The internets have been rife with talk about the Phillies organization's recent decision to "give up on the 2012 season." Many "Phillies fans" seem rather eager to bury the team, and to proceed to dance on their metaphorical graves. But has the Phillies' organization really "given up?" Let's look at the Phillies' recent personnel-related decisions, which have prompted many to arrive at the "white flag" conclusion.
The Phillies trade DH/PH Jim Thome to the Baltimore Orioles, in exchange for minor leaguers Kyle Simon and Gabriel Lino.
In the recent stretch of interleague play, Thome showed he still has a little bit left in his bat. Unfortunately, as he is no longer able to play the field, a National League team is not able to provide the future Hall of Famer with regular at-bats. The Phillies are better off utilizing the roster spot for a more versatile player, and Thome is better off (finishing?) his career in the AL, where he can still contribute on a regular basis. This move wasn't about the Phillies "giving up", or about the Phillies acquiring top prospects for the veteran DH. (Spoiler Alert: They didn't.) This move was about accommodating one of MLB Greats. The Phillies "did Thome a solid."
Chad Qualls is traded to the New York Yankees, for cash considerations (or a player to be named later).
The Phillies had designated the erratic northpaw for assignment, and were hopeful that they could dump the remainder of his contract. The Phillies didn't believe the veteran was part of their immediate future (or their not-immediate future, as he has a one-year contract), so they cut ties with him. Qualls has struggled mightily in 2012, and the Phillies (believe they) have better options. Qualls would likely have been jettisoned for performance reasons, even if the Phillies had been at the top of the standings.
The Phillies are "gauging trade interest in Cole Hamels."
First, let's talk semantics for a moment. "Gauging trade interest" and "putting a player on the trading block" are two different things entirely, though many in the Phillies' Blogosphere/Twitterverse seem to believe they are one and the same. Teams regularly attempt to determine how other organizations value their players. It doesn't necessarily mean they are actively trying to trades them. (Well, unless they determine that another organization really overvalues one of their players.)
Cole Hamels' Phillies' career is reaching a potential turning point. The ace southpaw is eligible to become a free agent at the end of the season, unless he reaches a prior agreement with the Phillies. We do not currently have enough information to know if the Phillies have been "lowballing Hamels" with their contract offer(s), if any, or if "Hamels only cares about maximizing the value of his next contract."
We do know that if the Phillies' organization determines that Hamels is unlikely to come to an agreement, they have a difficult decision to make. They can keep Hamels for the remainder of the season (and postseason?), and lose him for draft picks. Or, they can trade him this month, theoretically acquiring more value. The final decision doesn't need to be made for several weeks, but General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. needs to start gathering potential trade information now. (Plus, leaking the "gauging of trade interest" to the press may well provide the Hamels Camp with a little more urgency to come to terms with the Phillies, if that is what Hamels really wants.)
The first half of the 2012 season has not gone well for the Phillies. Even with an extra playoff spot available this season, the Phillies will likely need to play better than .620 ball, in order to qualify for the postseason. However, the 2012 Phillies currently boast an elite starting rotation, a slightly-above-average offense, and have elite starter Roy Halladay poised to return soon. (Not to mention good-against-RHP 1B Ryan Howard, who appears even closer to a return than Halladay.) The 2012 Phillies have the capacity to play above .620 ball, especially in only a half-season.
If the Phillies don't achieve good results in the next few weeks, it might very well be in the organization's best interests to trade pending free agents Hamels and/or Shane Victorino. But we are not there yet, and the Phillies haven't actually done anything that signals this intention. All they have done, at least so far, is their due diligence.
If you agree with the statement made in the title, you are excused from reading the remainder of this post. This post really shouldn't even be necessary, just like posts themed "Wilson Valdez Is Not Good. At All.", or "Offering Kyle Kendrick Arbitration: Not What You Would Call "Smart" should not have been needed. Alas, the majority of those inhabiting the Phillies' Twitterverse and Blogosphere do not currently appear to be on the correct page, especially when it comes to the 2012 Phillies' top starting pitcher. Let's look at a few of the false Lee narratives that are pervading the internets:
"Lee has ZERO WINS, he sucks, what's more important than wins? Nothing!"
It's 2012. Don't we know better than to care about "pitcher wins" by now? Not yet, apparently. The problem with the "pitcher wins" stat is that it collects piles of factors outside of a pitcher's control, and credits (or discredits) the pitcher for them. A pitcher could be hung with a loss, after allowing one run in nine innings, or pick up a win for a five-inning, seven-run effort. Poor defense? Poor bullpen? Strategically-inept manager? Slightly above average offense? All four of these factors are working against Lee, and there's nothing he can do about it. To discredit his performances, due to things Lee has absolutely no control over, just doesn't make any logical sense.
"Lee is not a "clutch" pitcher. He choked in Game 2 (of the 2011 NLDS v. St. Louis)."
Often, when fans choose to ignore statistical evidence, they repeat the refrain, "I watch the games." It appears that many who watched this particular game didn't pay a lot of attention. Lee did well in the areas that were under his control, particularly in striking out nine Cardinals, while walking only a pair, in his six-inning outing. Lee's xFIP for that particular game: an impressive 2.28.
It was the areas outside of Lee's control, however, that proved to be problematic. The Phillies' offense was held scoreless during the final seven innings. The poor range of the (majority of) the defenders behind Cliff Lee did not do the southpaw any favors. Mostly, though, Lee was a victim of bad batted-ball luck. Bloops, weak grounders, the Cardinals' bats just happened to find holes on this particular day. A pitcher with neutral luck will typically find 29-30% of batted balls in play falling for hits. On this day, 60% of the batted balls in play allowed by Lee became hits. It was an unbelievable unlucky happenstance, during another strong start by Lee. This fact should have been readily apparent to anyone who was "watching the game."
"Lee is not worth his contract. He has been terrible this season."
How has Lee done this season, in areas that are under his control? Lee's K/9 is 8.97, which ranks him 15th among all qualified MLB pitchers. Lee's BB/9 of 1.91 ranks him 15th among all qualified MLB pitchers. In K/BB, which is more important than either K/9 or BB/9, Lee is ranked 4th in MLB (4.68). (Note: Joe Blanton, a good pitcher who is not actually fat, is ranked 2nd in MLB, with a K/BB of 5.93.)
Just as in Game 2 of 2011's NLDS, Lee has been punished by BABIP. For the season, he has a BABIP of .333, meaning 33.3% of the batted balls in play have fallen for hits. In the month of June, his BABIP was an incredibly unfortunate 40.6%. With luck that atrocious, it is difficult to produce good results.
However, when you bundle up the stats that Lee has control over, and replace the ones he cannot control with league average figures, Lee sports an impressive 3.05 xFIP. This ERA predictor ranks Lee 4th among qualified MLB pitchers. Another ERA predictor, SIERA, ranks Lee 5th in MLB (3.11).
Being among MLB's Top 5 pitchers certainly qualifies as elite, and worthy of a hefty contract, particularly on the free agent market. Lee is still a great pitcher, and if his luck regresses to the mean, as it typically does, we can expect more favorable results in the future.
Three years ago to this day, Philadelphia lost the greatest voice in the world; Hall of Fame broadcaster Harry Kalas. The voice of the Phillies, the voice of our summers. The voice of Veterans Stadium and Citizens Bank Park. The voice of the 2008 World Series Champions. There is no chance that anyone could ever forget Harry calling Brad Lidge's perfect 48 for 48 saves as he struck out Eric Hinske to win the series for the Phillies, making them World (expletive) Champions.
Not only was it the World Series call that made him unforgettable, but of course all of the memorable moments in Phillies history, such as Mike Schmidt's five hundredth homerun, Mitch Williams closing out games in 1993 and the 1993 World Series, Jim Thome’s four hundredth home run , and many more fond memories (and not so fond memories) which led up to the 2008 World Series.
You will never forget where you were when you found out that Harry Kalas had passed away in Washington, D.C. during a Nationals series. From MLB.com beat writer Todd Zolecki's The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly:
"Everyone was heartbroken, and everyone cried. It was without a doubt the saddest day in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies. It was agonizingly painful to watch the Phillies and Nationals share a moment of silence on that day, and just as painful to see Harry's casket being carried onto the field and into the hurse just days later, by Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, and the rest of the Phillies. The Phillies wore an HK patch over their hearts for the remainder of the season, and fans all over the area bought shirts with the patch on it, too. Since that day, Harry's rendition of Frank Sinatra's "High Hopes" has been played at the end of every ball game at Citizen's Bank Park."
His voice will forever be the soundtrack of the Phillies. He was there for it all for 38 years, even when the Fightins fought through tough battles until 2007, when they made it to the postseason for the first time since 1993. More recently, he was there in spirit when the Phillies won the Division Series and Championship Series in 2009, and he was there in spirit when the players came out of the clubhouse (cigars in mouth and champagne in hand) and gave Harry's memorial banner in left field a nice round of high fives, and a few showers of beer and champagne. The fans wanted the Phillies to win it all in 2009 for Harry, but the Yankees had other plans for the Phils. That did not mean that they wouldn't stop fighting for the trophy in 2010 and years to come.
Despite the 2011 season ending sooner than expected, we all know that Harry Kalas was proud of this team. Harry would have loved to see these Phillies winning 102 regular season games. He would have without a doubt loved the starting rotation, the newly acquired right fielder Hunter Pence, and he would have been proud of seeing his Phillies make it to the postseason for the fifth straight year. The 2012 season will be another victorious one, because the Phillies have it all including the greatest voice in their heads to remind them everyday that they should have high hopes. These games will forever more be for you, Harry. Philadelphia loves you, the players love you, and we here at Philliedelphia love you. Rest in peace.
From Philliedelphia blogger Mike Frohwirth:
It seems like I spent almost my entire life listening to Harry call Phillies games. As a youngster, I listened to him on WCAU 1210 from my radio. Later, I was fortunate enough to be able to watch him broadcast games on cable, MLB.TV, and MLB Extra Innings. He was the voice of my childhood. He was the constant in my life as a Phillies fan.
I'm still shocked that he is gone. I'm still saddened that I will never hear him call a Phillies game again. I'm disappointed that he didn't get to visit the White House with the WFC. I'm frustrated that we will never be able to celebrate Harry's memorable career with him, in a massive retirement ceremony at CBP.
But I feel privileged to have been able to hear him on thousands of Phillies broadcasts. I feel honored to have heard him voice so many great moments in Phillies history. Mike Schmidt's 500th home run. The great teams of the 70s. 1983. 1993. I'm glad that he got to enjoy the 1980 and 2008 World Championship seasons. I'm pleased that he was able to take part in the WFC Parade, and the WFC Ring Ceremony. And I'm happy that he is reunited with Whitey now.
Thanks for everything, Harry. You are the man.
From Philliedelphia blogger Stephen Gallo:
When I think of Phillies baseball, I think of Harry Kalas.
I was 12 years old when my parents split up, and was moving back to Philadelphia with my mother. I'd be starting high school that September. That summer, I didn’t know anybody. I hadn’t lived in Philly for years, so I had lost contact with everyone I knew when I lived there before (of course, this was before the days of Facebook, Twitter, or even AIM). I had no friends, but I had Phillies baseball and Harry Kalas as their voice to pass the time.
Of course I was young and jobless, so the best part of every day was watching the Phillies and teaching myself how to keep a baseball score book. That was the summer I fell in love with baseball, more specifically the Phillies and their golden voiced announcer, Harry Kalas.
The way Harry told the story of each game was magical. Even back then, when our Phillies were dreadful, he made watching every game an event, and I didn’t want to miss a single one. He had charisma and a love for the game of baseball which I had never heard before. His calls, whether for a first inning homerun or for a game ending double play, always shot chills straight through me. He had a gift. I’ll never forget how I felt when I heard of Harry’s passing. I felt like I had lost a close friend.
Harry’s memory lives on. His famous homerun call, as well as his favorite song “High Hopes” are still staples at the ballpark for every game. He is responsible for so many Phillies fans’ love of the game, including this one.
Thank you, Harry.
"This is to the Philadelphia fan. To laud your passion as best I can. Your loyalty is unsurpassed. Be the Fightins in first or last. We come to the park each day, looking forward to another fray. Because we know you’ll be there, we know you really care. You give the opposing pitcher fits because as one loyalist shouts, everybody hits. To be sure in Philly, there might be some boos. Because you passionate fans, like the manager, hate to lose. Your reaction to the action on the field that you impart, spurs as broadcasters to call the game with enthusiasm and heart. We feel your passion through and through. Philadelphia fans, I love you."
From Philliedelphia blogger Frank Klose:
I was seven years old when I became a baseball fan, thanks to the lure of baseball cards and playing catch with the two boys next door. I still distinctly remember the first Harry Kalas call that resonated with me:
"Long drive, left-center field! Home run, Chris James!"
That call has stuck in my head since. Looking it up, that game was July 17, 1988. I am not sure I would even remember Chris James for any other reason than his being the first home run call I ever heard from Harry Kalas.
I was fortunate enough to meet Harry in September 2007 at RFK Stadium. Apparently, the press box food was as lousy as the stadium itself, and all the broadcasters came out to eat something in one concession area available to fans. As Sarge ventured over to Cluck-U Chicken, Harry stepped towards the balcony area overlooking D.C. to have a cigarette, and I followed, getting the chance to shake his hand and pose for a picture.
On Easter Sunday, 2009, as my mother-in-law gave us our Easter baskets, she asked me about Harry Kalas.
"I don't think he looks too good," I told her.
The next day I stepped onto the treadmill to attempt to burn off the previous day's Cadbury Creme Eggs and put my television on, and my fears were realized: Harry was gone.
We all lost a loving grandfather that day: one who kept us happy and optimistic when things were not going so well; who experienced the good and the bad alongside us through our life's journey. But we could not help but smile, for we knew he finally got to call a World Series victory just months before. Mission accomplished.
From Philliedelphia photographer and blogger Lindsey Crew:
My whole life has been centered on baseball. I can't remember a single time when it wasn't there. I consider myself quite lucky to be born into a family passionate about this game. As a toddler my mom would turn on the Phillies broadcast on the radio for me to fall asleep to. It got to the point that I couldn't sleep well without it.
I fell asleep to Harry and company every single summer night. Once I began competitively playing softball I started to take in the meaning of what Harry said. He knew so much about the game and really taught me to respect it. Harry loved baseball, he loved the Phillies and he loved us. My passion grew from listening to his stories, his enthusiasm in calling the games and from taking his words to heart. I always like to say that my father taught me how to play the game but Harry Kalas taught me how to love it.
The day Harry died I didn't know what to do with myself. I tried imaging Phillies baseball without his voice and it just seemed too foreign of a concept for me to grasp. Three years later and I still can't think of Harry without tearing up. I miss him every single day. When I have kids I'll be telling them about this era of Phillies baseball with a huge emphasis on Harry and what he meant to the fans and the entire organization.
Harry, I hope you and Whitey are causing a ruckus up there in heaven and watching over this team. We love and miss you so very much.
From Philliedelphia blogger Erik Seybold:
Growing up as a kid with parents who lived during the 70's-90's, some of the best years of Phillies' baseball, you can say it gave me advantages in life. I grew up surrounded by the same people who got smashed after the Phillies won the World Series. The same people who rooted for Lefty, Bull, The Dude, Dutch, Von Hayes, Steve Jeltz, Mike Schmidt, Kruker, Mickey Morandini, and more Phillies that played in that era. What kid in this area, during that time period, didn't grow up listening to Harry Kalas on the TV and the radio? I guess you can say it was a given that I, a young kid, was able to hear the voice of Harry Kalas calling the strike outs, home runs, wins and losses in the late 90's and early 2000's. Harry Kalas was not just a voice to me, he was also a comforting figure when my team was down and had no efforts of emerging victorious.
Before the Phillies started winning again in 2007-present, I would watch and listen to every game I could just to hear how the Phillies were doing. Whether they were down 10-0 in the 9th inning, or if they were squeezing by the opponent 2-1 in the 9th inning, Harry Kalas would let me know.
When Harry Kalas died three years, ago I didn't know what to feel. At first I felt like it was just a gaffe on the media's part. Harry Kalas dead? No way, he just called Matt Stairs' home run and called the Phillies last game in Colorado, how can he be dead? He seemed perfectly fine. After the shock hit me, I didn't cry, I didn't mourn, I didn't know what to do.
I've never really experienced death in my life, my Grandparents are alive and the only ones who have passed did so when I was an infant. Harry's passing wasn't like hearing it in the news, it was like seeing it in real life. I shed a tear or two the same day when the Phillies played the Nationals and Shane Victorino pointed to the sky, to Harry. But nothing hit me harder than his funeral a couple days later. That was the worst thing I've ever seen on TV. My parents were sulking in the living room and seeing each Phillie touch that casket and tears streaming down their faces, provoked tears in my eyes. I cried like a baby.
Harry Kalas was the voice of the Phillies, the voice of the fans, and the voice of the community. Harry Kalas affected each and every one of us in some sort of way. In my case, Harry spread the love and passion of baseball through the TV and radio signals straight to me. I love the game of baseball more than anything in the world, I'll die before I switch teams and I'm proud to be a fan, a fan that loved Harry Kalas, a fan that was loved back.
We love you, Harry. RIP.
From Philliedelphia photographer and blogger Steve Trapani:
For someone who didn't grow up in Philadelphia or the area, I didn't have the opportunity to grow up hearing Harry Kalas' voice. I didn't have the joy of hearing his great "Outta Here" home run calls or his raspy voice say the words "Michael Jack Schmidt". However, I did know who Harry Kalas was, How could I not. He was a Sports icon not just in Philadelphia but across the country. By the time I was 15 and starting paying more attention to the Phillies and baseball in general, I would soon learn more and more about the man behind the mic, and just how beloved he truly was by the city of Philadelphia.
I think back to the first Phillies game I attended in Philadelphia. It was opening day 2002, I was already 23 years old and having lived in a city without baseball or a baseball voice all my life (Washington DC) I knew i was venturing into something special. Being at the Vet on that Sunny April day was like a dream come true. Seeing Harry Kalas on the field before the game and hearing the crowd react to his every word was heart pounding, That is when I first realized just how special this man was to the Phillies and the City.
April 13th 2009 season was just getting underway when the Phillies came to Washington for their home opener. I got to the stadium that day at about noon for the afternoon game. I was in the outfield seats watching BP when I heard someone say "Harry Kalas just died" I stopped paying attention to the Phillies pitchers on the field shagging fly balls and turned to the man in shock and said "what"? He repeated himself "Harry Kalas is dead".
I could not believe my ears. I then grabbed my cell phone and checked online to see the news was in fact true. He had been in the Visitors broadcast booth at Nationals Park, just an hour before. As word spread around the stadium you could see the Phillies fans in attendance with a shock and sad look on their face. I wondered if they would play the game, I wondered if the team knew, I wondered how the team would react to the lose of their voice?
Well the game went on, In the pre-game ceremony's the Nationals paid tribute to Harry with a moment of silence. Very touching since it was so recent and ever so fresh in the minds of everyone in the stadium. People made signs on the back of pizza boxes that they just bought at the park. "RIP Harry" read most of them. At the end of the day the Phillies would go on to win that game and I know beyond doubt they did it for Harry.
From Philliedelphia blogger Christina Angelos:
It's hard to believe, but, three years ago, Philadelphia sports fans lost our "Voice."
I got to meet Harry Kalas once in 2005, only 16 years old. When I was leaving the ballpark one day, I had my opportunity to say hello and talk baseball while he was walking to his car. I was starstruck a little. It was probably the most random time I ever met a person who is related to baseball, even if it was 5 minutes. I think I got to know him and how much he really loved the city of Philadelphia. We got to talk about who won the game, who scored the runs... never a dull moment of being able to talk about baseball. Before he stepped into his car, he told me "always remember baseball is more of a mystery."
And that same teenager who is now 23 years old, can still admit that she gets as choked up now thinking about that moment as she did when it first happened.
For all of the deserving and astounding accomplishments Harry Kalas received during his time as an announcer, his greatest feat is that of a human being that so loved his city, the fans, and his team.
And when the impossible happened, when a World Series title run erupted in front of his eyes, his town couldn't be totally sure this mind-warping event had actually happened until the great Harry Kalas' golden voice exploded with the words: "The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 world champions of baseball."
Cheers Harry. We will never forget you and thank you for being such an incredible part of our lives.
From Philliedelphia blogger Kevin Durso:
He was the voice on my TV that rose with excitement every time the Phillies hit a home run. The greater the stakes, the greater the excitement. “Outta here!” was just as much a part of Philadelphia as it was the Phillies broadcasts.
For me, an aspiring sport writer, Harry Kalas was a hero and a role model. I never heard someone call a game with such grace and majesty in his voice. I never heard someone sound so devoted to the team he was calling. I learned early on from watching games that Harry was calling that there was only one way to watch Phillies baseball. It had to involve Harry and it had to be with the same passion he brought to each broadcast.
In the early Phillies seasons of my life, that was easier said than done. The Phillies weren’t a playoff team then, so while Harry went game by game treating every one as if the Phillies were on their way to winning the pennant, fans knew what the standings said.
That’s what makes his final two seasons of calling baseball so special. Harry’s voice was the first thing I heard the moment the Phillies won the World Series in 2008. I didn’t watch the final out live. I lived it in my backyard with Harry’s voice bellowing with euphoria over the radio. There was simply nothing better. Two days later, at the parade, I saw Harry host the new World Champions in their celebration. When Harry ever said anything about the fans, like he did on this day, it hit you personally. You and everyone around you felt personally touched by his words, like a little part of that was meant especially for you.
That’s what I always loved about Harry. And to me, Harry is now part of the baseball experience at Citizens Bank Park every game. When you look at that statue, you almost want to offer Harry a greeting, as if he was still here. On every home run, at least one fan is screaming that “that ball’s outta here!” At the end of every game, some fans just can’t leave the ballpark until they sing “High Hopes.”
Three years ago, when Harry passed so unexpectedly, it was a personal loss. I’ll be honest, I had not watched the Phillies with the same devotion I do now for my entire life. Several summers came and went without me ever really knowing what was going on in the world of the Phillies. But I always knew who Harry Kalas was. I always wanted to be like him in some way and I still do. I want to find that love for a team through my own work.
Now that I’m in college chasing that dream, I do slightly understand it. Part of the reason I love it so much is because of Harry Kalas and his lessons on loving what you do.
I still think of Harry every game. I await the start of every game with the hopes of saying “outta here!” as many times as possible and ending the night with a rousing rendition of “High Hopes.” That’s simply what Harry did and what Harry still does, even three years since his untimely death. He keeps making baseball great for people in Philadelphia and his legend grows with every game.
We leave you with Harry's rendition of "High Hopes," and one of my favorite quotes from him.
“In between the exuberance of youth and the serenity of the Golden Years lies a lifetime of memories. For a baseball fan, a million images here mark the passage of time. Whether it’s witnessing part of the game’s history, or simply making contact with a favorite player, the image is indelible. Who can forget that first look at a big league ballpark? The colors, the sounds, the smells. These are as lasting as the day they first happened. We choose our favorite players by the most subjective means: we like his stance in the batter’s box, or the way he wears his cap. His smile. Or maybe we just like his name.”
Even without All-Stars Chase Utley and Ryan Howard available, the Phillies are still a formidable team, and a playoff contender. Their starting rotation may very well be the best in the National League. Their bullpen is more than serviceable, their defense is above average, and Messrs. Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence are two excellent offensive weapons.
What's missing from previous seasons is a large margin for error. The team was once strong enough to overcome Manager Charlie Manuel's "eccentricities" (See also, lack of strategic ability.), just as Ron Washington's Texas Rangers are currently able to frequently overcome their manager's shortcomings. The 2012 Philadelphia Phillies need a manager who is a force for good, or at least a force for neutrality. So far, Manuel's inability to adhere to the basic tenets of baseball management have proven quite damaging to the Phillies' winning percentage. It is, obviously, very early in the season, but if Manuel continues to repeat his mistakes of the season's first three games, the Phillies may be hard-pressed to make the playoffs.
Maximizing run expectancy
Construct an effective lineup. Shane Victorino might be the best hitter in the Phillies' lineup. At worst, he is the second best hitter in the lineup. It is in the Phillies' best offensive interests to provide Victorino with as many plate appearances as possible. Batting Victorino in the 5th spot does not achieve this.
Conversely, Juan Pierre is not a good offensive player. His .293 wOBA in 2011 (MLB average: .317) is a testament to his inability to help a team at the plate. Pierre's defense in left field (Note: LF is his only position, as he lacks the arm for RF, and it is best to avoid the circuitous routes he utilizes as a CF. Also note that he is not particularly adept in LF.) is below average. If you illogically choose to put Juan Pierre in your starting lineup, he should at least be positioned near the end of the batting order, so as to minimize the adverse effects his bat has on an offense.
When to sacrifice bunt, and when not to sacrifice bunt? This is actually a pretty easy to answer, as we have more than a century's worth of data with which to examine the bunt/not bunt question. Basically, sacrifice bunting is viable in the bottom of the ninth inning (or the bottom of a later inning), when a single run scored wins the game. Sacrifice bunting with a pitcher, or a position player with a pitcher's batting ability (ex. Freddy Galvis, Michael Martinez), may not be the worst move. Sacrifice bunting with an average, or better, position player only serves to reduce the expected number of runs scored. Sacrifice bunting with one of your best hitters (Victorino, Jimmy Rollins), or sacrifice bunting a runner from second-to-third with no outs (runner would likely score from second on a single), these maneuvers are just highly illogical. See here for more on the "when to sacrifice bunt" question.
Minimizing your opponent's run expectancy
Charlie Manuel has an inherent advantage in this area, namely the Phillies' outstanding starting rotation. Most of the work Manuel has to do in this area is to effectively manage his bullpen. Unfortunately, he has not done so, and the poor performance of the offense has made his relief mistakes all the more glaring.
Use your best relievers in the highest leverage situations. There is no question that Jonathan Papelbon is one of the best relievers in MLB. His statistics have been consistently outstanding. When the Phillies need an out late in a game, Papelbon is their best-equipped option to get that out. Despite this obvious fact, Manuel allowed the Pirates to win two games in walk-off fashion this weekend, as Papelbon observed from the bullpen. It's one thing to lose with your best players, but losing while your best players are not utilized, that's just unconscionable.
Kyle Kendrick is not a very good MLB pitcher. His inability to strike out opposing batters (4.63 K/9 in 2011) causes him to rely on the vagaries of fate, on luck with batted balls, for success. Some seasons he is lucky (2011: .261 BABIP, 3.22 ERA), in other seasons he only has neutral luck (2009: .305 BABIP, 5.49 ERA). This reliance on good fortune means Kendrick is miscast as a high-leverage short reliever. With the bullpen's current construction, Kendrick's best role is long relief, as he has the ability to pitch multiple innings (though not particularly well, unless the odds are in his favor). Despite these facts, Manuel has used Kendrick in high leverage short relief in the past two games.
Joe Savery does not really belong in a major league bullpen, at least at this point in time. He will likely be returned to AAA when Jose Contreras is ready to return to MLB. Savery is in MLB right now for pretty much one reason: his left-handedness. Savery is not someone you want pitching in high leverage short relief right now, but with a single left-handed bat to retire, particularly in the 6th or 7th inning, Savery should be under consideration to LOOGY the Phillies out of a troublesome situation. Savery has not pitched yet this season. If Manuel is not confident enough to use Savery for a single left-handed batter, he should be replaced with a pitcher that Manuel will use, or with an additional position player (to provide the bench with more PR/PH flexibility).
Put your players in a position to succeed.
Laynce Nix has not been called upon to sacrifice bunt often in his career. Asking Nix to sacrifice in a crucial situation is not a prudent decision, yet Manuel asked Nix to do so in Sunday's game. If Manuel is certain that sacrifice bunting is the best strategy (Note: It most certainly was not.), he should have replace Nix with a player more adept at sacrificing. Starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay, who sacrifice frequently, and were not available to pitch, were much better sacrifice bunt options. (Note: If the designated sacrificer reaches base, the player who would be replacing Nix in the field should enter the game as a pinch-runner. Don't need Hamels/Halladay running the bases, and risking injury.)
In Sunday's game, the Pirates had the game-winning run on third base, with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning, and Andrew McCutchen scheduled to bat. It appeared to be an ideal situation for ace reliever Jonathan Papelbon to enter the game. Charlie Manuel chose to keep reliever David Herndon in the game, which would have been defensible had Manuel acted logically. With first base open, Manuel could have intentionally walked the Pirates' best hitter, and had Herndon face an average hitter, Neil Walker, with a force available at second base. Manuel could also have walked both McCutchen and Walker, putting a force at any base, and allowing Herndon to face a below average pinch-hitter. It was irrelevant whether there were runners on first or second, as the runner on third would end the game (upon scoring). Manuel directed Herndon to pitch to McCutchen, who ended the game with a walk-off hit.
Freddy Galvis is an outstanding defensive player. He is among the best the Phillies have in the field. However, his bat is just not ready for MLB. (As he is only 22, his bat almost shouldn't be expected to be ready for MLB.) Galvis was an average hitter in AA in 2011 (.326 wOBA), but even with outstanding BABIP luck in AAA (.350 BABIP), he was still a below average hitter at the AAA level (.301 wOBA). It would likely be in Galvis' best interests to be playing every day at the AAA level, but the Phillies have chosen to promote him to MLB, in Chase Utley's absence. It is incumbent upon Manuel to maximize the benefits of Galvis' defensive prowess, while working to minimize the detriments of Galvis' weak bat. Manuel can do this by being willing to pinch-hit for Galvis in the latter innings, in games in which Galvis starts, and the Phils need more offense. Or Manuel could start a lesser defensive option at 2B (Pete Orr, Placido Polanco (with Ty Wigginton at 3B), or Ty Wigginton at 2B), and use Galvis as a defensive substitution later in the game (perhaps even in the middle innings). Manuel has chosen to use Galvis at 2B in all situations, and his weak bat has hurt the Phillies more than his strong glove has helped them.
It is still very early in the season, and maybe Charlie Manuel will learn from his strategic errors. Much more likely than Manuel actually learning from his mistakes is the possibility that the Phillies' team will be strong enough to overcome them. But, in 2012, Manuel's managing could be the difference between a comfortable postseason berth, a spot in the crapshoot of a one-game Wild Card playoff game, or a season without baseball playoff action in Philadelphia.
Phillies' General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has no reason to reveal his personnel plans and valuations to the media. It would be quite disadvantageous for the Phillies' organization if opposing franchises had such knowledge at their disposal. Amaro's best course of action is to mix truth and fiction, when divulging information publicly. Earlier this offseason, when the claim that the Phillies do not utilize sabermetric statistics was made, that appeared more likely fiction, than truth.
The much more recent announcement that the Phillies are content to enter the 2012 regular season with 22-year-old shortstop Freddy Galvis as their starting second baseman, appears likely to be another work of fiction. Galvis is definitely a promising prospect, but he is very far from a finished product. Talk of Galvis starting the season in the Phillies' lineup seems more an attempt by Amaro to retain leverage in trade negotiations, than a logical course of action.
Galvis is an incredible defensive player. He would, immediately, become the best defender on the Phillies' roster, and among the best defensive players in MLB. On the basepaths, Galvis is fine- not great, but more than satisfactory. At the plate, however, Galvis is still sorely lacking.
In 2011, Galvis had 126 plate appearances in AAA, for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Only seven of his hits (six doubles, one triple) were for extra bases. His batting average of .298 looks excellent, but it was considerably inflated by an unsustainable .350 BABIP. Looking at the rest of his statline:
2011: .315 OBP, .364 SLG, .301 wOBA, 81 wRC+
Perhaps even more disturbing is a 2.4 BB%, which indicates that Galvis is sorely lacking in patience, a requisite trait for a singles-only hitter. If Galvis could produce that statline at the MLB level, his strong defense would make him an adequate stopgap measure. But, adjusting for the difference between AAA and MLB, and regressing his BABIP a sustainable level, show a player just not ready to hit at the MLB level. The RotoChamp projection of .270 OBP, .305 SLG, and .257 wOBA is truly frightening. Giving a substantial number of plate appearances to a bat of that quality would be very damaging to the Phillies' offense.
Besides the anemic bat, there are other reasons to keep Galvis in AAA, at least for the time being. A failed stint in MLB could harm Galvis' confidence, and devalue him as a potential trade piece. Playing him a full season at the AAA level should be beneficial to Galvis' continued development with the bat, while also delaying the start of his personal arbitration clock. The best currently-rostered 2B option is Ty Wigginton, who, while well below average with the glove, projects to a wOBA in the .315-range, substantially better than Galvis' .257 projected wOBA. Hopefully, Amaro is truly looking into alternatives, because it's difficult to see how entering the season with Galvis as the starting 2B is a good idea.
With the injuries to All-Star 2B Chase Utley, and AA-quality utility infielder Michael Martinez, there has been some complaint about the Phillies' offseason decision to trade AAA-quality utility infielder Wilson Valdez. Though Valdez' two unaccomplished seasons on the Phillies' payroll left a sizeable statistical trail supporting Phillies' General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr.'s decision to dump Valdez for salary relief, it seems some have forgotten just how little Valdez contributed to the Phils' roster. Let's have a quick look:
2010: .306 OBP, .360 SLG, .294 wOBA, 77 wRC+
2011: .294 OBP, .294 OBP, .274 wOBA, 67 wRC+
Ugly, right? It's amazing that the Phillies managed two division titles, despite allowing Valdez an unconscionable 663 plate appearances. Defensively, Valdez paired a very strong arm with the knowledge of where on the infield to stand, whether asked to play "shortstop", "second base", or "third base."
Heading into his Age 34 season, the projection systems are not particularly bullish on Valdez for 2012:
Steamer: .278 OBP, .306 SLG, .259 wOBA
Bill James: .306 OBP, .324 SLG, .275 wOBA
ZiPS: .298 OBP, .332 SLG, .276 wOBA
There was no reason for the Phillies to pay Valdez $930K to post these execrable numbers, when there are better, cheaper options literally growing on trees. (Not "good" options exactly, but pretty much all non-Michael Martinez alternatives are better options than Wilson Valdez.)
Prior to the 2011 MLB season, the Boston Red Sox acquired 1B Adrian Gonzalez from the San Diego Padres, in exchange for three highly-regarded minor league prospects. Despite Gonzalez' status of one of MLB's elite hitters, it was an expensive price to pay, considering that Gonzalez would be eligible for free agency after the season. (Gonzalez was under contract only for 2011, at a bargain salary of $6.2MM.)
In the 48 hours prior to the announcement of the trade, the Red Sox met with Gonzalez' agent, John Boggs. The two parties did not come to a long-term agreement, but sources indicated that there was "enough common ground for a deal to be struck." On April 16, 2011, two weeks into the regular season, the Red Sox announced that they had reached an agreement with Gonzalez, on a 7 year, $154 million deal.
The timing of the new contract announcement was extremely advantageous for the Red Sox. If they had announced a deal prior to the start of the regular season, Gonzalez would have counted for $20.025MM towards the 2011 luxury tax (8 years/$160.2 MM= $20.025MM "cap hit"). But announcing a deal after the 2011 season started kept Gonzalez' 2011 salary, for luxury tax purposes, at only $6.2MM. This gave the Red Sox more room under the 2011 luxury tax threshold, and more time to determine how to accommodate Gonzalez' $22MM salary, in subsequent seasons. This scenario is eerily similar to the Phillies' current situation with LHP Cole Hamels, and it wouldn't be surprising if it plays out in a similar fashion.
(Note: The 2011 Red Sox did wind up over the luxury tax threshold, incurring a 30% penalty on the amount of the overage, as it was the second consecutive season in which they exceeded the threshold. The timing of the Gonzalez deal saved them $4.1475MM in penalties (($20.025MM- $6.2M) x .3)).
Should the Phillies try to retain Hamels for the long-term?
Short answer: Definitely. It often seems that Hamels doesn't get enough credit as he should, as a result of pitching in the same rotation as aces Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. But Hamels is coming off another stellar season (5th in MLB xFIP: 3.02), and he is only entering his Age 29 season. Hamels is one of MLB's best, and is just entering his prime seasons. It is not unrealistic to think that, barring injury, he could be a top pitcher for at least the next five seasons. With Halladay and Lee now in their mid-thirties, retaining Hamels would ensure that the Phillies still have a #1 starter, even if (when) Halladay and Lee decline.
The Phillies have plenty of money, why don't they just announce a Hamels extension right now?
The Phillies definitely have plenty of money to sign pretty much whomever they want these days. They do, however, want to stay under the luxury cap threshold in 2012. Exceeding the cap in 2012, by any amount, results in a 20% tax penalty on the amount of the overage. But, perhaps more importantly, if the Phillies exceed the cap in 2012 AND in 2013, the penalty on the 2013 overage will be applied at 30%. Given the Phillies' rising revenues, and the contract situations pending for 2013 (Pence arbitration, Victorino free agency), it wouldn't be surprising if the Phillies were planning to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2013, but want to keep the '13 penalty at 20%.
Can the Phillies afford a long-term deal with Hamels?
Of course. With a huge television contract coming relatively soon, the Phillies have plenty of money to retain Hamels, even if they have to "overpay."
Does it make sense for Hamels to agree with the Phillies, rather than test free agency?
As a free agent, Hamels would certainly attract a lot of interest. With multiple teams in the running for his services, his future salary should be driven up. However, Hamels has a good situation in Philadelphia. He pitches for a habitual contender, with a packed stadium every night, with a veteran team where the pressure is shared. Hamels would be paid like a #1 starter for the Phillies, but would not face the level of pressure he likely would with another organization.
The biggest reason that Hamels should agree to a deal with the Phillies, as soon as possible, is the potential of an injury. Hamels might get a few more million by waiting for free agency, but an injury in 2012 could cost him $100s of millions.
It makes too much sense for both sides to agree to a deal, shortly after the season begins. The Phillies can afford to "overpay", especially in the latter years of a long-term contract, when the new television contract takes their revenues through the metaphorical roof. Waiting for free agency is a totally unecessary gamble for Cole Hamels. A "reasonable" deal for Hamels would likely be in the neighborhood of 5 years/$100MM ($20MM AAV). Don't be surprised to see an agreement announced in mid-April, in a "much less reasonable" neighborhood. A 7 year/$160MM deal ($18MM-$20MM-$20MM-$22MM-$24MM-$28MM-$28MM) seems about right.
The Phillies avoided arbitration with Kyle Kendrick on Friday, agreeing to a $3.585MM deal for 2012. The right-hander is expected to serve as a long reliever, and as insurance for the starting rotation. Kendrick, who made $2.45MM in 2011, would likely have made between $3 and $4MM in arbitration, so $3.585MM seems a somewhat reasonable compromise. However, should the Phillies have offered Kendrick arbitration in the first place?
How good has Kendrick been in recent years?
2010: 180.2 IP, 4.73 ERA
2011: 114.2 IP, 3.22 ERA
Looking at these stats, it looks like Kendrick had a bad 2010, followed by a strong 2011. But ERA can be a somewhat deceptive stat, as it often affected by factors outside of a pitcher's control. More importantly, ERA is not particularly useful as a predictive stat, and the Phillies need to determine how valuable Kendrick is likely to be in 2012. Let's look at some additional stats, some of which have a bit more predictive value than ERA:
(BABIP is "batting average on balls in play." A pitcher with neutral luck should expect to have a BABIP of about .300. Pitchers with a BABIP below .300 has been lucky, and it is likely that their BABIP will regress towards .300, in the future. This regression would likely result in a higher ERA.)
(LOB% is "left on base percentage." A pitcher with neutral luck should expect to have a LOB% of about 70%. Pitchers with a LOB% above 70% has been lucky, and it is likely that their LOB% will regress towards 70%, in the future. This regression would likely result in a higher ERA.)
(xFIP is a predictive statistic that attempts to show what a pitcher's ERA would have been, if it was adjusted for the effects of factors outside a pitcher's control. It assumes an average BABIP and LOB%. If you are attempting to determine how well a pitcher is likely to perform in the following season, xFIP is a much better choice than ERA.)
Kendrick was fortunate in terms of BABIP in both 2010 and 2011. In 2010, he was slightly unlucky in LOB%, and lucky in LOB % in 2011. His xFIPs of 4.62 in 2010, and 4.42 in 2011, imply that he was a very mediocre pitcher in both seasons.
One more important point: Kendrick hardly strikes anyone out. His K/9 rates are consistently among the worst in the NL. As someone who rarely records strikeouts, Kendrick is extremely dependent upon his BABIP luck, since most opposing batters put the ball in play.
While BABIP/LOB% could have an advantageous (or disadvantageous) effect on Kendrick in 2012, his ERA will most likely be in the 4.5 range. It seems that $3.585MM is a bit much to pay for a 4.50 ERA pitcher, but what were the alternatives to offering arbitration to Kendrick?
Alternative #1: Find an internal solution.
Earlier this offseason, the Phillies signed veteran right-hander Dave Bush to a non-guaranteed contract, with an invitation to Spring Training. If Bush makes the parent club, he is likely to earn in the $600K- $1MM range. Bush posted a 2010 xFIP of 4.72 (Kendrick: 4.62), and a 2011 xFIP of 4.20 (Kendrick 4.42). Bush and Kendrick could be expected to post similar 2012 numbers, though Bush stands to make at least $2.5MM less. The Phillies could have hedged a bet on Bush by adding some additional arms on non-guaranteed minor league contracts.
Alternative #2: Sign free agent Roy Oswalt to a one-year deal, for $6-8MM.
Oswalt's worst xFIP was in an injury-plagued 2011. But the 3.95 xFIP Oswalt posted last season (career xFIP: 3.58) was still substantially better than Kendrick's 4.42 xFIP. Oswalt will likely be far superior to Kendrick in 2012, and is certainly worth the extra $2.5-4.5MM in expected 2012 salary.
Alternative #3: Sign Kyle Kendrick, or another free agent pitcher with similar expected 2012 stats, to a deal in the $1.5MM range.
A pitcher with an expected xFIP in the 4.5 range does have value. Just not $3.585MM in value.
When the Phillies had to make their arbitration decision on Kyle Kendrick, it did not seem likely that a pitcher of Roy Oswalt's stature would be available for a one-year commitment. But pitchers similar to Kyle Kendrick (like Bush) were available at a fraction of Kendrick's arbitration cost. While that extra ~$2-$3M may not seem like a lot, the Phillies are closing in on the luxury tax threshold, a payroll level they are unlikely to exceed. The opportunity cost of signing Kendrick at $3.585MM may be the inability to afford a $4MM setup reliever/partial salary dump 3B (David Wright?) at the trade deadline. More importantly, whether you are extending the contract of a first baseman, or avoiding arbitration with a long reliever, paying ~350% over market price is just not smart business.
The Phillies' signing of reliever Jonathan Papelbon to a free agent contract worth a minimum of $50MM (4 years/$50MM, with a $12MM option for Year 5) was surprising this early in the offseason. Was it a smart acquisition by the Phillies? Let's look at the pros and cons of the move.
Reasons why the Papelbon signing was a good move:
1.Papelbon was the best elite free agent reliever available.
Just look at Papelbon's stats in 2011: 12.17 K/9, 8.70 BB/9, 2.16 xFIP. Simply incredible numbers. Ryan Madson is an elite reliever, and I would argue that he was the second best reliever available in free agency. Papelbon is better, and it's not especially close.
2. GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. was determined to sign an elite "closer."
Amaro indicated early that he had every intention of signing an elite closer. His aggressive decision to sign Papelbon during the first week of free agency serves as evidence that he was determined to pursue this course of action (and not merely posturing via the media). Amaro succeeded in signing the best reliever available.
Reasons why the Papelbon signing was not a good move:
1. At four years, and $50 million, it was an overpay of massive proportions.
Papelbon is a great reliever. But he will likely pitch fewer than seventy innings next season. As long as Charlie Manuel continues to let the save rule govern his bullpen decisions, many of those innings won't even be the highest leverage innings. Even if Papelbon was used in the most optimal way, it's highly unlikely that he (or any reliever) could merit an expenditure of that size.
2. Relievers' performances frequently vary from year to year.
The majority of relievers see their effectiveness vary from year to year. In any four-year period, many will miss time due to injury, and/or see their effectiveness reduced due to injury concerns. Papelbon has been outstanding for each of the last six seasons, but there is no guarantee that he will (or won't) remain outstanding for the next four. If he does miss time, or lose some of his effectiveness, the contract will look even worse. The Phillies spent the last three seasons with a declining $12.5MM "closer" on their payroll. Hopefully, the Papelbon deal won't be reminiscent of the disastrous Lidge deal. (Or worse. If Papelbon sustained a career-ending injury in Year 2, the Phils would spend $25MM in Years 3 and 4 for zero production. As Papelbon is signed for his Age 32 through Age 35 seasons, the potential for injury may be even higher.)
3. The signing affects the Phillies' ability to sign additional free agents, in the short-term.
(The Phillies, despite their recent personnel moves, do not have an infinitely sized payroll. It's likely that they will only spend up to the luxury tax threshold (of $185MM in 2012?).)
Papelbon's $12.5MM contract is similar to the expiring contract of middle reliever Brad Lidge. It has been argued that the Phillies simply "gave Lidge's money to Papelbon." This is an oversimplification. The Phillies' payroll did decrease, as a result of the expiring contracts of Lidge, Raul Ibanez, Jimmy Rollins, and Roy Oswalt. However, the Phillies approached the offseason with the following needs: SS, LF, OF/1B (to cover during Ryan Howard's recovery period), reliever(s), bench. Additionally, Cole Hamels and Hunter Pence will receive raises ($3MM each?) Cliff Lee is scheduled for a $10.5MM raise from 2010, while Shane Victorino's salary increases by $2MM. The Phillies did have some money to spend, but putting so much of those funds into Papelbon's contract effectively reduced the quality/quantity of additional free agent acquisitions (though this may not be transparent).
4. The signing affects the Phillies' ability to sign additional free agents, in the longer term.
(The Phillies, despite their recent personnel moves, do not have an infinitely sized payroll. It's likely that they will only spend up to the luxury tax threshold (of $185MM in 2012/$190MM in 2013?).)
The Phillies, with the addition of the Papelbon contract, now have $92.5MM guaranteed to five players for 2013. (Halladay: $20MM, Howard: $20MM, Lee: $25MM, Utley: $15MM, Papelbon: $12.5MM). That will likely be approximately half of their available payroll for 2013, with twenty roster spots still to be filled. After 2012, ace starter Cole Hamels will be a free agent, and would likely require approximately $18MM/yr. to retain. Elite center fielder Shane Victorino will be a free agent, and can expect a contract worth $12-$15MM/yr. Slightly above average right fielder Hunter Pence will be arbitration-eligible, and can expect a contract in the $12-$15MM/yr. range. Before the Papelbon signing, retaining these players would have been extremely difficult. Now, the Phillies will likely only be able to afford one of these three free agents. (Hopefully, it will be Hamels!)
5. The $12.5MM spent on Papelbon could have been better spent elsewhere.
With many veteran relievers available in free agency this offseason, it should be a Buyer's market. For $12.5MM, the Phils could have gotten two good relievers. If they had given these hypothetical relievers two-year contracts, the Phils could have reduced their risk exposure (not locked into paying these relievers for Years 3 and 4, as they are with Papelbon). With Antonio Bastardo, Philippe Aumont, and Justin De Fratus as young (cheap) bullpen options, the Phils could have evaluated their situation after the 2013 season, and signed new free agent relievers/selected internal (cheaper) options. The money saved by filling high leverage roles with their young (cheap) relievers could have been spent elsewhere. If you are just considering the 2012 season, the Phillies could have likely spent $6-8MM on a "Joe Nathan-type" for 2012, and put the $4.5-$6.5MM "saved" towards other needs. A shortstop, perhaps?
6. Papelbon probably could have been signed at a lower cost.
Amaro decided he wanted Papelbon, and raced to overpay him, despite the Buyer's market for relievers. Only a limited number of teams can afford a $10MM+ closer. By waiting, and using the leverage the market provided, Amaro likely could have reduced the yearly outlay to Papelbon. More importantly, he might have been able to reduce the number of guaranteed years. Even reducing the contract from four years (+option), to three years would have been a significant improvement.
Jonathan Papelbon was the best free agent reliever available. With the possible exception of Mariano Rivera, there is probably no reliever the Phillies would rather have pitching the ninth inning. However, Papelbon comes at an exorbitantly high price, both in salary, and in the associated opportunity cost (probable inability to retain other players, as a result of Papelbon contract). Amaro got his preferred closer, but the organization will likely face future repercussions as a result.
When St. Louis Cardinals Manager Tony LaRussa announced his postseason pitching rotation, there was jubilation- among the Phillies' fanbase. As Cardinals' ace Chris Carpenter pitched in the division-clinching win on Wednesday, he will be unable to pitch until Game 3. But LaRussa also made the surprising move of holding his 2nd best starter, lefthander Jaime Garcia, until Game 4. Given that this is a five-game series, LaRussa faces the possibility of not even being able to use his #2 starter. Is this a case of LaRussa being "too smart for his own good", or has his selected pitching order actually increased his team's chances of winning the series?
Some important business, before we look at some numbers:
The Phillies have a sizeable starting pitching advantage over St. Louis. All LaRussa can look to do is to attempt to minimize this advantage. THERE IS NO PITCHING ORDER LARUSSA CAN USE, THAT WILL GIVE THE CARDINALS THE STARTING PITCHING ADVANTAGE.
There is a lot of randomness inherent in a short playoff series. The "better" team won't win every series, in fact the "better" team might win the series just 55-65% of the time.
If the Cards win the series, it doesn't "prove" that LaRussa chose the right pitching order. Likewise, if the Cards lose the series, it doesn't necessarily mean LaRussa's pitching order was poorly-chosen.
Let's look at the Cards' "ideal" pitching rotation (The order that pitches the "best" available pitchers (no short-rest starts) as soon as possible, and as often as possible.):
"Ideal" Rotation
Game 1: Halladay v. Lohse at PHI Guesstimated STL Win Probability: 35%
Game 2: Lee v. Garcia at PHI Guesstimated STL Win Probability: 40%
Game 3: Hamels v. Carpenter at STL Guesstimated STL Win Probability: 55%
Game 4: Oswalt v. Jackson at STL Guesstimated STL Win Probability: 55%
Game 5: Halladay v. Garcia at PHI Guesstimated STL Win Probability: 40%
So, what's the probability that the Cardinals win at least three of these games? Well, it's easier to figure out the probability that the Phillies win two games or less, so let's calculate that probability.
P (Two PHI wins or less)= P (Zero PHI wins) + P (One PHI Win) + P (Two PHI Wins)
P (Zero PHI wins)= P(Loss, Loss, Loss)= (.35)(.40)(.55)= .077, or 7.7%
P (One PHI win)= P(Win, Loss, Loss, Loss) + P (Loss, Win, Loss, Loss) + P (Loss, Loss, Win, Loss)
P (Two PHI wins) = P (WWLLL) + P (WLWLL) + P (LWWLL) + P (LLWWL)
=.047 + .026 + .025 + .011= .109, or 10.9%
So, the P (STL wins series, with "ideal" rotation)= .077 + .178 + .109 = .364, or 36.4%
We've determined that the "ideal" rotation gives St. Louis a 36.4% chance of winning the series. Are they better off with the pitching rotation LaRussa has chosen?
Selected Rotation:
Game 1: Halladay v. Lohse at PHI Guesstimated STL Win Probability: 35%
Game 2: Lee v. Jackson at PHI Guesstimated STL Win Probability: 35%
Game 3: Hamels v. Carpenter at STL Guesstimated STL Win Probability: 55%
Game 4: Oswalt v. Garcia at STL Guesstimated STL Win Probability: 60%
Game 5: Halladay v. Lohse at PHI Guesstimated STL Win Probability: 35%
Once again,
P (Two PHI wins or less)= P (Zero PHI wins) + P (One PHI Win) + P (Two PHI Wins)
P (Zero PHI wins)= P(Loss, Loss, Loss)= (.35) (.35) (.55) = .067, or 6.7%
P (One PHI win)= P(Win, Loss, Loss, Loss) + P (Loss, Win, Loss, Loss) + P (Loss, Loss, Win, Loss)
P (Two PHI wins) = P (WWLLL) + P (WLWLL) + P (LWWLL) + P (LLWWL)
= .049 + .021 + .021 + .008 = .099, or 9.9%
So, the P (STL wins series, with the selected rotation)= .067 + .183 + .099 = .349, or 34.9%
Takeaways
The "Guesstimated Win Probabilities" are guesses. Pretty much just looked at pitching matchups/ballparks, and made them up. But even when homefield advantage and pitching matchup are both heavily tilted in one team's direction, the underdog still has, perhaps, a one-in-three chance of winning a single game. The effects of randomness are much more powerful than most suspect. (This randomness is how pitchers as skilled as Cole Hamels wind up with a 74-54 lifetime record (57.8% Win Pct.). Winning percentage is not a good stat to judge an individual pitcher's abilities, but it does serve to illustrate the fact that randomness, as well as factors unrelated to the choice of starting pitcher, weigh heavily in final outcomes).
With the information we have, LaRussa is better off giving Garcia (his second best pitcher) two starts, rather than giving Lohse two starts. (There may be information we do not have, however. Or, maybe LaRussa feels that, under the current circumstances, Lohse is a better pitcher than Garcia.)
LaRussa appears to be trading a better chance at winning a possible Game 5, for a better chance at getting to a Game 5. (Given that the Phillies are favored, reducing the series to a single game, and hoping randomness is on St. Louis' side at the end, seems a viable strategy.)
LaRussa's strategy could be to "steal" one of the first two games, then hope to win the series in four games (with relatively advantageous matchups in Game 3 and Game 4).
LaRussa may have additional information that he factored into his Win Probability calculations. (What will the availability/effectiveness of injured players Matt Holliday and Rafael Furcal be, particularly early in the series? Will the additional rest for Garcia, who has already thrown thirty more innings than in 2010, tilt the win probabilities further in St. Louis' direction? Perhaps he sees an advantage to keeping Garcia away from CBP? Perhaps Garcia is even fighting an injury concern?)
Conclusion
LaRussa's strategy may, or may not, be a smart one. It may, or may not, be successful in the one five-game series being played. But it doesn't appear to be a stupid strategy, as the current popular opinion appears to be. Plus, there very may well be more factors that LaRussa is considering, of which we are currently unaware.
