Philliedelphia

Erik's 2013 Season Predictions: Cole Hamels Wins Cy Young & Phillies Back In Postseason

(Photo: Erik Seybold/Philliedelphia) - Cole Hamels is predicted to be the NL Cy Young Award winner after a career-year last season.

Tomorrow is Opening Day and hot dog am I excited! It's been a long offseason full of more Eagles dismay and a dramatic lockout-shortened NHL season and I'm ready for baseball. Last year was far from what we expected out of the Phillies, but hey - it happened and there's nothing we can do now to change the past. What we can do, however, is look ahead towards the 2013 campaign. With new acquisitions in Ben Revere, Michael Young, and Mike Adams - along with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley beginning the season healthy and ready to play - I'd say the Phillies can turn last year's trainwreck around and get back on the right track.

Enough of my rambling about how excited I am for this upcoming season. Here's my predictions for the 2013 season - including awards and so on.

American League

AL East winner: Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central winner: Detroit Tigers
AL West winner: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card winners: Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (DET)
AL Cy Young: Josh Johnson (TOR)
AL Rookie of the Year: Trevor Bauer (CLE)
AL Manager of the Year: Terry Francona

National League

 NL East winner: Washington Nationals
NL Central winner: Cincinnati Reds 
NL West winner: San Francisco Giants
NL Wild Card winners: Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen (PIT)
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels (PHI)
NL Rookie of the Year: Travis D'Arnaud (NYM)

2013 World Series

World Series Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs Detroit Tigers
World Series Winner: Cincinnati in 6 games 

Phillies Predictions

Total number of wins: 91
How many games Roy Halladay will win: 11

Who will spend the most games batting lead off? Ben Revere
Who will lead the Phillies pitchers in wins? Cole Hamels (18)
How many home runs will Ryan Howard hit this season? 34

As Frank earlier stated, giving the Phillies a healthy Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will benefit them immensely. Ben Revere is a total upgrade over Shane Victorino and Domonic Brown may have finally proved himself to be a great everyday outfielder. Michael Young is an RBI machine and with Mike Adams in the bullpen that blew 13 8th inning leads last season, I as well don't have trouble thinking the Phillies can win 11 more games than last year.

Erik Seybold is a writer for Philliedelphia. Follow him on Twitter @ErikSeyboldPHI.

 

Minor League Rosters Come Into Focus

Ryan Howard will not be an IronPig.

Today, the IronPigs broke camp and went north, as will the other teams in Florida within the system. With their win on Thursday, the IronPigs assured themselves of a winning spring. Today, they assured us of their rotation, announcing that Tom Cochran is staying behind in Extended Spring Training. Between this and the Phillies cuts, I'm comfortable calling the IronPigs roster:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Morgan, Rosenberg.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Asche-3B, Joseph-C, Overbeck-1B/DH, Fields-DH/1B, Martinez-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Savery, Friend, Jimenez, Miner.
• Bench: Orr, Lerud, Castro, Susdorf.
• DL-Left Behind: Blanco, Cochran.

The staff is impressive obviously, and entirely made up of guys with high upside. The line-up is also prospect heavy, and has lots of positive upside to look forward to this summer. Tuesday night I'll be watching them play Reading in Allentown. Speaking of Reading, no change in the final roster predictions there:

• Rotation: Biddle, Buchanan, Garcia, Wright, Colvin.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, Hanzawa-SS, Welty-RF, Murphy-1B, Mitchell-LF, Valle-C/DH, Rupp-DH/C, Abreu-3B, Cartwright-2B.
• Bullpen: Simon, Robles, Rosin, Ramirez, Sosa, Ellis, Neris.
• Bench: Suomi, Murphy, Tolbert, Hewitt.
• DL: James, Henson, Johnson.

I'd like to see them start Hewitt in A ball and put Henson on, but that'll wait. The interesting thing here is, they will probably have three catchers break camp with this group. I'll be watching the top of the rotation obviously with Biddle. There's a lot of other talent here too, and guys like Hewitt and Colvin are in basically make-or-break seasons. It will be interesting to see how the Rupp/Valle dynamic plays out too.

To round it out, here's Clearwater:

• Rotation: Hollands, Garner, Stewart, Kleven, Milner.
• Line-Up: Hudson-CF, Altherr-RF, Alvarez-LF, Franco-3B/DH, Martinez-1B/DH/3B, Alonso-1B/3B/DH, Ludy-C, Villalobos-SS, Carver-2B.
• Bullpen: Arias, Shreve, O'Sullivan, Murray, Nesseth, Hernandez, Giles.
• Bench: Lavin, Roof, Stassi, Moore.
• DL: Dugan, Stumpo. 

And, Lakewood:

• Rotation: Watson, Warner, Brady, Stefan, Martinez.
• Line-Up: Quinn-SS, Tocci-OF, Walding-3B, Serritella-1B, Pointer-OF, Greene-2B, Hill-C, Perkins-OF, Arthur-DH.
• Bullpen: Inch, Santos, Rojas, Broussard, Aizenstadt, Cooper, Oviedo.
• Bench: Quaranto, Olmo, Taylor, Mora.
• DL: Numata, Carmona.

I think the only surprise is that Larry Greene was left in camp. Beyond that, things are exactly where we thought they were. Lakewood is going to be really, really fun to watch.

3/29 Minor League Roster Projections- The Final Ones?

Morning Call IronPig's beat writer Jeff Schuler wrote in his piece about the team that the Phillies were supposed to release minor league rosters yesterday, but didn't. So they may release them anytime today. The other big news of the overnight was the release of Austin Hyatt, a starter for Reading and Lehigh Valley over the last two years. It is apparent to me that the Phillies did not see a move to the bullpen here as being worth it, and he was better off being a starter elsewhere.

With that said, this may be my last crack at it, but here's my IronPigs prediction:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Morgan, Rosenberg.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Asche-3B, Joseph-C, Overbeck-DH/1B, Fields-1B, Martinez-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Savery, Friend, Jimenez, Cochran.
• Bench: Orr, Quintero, Castro, Susdorf.
• DL: Blanco.

I think this is close to done. Cochran may not be safe if he doesn't win the fifth starter job, and Orr could possibly play short over Martinez. Either way, I don't see the actual roster changing.

So then, Reading:

• Rotation: Biddle, Buchanan, Garcia, Wright, Colvin.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, Hanzawa-SS, Welty-RF, Murphy-1B, Mitchell-LF, Valle-C/DH, Rupp-DH/C, Abreu-3B, Cartwright-2B.
• Bullpen: Simon, Robles, Rosin, Ramirez, Sosa, Ellis, Neris.
• Bench: Suomi, Murphy, Tolbert, Hewitt.
• DL: James, Henson, Johnson.

And down the A Ball level, no changes:

Clearwater-

• Rotation: Hollands, Garner, Stewart, Kleven, Milner.
• Line-Up: Hudson-CF, Altherr-RF, Alvarez-LF, Franco-3B/DH, Martinez-1B/DH/3B, Alonso-1B/3B/DH, Ludy-C, Villalobos-SS, Carver-2B.
• Bullpen: Arias, Shreve, O'Sullivan, Murray, Nesseth, Hernandez, Giles.
• Bench: Lavin, Roof, Stassi, Moore.
• DL: Dugan, Stumpo. 

Lakewood-

• Rotation: Watson, Warner, Brady, Stefan, Martinez.
• Line-Up: Quinn-SS, Tocci-OF, Walding-3B, Serritella-1B, Pointer-OF, Greene-2B, Hill-C, Perkins-OF, Arthur-DH.
• Bullpen: Inch, Santos, Rojas, Broussard, Aizenstadt, Cooper, Oviedo.
• Bench: Quaranto, Olmo, Taylor, Mora.
• DL: Numata, Carmona.

Final Roster Projection, 3/29

Photo by my Father in Minnesota, 2012.

Well, later today the Phillies will play the Blue Jays at Citizens Bank Park.  Being that these are the final two exhibition games, it seems time to make a roster prediction. Here goes our final one:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan.
• Line-Up: Revere-CF, Rollins-SS, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-RF/LF, Mayberry/Nix-RF/LF, Kratz.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Horst, Valdes, Aumont.
• Bench: Mayberry/Nix, Frandsen, Galvis, Lerud, Inciarte.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• 40 Man, Inactive: Gillies, Ruf, Collier, Hernandez, Valle, Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, Savery, Robles.

So I basically am predicting:

• Platoon in left-field. 
• Aumont wins out over Stutes, while Horst and Valdes are going to make it.
• Lerud beats out Quintero.
• Inciarte wins out over Orr because he's an actual outfielder.

So, that's my prediction. I guess we'll see soon.

3/28 Phillies Roster Projections: No Changes

Yesterday I did a roster prediction for every team that is breaking camp in the Phillies system this week.

Today I have no changes.

Today they did play, and they did win their finale in Florida, a 7-2 win over the Blue Jays. The Phillies finish the Grapefruit schedule 16-15, and now head north to play the on-deck series at CBP starting tomorrow. They see the Blue Jays again, for both games.

Some of the big spring questions were answered. I'll re-cap the spring later, but for now, here's a recap of yesterday's roster projections.

Phillies-

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-RF, Mayberry-LF, Kratz-C.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, Valdes. In the running: Stutes, Cook.
• Bench: Nix, Frandsen, Galvis, Lerud, Inciarte. In the running: Orr, Quintero.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• 40 man, inactive: Gillies, Collier, Ruf, Hernandez, Valle, Pettibone, Cloyd, Martin, Stutes, De Fratus, Rosenberg, Diekman, Robles, Savery.

Lehigh Valley-

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Rosenberg, Morgan. In the running: Cochran, Bass.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Asche-3B, Joseph-C, Overbeck-DH,  Field-1B, Martinez-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Friend, Savery, Jimenez, Cochran. In the running: Bass, Hyatt.
• Bench: Orr, Quintero, Tolbert, Susdorf.
• DL: Bass, Blanco.

Reading-

• Rotation: Biddle, Buchanan, Garcia, Wright, Colvin. In the running: Hyatt.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, Hanzawa-SS, Welty-RF, Murphy-1B, Castro-LF, Valle-C/DH, Rupp-DH/C, Abreu-3B, Cartwright-2B.
• Bullpen: Simon, Robles, Rosin, Ramirez, Hyatt, Sosa, Ellis. In the running: Johnson.
• Bench: Suomi, Murphy, Mitchell, Hewitt. In the running: Henson.
• DL: Johnson, Henson, James.

Clearwater-

• Rotation: Hollands, Garner, Stewart, Kleven, Milner.
• Line-Up: Hudson-CF, Altherr-RF, Alvarez-LF, Franco-3B/DH, Martinez-1B/DH/3B, Alonso-1B/3B/DH, Ludy-C, Villalobos-SS, Carver-2B.
• Bullpen: Arias, Shreve, O'Sullivan, Murray, Nesseth, Hernandez, Giles.
• Bench: Lavin, Roof, Stassi, Moore.
• DL: Dugan, Stumpo. 

Lakewood-

• Rotation: Watson, Warner, Brady, Stefan, Martinez.
• Line-Up: Quinn-SS, Tocci-OF, Walding-3B, Serritella-1B, Pointer-OF, Greene-2B, Hill-C, Perkins-OF, Arthur-DH.
• Bullpen: Inch, Santos, Rojas, Broussard, Aizenstadt, Cooper, Oviedo.
• Bench: Quaranto, Olmo, Taylor, Mora.
• DL: Numata, Carmona.

Phillies Roster Projections, 3/27

Let this sink in for a moment- tomorrow is the last Grapefruit League game, and on Friday the Phillies will be in Philadelphia.

Ok, enough of that. Yesterday I put out a set of roster predictions for every team that will break camp and start next week. Literally nothing has changed with the big league Phillies, so I will simply quote myself on the roster:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-RF, Mayberry-LF, Kratz-C.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, Valdes. In the running: Stutes
• Bench: Nix, Frandsen, Galvis, Lerud, Inciarte. In the running: Orr, Quintero.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• 40 man, inactive: Gillies, Collier, Ruf, Hernandez, Valle, Pettibone, Cloyd, Martin, Stutes, De Fratus, Rosenberg, Diekman, Robles, Savery.

There is nothing different today, and the total roster positions open is still probably down to about 3. You have the Stutes-Aumont battle, the Lerud-Quintero battle, and the Inciarte-Orr battle, while there is also the question of who plays left field on Opening Day.

The drama is shifting to the minors, where there are lots of battles still ongoing. The IronPigs won yesterday's game to break a losing streak, and they'll break camp on Saturday. On Tuesday they'll host the Reading Fightin' Phils in an exhibition game, then they open Thursday. They're also going to have a cool urinal game system. I digress though. Their rotation appears to be nearly set too, according to the front office, which along with their workout groups, pretty much sets this team as nearly done.

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Rosenberg, Morgan. In the running: Cochran, Bass.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Asche-3B, Joseph-C, Overbeck-DH,  Field-1B, Martinez-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Friend, Savery, Jimenez, Cochran. In the running: Bass, Hyatt.
• Bench: Orr, Quintero, Tolbert, Susdorf.
• DL: Bass, Blanco.

With the rotation fairly set, the question is how the Phillies will stash Bass, Cochran, and Hyatt. I think they'll DL one of Bass and Cochran, stick the other in the bullpen, and send Hyatt to Reading. Leandro Castro is also a big issue here, as he probably will get sent down too if the Pigs don't DL Tolbert. Hernandez played yesterday, so he will not get DL'ed. Andres Blanco is totally inactive, so expect him to be DL'ed.

AA:

• Rotation: Biddle, Buchanan, Garcia, Wright, Colvin. In the running: Hyatt.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, Hanzawa-SS, Welty-RF, Murphy-1B, Castro-LF, Valle-C/DH, Rupp-DH/C, Abreu-3B, Cartwright-2B.
• Bullpen: Simon, Robles, Rosin, Ramirez, Hyatt, Sosa, Ellis. In the running: Johnson.
• Bench: Suomi, Murphy, Mitchell, Hewitt. In the running: Henson.
• DL: Johnson, Henson, James.

Jiwan James is out until July, which makes the Castro move easier here. That staff has talent, which will be interesting to watch, and the bullpen should be fun at the back-end too. The offense will be the question mark. Colvin making this team does cause down the line changes too.

A- Clearwater:

• Rotation: Hollands, Garner, Stewart, Kleven, Milner.
• Line-Up: Hudson-CF, Altherr-RF, Alvarez-LF, Franco-3B/DH, Martinez-1B/DH/3B, Alonso-1B/3B/DH, Ludy-C, Villalobos-SS, Carver-2B.
• Bullpen: Arias, Shreve, O'Sullivan, Murray, Nesseth, Hernandez, Giles.
• Bench: Lavin, Roof, Stassi, Moore.
• DL: Dugan, Stumpo. 

There's a lot of talent in that line-up. I'm really intrigued about Dugan, though he's not going to start the season. This takes us to Lakewood, where I show no changes from yesterday, so:

• Rotation: Watson, Warner, Brady, Stefan, Martinez.
• Line-Up: Quinn-SS, Tocci-OF, Walding-3B, Serritella-1B, Pointer-OF, Greene-2B, Hill-C, Perkins-OF, Arthur-DH.
• Bullpen: Inch, Santos, Rojas, Broussard, Aizenstadt, Cooper, Oviedo.
• Bench: Quaranto, Olmo, Taylor, Mora.
• DL: Numata, Carmona.

With that, I think we're set for another day.

3/26 Phillies Roster Projections

Another day, another day closer to Opening Day. Today's the day we'll find out about Aaron Cook's future here, as he'll either make the team, be sent to AAA and get $100,000 in bonus money, or walk away from camp. I hope he stays, and don't think he will. If he goes the way of our old friend Yuniesky Betancourt, it's worth noting that Betancourt ended yesterday unemployed still.

Beyond that, the battles are very, very clear now. There's Cook-Valdes, which is likely to be settled today. If Cook wins, expect a 40 man move as well, so there's two losers. Then there's the Aumont-Stutes battle, which kind of goes hand in hand with the other. Then of course, you have the Quintero-Lerud battle, which is coming down to the finish, closer than expected. Finally there's the Inciarte-Orr-nameless pick-up battle for the last outfield spot.

With all of that said, here's the roster projection:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-RF, Mayberry-LF, Kratz-C.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, Valdes. In the running: Stutes, Cook.
• Bench: Nix, Frandsen, Galvis, Lerud, Inciarte. In the running: Orr, Quintero.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• 40 man, inactive: Gillies, Collier, Ruf, Hernandez, Valle, Pettibone, Cloyd, Martin, Stutes, De Fratus, Rosenberg, Diekman, Robles, Savery.

The big story here is that Lerud now beats out Quintero because he had a better spring. Cook narrowly misses and stays off the 40 man, since he'll get the bonus either way and it makes no sense to give him a spot.

This takes me down to AAA. The Morning Call's "Hog Blog" has their roster projection up. Phuture Phillies is up with the last set of workout groups. Here's my version of AAA, Lehigh Valley:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Cochran, Hyatt. In the running: Cook, Morgan, Bass.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Orr-2B, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Asche-3B, Joseph-C, Overbeck-1B, Fields-DH, Martinez-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, Savery, Jimenez, Friend.
• Bench: Castro, Quintero, Susdorf, Tolbert.
• DL: Hernandez. 

There's a lot of buzz that Morgan will make this team, but I'm in the doubting camp. He wasn't up in Reading that long last summer, and I don't see them rushing him right now. It's hard to tell who comes back ready to go between Martinez, Hernandez, and Tolbert, as all are shelved right now, but I doubt that even two of them go to the DL. 

Now AA:

• Rotation: Morgan, Biddle, Buchanan, Garcia, Wright. In the running: Colvin.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, Hanzawa-SS, Welty-RF, Murphy-1B, Valle-C/DH, Rupp-DH/C, Mitchell-LF, Abreu-3B, Cartwright-2B. 
• Bullpen: Simon, Robles, Ramirez, Ellis, Rosin, Sosa, Johnson.
• Bench: Suomi, Murphy, Henson, Hewitt.
• DL: James, Duran.

My sense here is that the offense is a little down compared to last year, but they have some talent. I'm putting Valle and Rupp in as regulars because I don't think they'll sit one regularly, although sometimes you'll see Hewitt or Suomi DH, and the other sit as a back-up catcher.

So then, A ball in Clearwater:

• Rotation: Colvin, Hollands, Garner, Stewart, Kleven.
• Line-Up: Hudson-CF, Altherr-RF, Alvarez-LF, Franco-3B, Martinez-DH/1B, Alonso-1B/DH, Ludy-C, Villalobos-SS, Carver-2B.
• Bullpen: Arias, Shreve, Milner, O'Sullivan, Murray, Nesseth, Hernandez.
• Bench: Moore, Roof, Stassi, Lavin,
• DL: Dugan, Stumpo.

Lot of talent here, I would hardly be shocked to see some of it in AA this season. The offense is pretty good, the staff has guys who are ready for the next step, and there's actually going to be some decent guys not starting everyday.

Finally, A ball in Lakewood:

• Rotation: Watson, Warner, Brady, Stefan, Martinez.
• Line-Up: Quinn-SS, Tocci-OF, Walding-3B, Serritella-1B, Pointer-OF, Greene-2B, Hill-C, Perkins-OF, Arthur-DH.
• Bullpen: Inch, Santos, Rojas, Broussard, Aizenstadt, Cooper, Oviedo.
• Bench: Quaranto, Olmo, Taylor, Mora.
• DL: Numata, Carmona.

That's all for today. The workout groups seem to be pretty telling.

Breaking Down the 2013 Phillies' Issues

He Better Have a Big Year.

It's one week until baseball season starts. On Friday, the Phillies will be back in town, and playing exhibition ball. For the first time since 2007, most Phillies fans don't feel like they have the best team in the National League East. For the first time since 2005, there are some who don't feel the team is all that good. There's a legitimate argument this could be the 1985 of this group (last year was the 1984 under this argument).

I don't buy that this team is some hopelessly old, broken, and declining team. I do think this team has at least one more run in them, and this could be a very good year. I take the stance that the 2012 Phillies were not a team who had diminished talent, but diminished health. I believe the one thing that holds back the 2013 Phillies from winning the NL East over the Nationals is that while the two teams are built rather similarly, the Nats will get their star players on the field for more games this year. Bottom line, the Phillies should be good, but they'll be as good as they are durable.

Coming out of the spring, the Phillies have a couple of major issues-

• Roy Halladay and a return to great performance by the starting pitching- It's fair to say that Roy Halladay's health is a big question mark. Either he better come back to normal performance, or the Phillies other four starters better be really on the ball this year.
• Who's the third outfielder?- Dom Brown and Ben Revere have had some solid spring trainings. Darin Ruf didn't go win the third spot though, and he's starting in AAA. Delmon Young's starting on the DL. The Phillies are left with John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix, and Ender Inciarte to try and fill out the third spot for now, and then it doesn't get much more clear later.
• Will the infield play and play well?- Ryan Howard and Chase Utley played half of last season, and didn't play it overly well. With that said, they did show some power in their half season (both were on pace to hit nearly 30 homers), and the team won a lot more games with them. If they both play more games (like 130 or more), and perform better (.800 plus OPS), this team can go further.
• Who catches, and how well?- Carlos Ruiz will be suspended, and apparently not on anything this year. Erik Kratz has to repeat last year. How close can the production get to last year's?
• Who pitches behind Papelbon in the bullpen?- The Phillies think the bullpen is going to be a strength this year. How well Mike Adams, Phillippe Aumont, Antonio Bastardo, and Chad Durbin do could be a very big clue for how well the team did. They lost 13 games they lead in the 8th last year. Cutting that down may have made them a playoff team.

How well these issues are answered basically will dictate how good the team is. I have a hard time seeing things all going perfect enough to have this team succeed in the same way as the 2011 team did. With that said, I do think they can win 90-95 games if things go way more well than not, and they can be a playoff team. If they can get to the post-season, why can't this season end magically?

Phillies Roster Projections 3/25

Well, one can't accuse Ruben Amaro of not doing anything. The Phillies are essentially down to just one decision. Here's the news:

• The Phillies have cut Yuniesky Betancourt. No shock there. There just wasn't 40 man room to add him. Besides, Galvis played well enough this spring that using an option on him would be stupid.
• Virtual lock to make Reading's rotation, and one of the most impressive pitchers (numbers wise) in the organization up until the middle of last year, Julio Rodriguez was traded. This is a surprise to me. The Phillies picked up outfielder Ronnie Welty from Baltimore's system in the deal, who hit 13 homers over 213 at-bats in AA or lower.
• Doc didn't pitch good yesterday, and Amaro was quiet about it afterwards. I'm concerned about him.

In a spring that has been better than not, about the only two things that haven't been "on schedule" were Ruf and Halladay. Otherwise, you have to be happy overall. 

The last decision remaining is on Aaron Cook really. I prefer they keep him, however they need to do it. I expect they won't.

So here's my roster projection:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan.
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, Young-3B, Brown-RF, Mayberry-LF,  Kratz-C.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst, Valdes. In the running: Cook, Stutes.
• Bench: Frandsen, Galvis, Nix, Inciarte, Quintero.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.
• 40 Man, Inactive: Hernandez, Valle, Collier, Gillies, Ruf, Pettibone, Martin, Cloyd, Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, Robles, Savery.

I think things are pretty well set. Cook and Stutes are still in camp, and therefore in competition, but the jobs are settled for the most part. With Betancourt gone, I think Inciarte's a safe bet to start the year on the team, barring a move still to come in the next week. 

So with that, the Iron Pigs and Reading could be effected by the Rodriguez trade, not only because his spot in Reading's rotation is open, but also because Willey is likely to be assigned to AA. My guess is that he doesn't change the Iron Pigs:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Cochran, Bass. In the running: Cook, Morgan.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Joseph-C, Fields-3B, Overbeck-1B, Blanco-SS, Orr-2B, Mitchell-DH.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, Robles, Savery, Jimenez.
• Bench: Lerud, Martinez, Susdorf, Tolbert.
• DL: Hernandez.

So a couple things here. I really, really wouldn't mind seeing the Phillies start Morgan out here, but I doubt it, especially after the trade. He'll start in AA I think, then make the move up. I'm going to swap in Tolbert due to Hernandez injury.

AA:

• Rotation: Morgan, Hyatt, Biddle, Buchanan, Wright. In the running: Colvin, Hollands, Garner.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, Castro-LF, Asche-3B, Murphy-1B, Willey-RF, Valle-C, Hewitt-DH, Murphy-2B, Hanzawa-SS.
• Bullpen: Friend, Simon, Ramirez, Hollands, Lafferty, Shreve, Ellis.
• Bench: Suomi, Abreu, Alvarez, Gallagher.
• DL: James.

Alonso comes up at least while James is out. I put Wright in for now, edging out the other options for the fifth spot in the rotation. The first three in the bullpen could be interchangeable with Jimenez in AAA.

A: 

• Rotation: Colvin, Garner, Garcia, Stewart, Kleven.
• Line-Up: Altherr-RF, Hudson-CF, Franco-3B, Martinez-1B, Rupp-C, Alonso-DH, Lavin-LF, Cartwright-2B, Duran-SS.
• Bullpen: Sosa, Rosin, O'Sullivan, Whatcott, Nerris, Johnson, Murray.
• Bench: Hill, Serritella, Perkins, Stassi.
• DL: Dugan, Pointer.

Honestly, this is a real guess at  some spots. It's hard to predict this team without knowing the first two. 

3/23 Phillies Roster Notes

Frank Klose of Philliedelphia created this goodie.

Well, this is getting easier to figure out, even if it doesn't make much sense.

• Ruf got optioned, as did Jermaine Mitchell. Rodrigo Lopez got released.
• The Phillies are looking to make moves.

So with that stuff all known, here's the latest roster projection:

• Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan. 
• Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, M. Young-3B, Brown-LF, Mayberry-RF, Kratz-C.
• Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst, Valdes. In the running: Cook.
• Bench: Nix, Frandsen, Inciarte, Galvis, Quintero. In the running: Betancourt.
• DL: D. Young.
• Restricted: Ruiz.

Ruf and Mitchell being optioned made this a little easier. We just don't know yet what happens with Cook and Betancourt. It also makes the AAA roster easier:

• Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Cochran, Bass. In the running: Cook.
• Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, J. Mitchell-RF, Ruf-LF, Joseph-C, Fields-1B, Overbeck-1B/DH, Orr-3B, Blanco-SS.
• Bullpen: Stutes, De Fratus, Diekman, Robles, Rosenberg, Savery, Jimenez.
• Bench: Lerud, Martinez, D. Mitchell, Susdorf.

The big change here is Rodrigo being out. This will make it easier to promote Adam Morgan in a couple of months. Also, I'm dropping Hanzawa back down for now.

So AA:

• Rotation: Morgan, Rodriguez, Hyatt, Biddle, Buchanan. In the running: Wright, Colvin, Hollands.
• Line-Up: Collier-CF, James-RF, Asche-3B, Murphy-1B, Castro-LF, Valle-C, Hewitt-DH, Murphy-2B, Hanzawa-SS.
• Bullpen: Friend, Simon, Ramirez, Hollands, Lafferty, Shreve, Whatcott.
• Bench: Suomi, Abreu, Tolbert, Alvarez.

And High-A:

• Rotation: Wright, Colvin, Garner, Stewart, Garcia.
• Line-Up: Altherr-RF, Hudson-CF, Dugan-LF, Franco-3B, Martinez-1B, Rupp-C, Alonso-DH, Cartwright-2B, Duran-SS.
• Bullpen: Sosa, O'Sullivan, Nerris, Rosin, Johnson, Murray, Knigge.
• Bench: Hill, Serritella, Gallagher, Lavin.

That's all I have for now. I'm sure the minors will still surprise me. The big leagues look close to set.