all familiar faces to Phillies fans. The line-up's only changes are the return of Blanco, and Overbeck as the full-time DH with Mather's release.

This takes me to Reading, where the roster is even harder to predict, because you just don't know how the organization views a player's development. Here's what I have though:

• Rotation: Morgan, Rodriguez, Hyatt, Biddle, Buchanan. Also in the running: Wright, Colvin, Hollands.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, James-RF, Asche-3B, Murphy-1B, Castro-LF, Hewitt-DH, Valle-C, Williams-2B, Duran-SS
• Bullpen: Simon, Friend, Cisco, Ramirez, Hollands, Lafferty, Shreve
• Bench: Abreu, Suomi, Mitchell, Tolbert

For now, I'm keeping Colvin and Wright in A ball, since this rotation looks pretty full. The line-up is nice, though maybe not as stacked as last year's. I love the bullpen though, there are some guys I'm very interested in seeing how they perform this year.

We still have 16 more days before Opening Day in Atlanta. Lots will happen.

An Updated View of the Phillies Roster, 3/12

Roy Halladay got rocked today. Like, rocked, rocked. He's only being clocked in the 84-85 range today too.

Ok, enough awful-ness, let's run through some other topics in the blogosphere today:

• The Phillies cut five guys: Tyler Cloyd, Tyson Gillies, Sebastian Valle, Mauricio Robles, and B.J. Rosenberg. High Cheese had notes on all five. None of these are shocks, though I guess I thought they'd look longer at some of these guys, with 20 days to spare.
• From the department of writing things too early that may be true in a few months, Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley says it's time to move on from Tyson Gillies. I'm not necessarily saying he's wrong on anything he writes here, I'd just like to see the season play out a bit before assuming that. If Ben Revere is everything we hope, he's right. If he's not, well then things change.
• Phillippe Aumont spoke out about his fight with Sebastian Valle. Kind of a non-issue to me, and I bet it was to the Phillies too. Valle was cut because he's not in the Phillies plans anymore, not because he hit someone in a baseball fight.
• Lament! Yuniesky Betancourt might make this team. I seriously doubt this. Yes, he's played well, but Freddy Galvis has played better, so unless they want Galvis to play everyday in Allentown, this is done. Besides that, they would have to add him to the 40 man by March 24th, and I'm guessing they're more likely to add Aaron Cook now after today.

Ok, so here's where we're at roster wise- be freaked out about Roy Halladay, seriously. That's really, really bad. Be heartened though by this- Ryan Howard, Michael Young, Ben Revere, Cole Hamels, Freddy Galvis, and Dom Brown are having great springs. Unfortunately, that's not enough right now. They'll need some more guys to have good years for this to work out. So here's what I have right now:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan. Still in the running: Cook, Lopez.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-RF, Mayberry/Nix-LF, Kratz-C. Still in the running: Ruf-LF.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst, De Fratus. Still in the running: Valdes, Stutes, Diekman.
• Bench: Quintero, Frandsen, Mayberry/Nix, Galvis, Inciarte. Still in the running: Betancourt, Lerud. 
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz
• 40 Man, Re-Assigned: Ruf, Gillies, Valle, Hernandez, Collier, Robles, Rosenberg, Cloyd, Martin, Pettibone, Valdes, Stutes, Diekman, Cook.
• Waivers: Savery

Alright, lots here. I have the rotation unchanged right now.  Halladay will say he's fine, even if he's not.  I don't think Ruf has won a spot yet, and he's running out of time for it. Other than that, the line-up is mildly good so far, and relatively set. The bullpen race is hot, but I think Aumont, Horst, and De Fratus win the jobs narrowly over Valdes, Stutes, and Diekman. With Valle and Joseph out of camp, my guess is that either Quintero or Lerud is getting the 40th man slot, and 25th spot, to be the back-up catcher until Chooch is back, and they get DFA'ed. I think Inciarte will make this team, and I feel confident that Galvis has won his spot, if it's on merit. I also don't see Betancourt having any room on the 40 man to take this from him. Now that leaves me with the 40 man slots. I essentially see the Phillies having a spot to decide on here: do you cut Savery or Robles, to keep Cook around (or for that matter Betancourt)? My guess after today is that Cook's stock is up, and Savery's fast cut takes him down. What could save Savery is if the Phillies decide that either A.) They'll save that slot for Adam Morgan or Jesse Biddle, or whoever later on, or B.) They decide now that they're happy with their AAA options here, on the current 40 man.

Obviously this changes the AAA team a lot too. Here's what I have there:

• Rotation: Cook, Lopez, Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin. In the running: Cochran, Bass.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Fields-1B, Mather/Overbeck-DH, Valle-C, Martinez-SS, Orr-3B. In the running: Asche-3B, Joseph-C, Betancourt-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, Diekman, Valdes, Rosenberg, Robles, Friend, Jimenez.
• Bench: Mather/Overbeck, Lerud, D. Mitchell, Susdorf, Tolbert. 

Ok, so I think the Phillies keep Lopez and Cook around. I don't believe Betancourt stays though. With all of that said, you get the roster above. I'm totally unclear at this stage as to whether or not they keep Joseph or Valle here, even though it's clear that Joseph has the lead through camp for the future. Same goes for Cody Asche. Justin Friend's good camp keeps him up here too. He's ready for the move.